Scottish Grand National 2015

[Zipster]

The Scottish Grand National takes place this weekend at Ayr so it is time to start having a look at things to see if we can find the winner.

Micko already has his trends up in his blog which you can find here.

Just a couple of bits and pieces, if looking at those who ran in the Grand National and then went to the Scottish National, the last winner came back in 2005 and since 35 have attempted it and failed with only 2 of those placing and the only 2 winners in the past 18 years both finished in the first 5 of the Grand National.

Those who failed to finish the National before coming to the Scottish National have a record of 0-52 in the past 18 years and only 4 have gone on to place.

There has actually been more winners in the past 18 years of this race coming from those who ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out and in fact 2 of the last 4 winners (Godsmejudge & Beshabar) both did just that and they also had 3rd placed Trustan Times last year.

You have two of the four Grand National reserves still left with declarations for this race in Baileys Concerto and Raz De Maree, could they put their disappointments of not getting into the Grand National final 40 by going on to success in this race?

I will have more to add once the field is narrowed down a bit more.

[Zipster]

I am switching things up slight when looking at the trends for this year’s race, the first phase will consists of looking at trends based on places so instead of solely looking at the winners, I shall be looking at all those runners who have placed in the past 18 years of the race and 54 of the 71 runners who have placed done so qualifying by the following factors.

• • Aged between 6yo-13yo
  • No older than 5 years than the youngest runner
  • Official Rating between 122 & 157
  • OR Vs Last Time Out – Down 6lbs to Up 13lbs
  • OR Vs Last Win – Not down more than 2lbs
  • Weight between 9-7 & 11-10
  • Best in Three of 6th or better
  • Highest Class Run of either Class 2 or Graded
  • Minimum Previous trip of 3m½f run
  • No Bigger than 16 compared to last run
  (ie 6/1 last time out, 33/1 for this is a fail)
  • Either finished in the first 7 lto or failed to complete

This narrows the field down to 15 runners which are Lie Forrit, Al Co, Milborough, Indian Castle, Sego Success, Broadway Buffalo, Samstown, Raz De Maree, Baileys Concerto, The Last Samuri, Gallant Oscar, Global Power, Summery Justice, Benbens and Carrigdhoun.

The next stage I shall dig deeper into the trends to try and narrow down these 15 runners to a more realistic shortlist.

[Micko70]

Cheers Zipster

15 still left, wow, at least i have mine down to 4, good luck going through that lot and with your final selections

[Zipster]

A continuation from the previous post where we were left with 15 runners and I shall now dig deeper to get these down to a more realistic number.

First of all I am looking at what they did last time out in term of position and there have been 25 runners in this race who Unseated their rider last time out and none of those have gone on to win and only 1 of those has placed (4%) and this will eliminate Al Co, Summery Justice and Benbens.

Runners who had not won over 3m+ have a record of 1 winner from 44 and only filled 4 places (9%), this would take out just Baileys Concerto who also ran at Kelso lto and those who did that are 0-28.

Taking a closer look at the weight and those off 10-6 to 10-8 have produced 1 winner from 41 runners and only 3 places (7%) and this will remove another two runners which are Milborough and Indian Castle.

This means we have now narrowed the field from 15 down to just 9 runners, a few more factors and we have have it down to better number!

Look at just the last 5 years of the race, all 5 winners and 19 of the 20 placings were filled by runners who had previous had 10+ starts over fences in the UK/IRE which takes out Sego Success, Broadway Buffalo, The Last Samuri and Gallant Oscar, also all 5 winner and 17 of the 20 placings were filled by runners who had run 3-7 times that season which takes out Carrigdhoun.

Staying with the last 5 years and only 1 runner has placed from a total of 18 when running off a handicap mark of 147+ which eliminates Lie Forrit and runners who fell last time out have not placed in the race since 2006 and only 1 from 5 has finished the race since 2011 so that takes out Global Power.

That leaves us with just two runners which are....
Samstown (25/1 with most firms)
Raz De Maree (33/1 with most firms)

**Remember that the trends are strongly based on places so I would advise anyone going with these two runners to do so either Win/Place or Each Way.

Good Luck All

[jumptoit]

Galant oscar

Bred to stay
Super paul carbury in the plate (perfect jockey)
Fantastic weight
Wins or at least a place
Take 10/1 ew 5places with bet365

[deswalker]

Simply cannot believe that Raz De Maree is still 33/1 for the race... I thought he was a live outsider for Aintree if he got in. I honestly don't care if he wins, loses or dead heats... the price is too big!

[Zipster]

Simply cannot believe that Raz De Maree is still 33/1 for the race... I thought he was a live outsider for Aintree if he got in. I honestly don't care if he wins, loses or dead heats... the price is too big!

I remember you were keen on him for the GN as I was for Baileys Concerto and neither made it into the field but both run in the Scottish National, I wouldn't say that I was as confident for Baileys Concerto but I shall be backing him again.

[jaydubs]

I do like my trends but there is one in the race i have liked for a while .. I had it ante post for the National but was pulled early...

Trustan times finshed 3rd in this race last year just a length back and races off 2lbs lower this year... Fits quite a lot of the trends apart from the winning a race this year and lto placed. from Micko's and just on the lto on Zips...

It raced in the pertemps final at Cheltenham again this year following the same path as last year.. obviously finished 4th in the pertemps before going to 3rd last year while finishing down the field this year. Distance and ground will be no problem and it has been sparingly used chasing again this season. Its 3 chases this year have been in 2 x grade 3's and a listed designed to get the mark down a few pounds so it still gets in but is off near bottom weight.

16-1 looks a big price... not the greatest at winning but should be there or thereabouts.

[deswalker]

What do you make of the cheekpieces applied for the first time jay?

[Zipster]

What do you make of the cheekpieces applied for the first time jay?

The Easterby yard for first time headgear in NH races are...

2013: 2-4 (50%) +2.23
2014: 2-4 (50%) +2.38
2015: 1-2 (50%) +1.75

So it does not seem beyond doubt that they could work and they have actually had 5 winners from the last 8 sent out in first time headgear in NH races and only 3 of the last 10 have failed to place.

[jaydubs]

Cheers Zip....

Yeah as with Cheltenham I like the first time headgear / cheekpieces... we will see

[deswalker]

Now that is interesting...