GRAND NATIONAL 2015

The Executioner
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Postby The Executioner » Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:11 pm

whats the point of having reserves??

39 runners , 4 resrves!

yes, i fancied the first reserve.. rant over.
Unfortunately the cut off time is 10.00am on Friday and after that the reserves are deemed to have been balloted out. Tremendously unlucky for connections of horse number 41 . their dream snatched away.

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Postby Zipster » Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:15 pm

I have split the trends into four sections, the first sections contains the horse data, such things are age, weight, class/run data, the second set contains what the runners did in the race prior to the GN, the third set contains what the runners did on their debuts and the final set contains career runs, wins etc…

*OddsToRunnersRatio is Odds divided by number of runners.
**All data if for UK/IRE Runs only.


Set 1: Horse Data
Fifteen of the last eighteen winners all fell under ALL the following factors…
  • • Were aged between 9yo-11yo
    • Ran off weight of between 10-0 & 11-7
    • Had previously ran in a Graded Race
    • Had previously won a Class 2 or higher
    • Did not move up 1m1f-1m3f in trip
    • Had previous run over 3m1f-4m4f
    • Had previously won over 3m-4m2f
Those who fall under those factors are:
  • Soll, Godsmejudge, Alvarado, Royale Knight, Al Co, Chance du Roy, Wyck Hill, The Rainbow Hunter and Portrait King.
Set 2: Last Time Out
All of the last eighteen winners fell under ALL the following factors…
  • • Ran in a race with Prize Money of now more than £75,000
    • Ran off a weight of between 10-10 & 11-12
    • Ran in a race which was 16-60 days ago
    • Went into the race on the back of a break of between 6-120 days
    • Ran in a race where the Max OR was between 92-159
    • Ran in a race where the Average OR was between 55-144
    • Ran in a race where there were 0-9 Non Completers
    • Ran in a race where 0-12 runners had since run
    • Ran in a race where 0-1 winners have come out of the race
    • Ran in a race where the OddsToRunnersRatio was between 0.11-2.25*
    • Was not at any of these tracks – Aintree, Ascot, Chepstow, Gowran Park, Kempton, Navan, Newbury, Sandown or Warwick
Those who fall under those factors are:
  • The Druids Nephew, Cause Of Causes, Godsmejudge, First Lieutenant, Pineau De Re, Al Co, , Monbeg Dude, Wyck Hill, Rubi Light, Oscar Time, Bob Ford, Gas Line Boy, Portrait King & Owega Star.
Set 3: Debut Data
Eleven of the last eighteen winners fell under ALL the following factors…
  • • Made their debut in a NH race
    • Made their debut over 2m-3m2f
    • Made their debut between 4yo-9yo
    • Finished in the first seven on debut
    • Their debut was NOT in a Class 1 race
    • Their debut was NOT at any of the following tracks – Ascot, Ayr, Cheltenham, Exeter, Gowran Park, Hereford, Kelso, Kempton, Sandown, Towcester, Wetherby, Wincanton or Worcester
    • They were NOT 3rd in the betting market on debut
Those who fall under those factors are:
  • Shutthefrontdoor, Soll, Unioniste, Alvarado, Night In Milan, Monbeg Dude, Super Duty & Bob Ford.
Set 4: Career Data
Sixteen of the last eighteen winner all fell under ALL the following factors….
  • • Made 1-4 starts in the past 90 days
    • Made 3-10 starts that season
    • Made 3-10 starts in the past 1 year
    • NOT made 15-18 starts in their career
    • NOT made 3 starts at Aintree
    • Made 11-46 starts at ‘Galloping’ tracks
    • Had won 4-10 times in their career
    • Had won 0-3 times on the going
    • Had won 0-2 times that season
    • Had won 1-6 times at tracks with ‘Sharp’ bends
    • Had a Place Strike Rate of 33%+ for the Trainer
Those who fall under those factors are:
  • Rocky Creek, Cause Of Causes, Godsmejudge, Night In Milan, First Lieutenant, Royale Knight, Pineau De Re, Monbeg Dude, Rebel Rebellion, Lord Windermere, Across The Bay, Rubi Light & Owega Star.
Conclusion
There are two runners who come out on 3 of the 4 filters, these are Alan Kings GODSMEJUDGE who is a previous winner of the Scottish Grand National and is currently priced up at 16/1, he has a record of 4-10 wins when returning from a 16-30 day break. The other runner is MONBEG DUDE who is 25/1 and from the Michael Scudamore yard and he is a previous Welsh National winner and has experience over the national fences having finished 7th last year and I shall be backing the pair the them.

Away from those above I shall also be backing Chance du Roy again this year, put him up last year when 6th in the race, he has probably the most experience over these fences in this field and he is also 2lbs lower than he was last year.

Good Luck all! :hope:
Last edited by Zipster on Sat Apr 11, 2015 9:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby jaydubs » Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:41 pm

I have gone through all the different trends people have put up on here. All that i can find on line the predicted ground and a bit of gut feeling but I have a short list of 7

Godsmejudge - backed this months ago
Al Co
Royale Knight
First Lieutenant
St Are
Monbeg Dude
Chance du Roy - backed this last year and would be gutted if it went a few better this

I am going to take advantage of the 365 offer to get half my money back and will narrow this down a couple before my final decision.. but feeling positvie (fingers crossed) the winner and a couple of places will be from this list

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Postby ken678 » Sat Apr 11, 2015 6:18 am

First up – as they always say – lets hope they all, horses and jockeys, come back safe and sound.

I fear they may not though since the do-gooders and know-nothings have so bastardised the race as to make it virtually indistinguishable from any other long distance chase – save for the green fences – and the enormous prize money. Because the fences have become so much easier (a) the horses are always going that much quicker than they used to, with the predictable result that there are more casualties when they meet a fence wrong and (b) because the emphasis is now more on speed “the wrong sort of horsesâ€￾ are encouraged to run. Almost flat-bred some of them and not the stamp of horse that is the traditional hunter type that use to run.

I was lucky enough to know Des Dartnall, current trainer Vic Datrnall's father, who had been in racing all his life from the age of about 14 and he was always adamant that a horse “was no good for the Nationalâ€￾ unless you could put a bowler hat between its front legs! Quite apart from the problem of finding the bowler hats these days you'd be hard put to perform that operation on many of today' s whippets – no breadth across the chest and no bone

[The rant endeth here!]

What will win – no idea like the rest of us, though that's not strictly true. Plenty of ideas but still quite sure that any one of those not chosen could, quite easily, hack up. My modest six against the field are Shutthefrontdoor, Soil, Alvarado, Saint Are, Al Co and MON PARRAIN. I will have a modest swinger/forecast combination on them (this is how of course Mrs Bookie gets her fur coat!) and my main punt will be on MON PARRAIN, the bookies tremble!

AP's is mainly on the list simply because it is AP and there can't be many of us that would not love to see him pull it off. The price is such though that I don't think it is a “seriousâ€￾ bet but good luck to him – and these fairy stories materialise in all sport often enough.

If he doesn't then maybe there will still be plenty for the journos to get excited about. AP's heir apparent is surely Twiston-Davies in the near term but maybe Sean Bowen a year or two down the line. He rides my pick and with all the caveats of course Paul Nicholls has shown that his string is in such great heart that we must have some sort of a chance – at a tasty price - and he ticks so many of the "National boxes"

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:31 am

First agree
First up – as they always say – lets hope they all, horses and jockeys, come back safe and sound. :yes: ...

Well selected mine now..
And done couple of fairy tale story ones obviously not the popular one.
Which are:
1: Oscar Time the oldest horse in race age 14..
He can make history, if he comes in!! what a story that be.
And Oscar still winning, won here in December place couple times
in National, and got his Jockey likes Aintree to, want surprise me
if he runs a big race, has place claims..
Oher one is First Lieutenant nice 25/1 shot done ante-post.
Love to see a lady jockey win the National, she having great week
at Aintree this week, of coming first woman to win it!!

My ante post bet
Balthhazar King 25/1, expect another great run for him today,
2nd last year, can he go one better, like Rummy did..
Many Clouds 33/1 was hoping he would win the Gold cup,
maybe the ground was drying out, did well finish 6th,got last
year winning jockey on him, that will help many,so kept
faith and stuck with Many :yes: like he might want longer trip.
Has place claims, if avoid traffic problems, and settle in race to.

Chance Du Roy, also like another 33/1 shot,right age 6th last
year, has place claims..
Done Across The Bay 50/1,kept faith in him to, he was unlucky
last year, below par this season, but Aintree can put sparkle in him,
capture his form.

Now sit back and relax, gl everyone..

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Postby deswalker » Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:38 am

My 5 against the field are...

1. Rocky Creek - really a tremendous chance I feel. Ran very well last year for a young horse (in National terms) and he looks stronger this year I think. Officially well handicapped, he is sure to run well I think.

2. Godsmejudge - Hits every stat for the race, and I think he will run very well. Officially handicapped to reverse with...

3. Al Co - His mark has been carefully protected since last year's Scottish National win. The one big question mark is his no show in the Becher over these fences, but that was on winter ground and he really wants proper spring stuff.

4. Monbeg Dude - I wouldn't have been too excited about him at 20/1 but at 50/1 he's a must bet. He ran perfectly well last year, after getting stuck a bit too far behind, and the stable are in much better form this year. Liam Treadwell a good booking I feel in Scu's absence.

5. Super Duty - Anything can happen in the National... that's nonsense, but this horse could be chucked in on his Novice form. I think he has a chance of staying, he didn't look a non-stayer when second in the Kim Muir 2 years ago, and Ian Williams seems very happy with him. Positives for a huge outsider.

I've had loads of savers as well, as I always do, but these are my selections.

Best of luck all!

:win:
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Postby oldmansea » Sat Apr 11, 2015 9:42 am

Traveling to Aintree for the first time aged six was a momentous occasion. The beat of the wheels, plumes of steam and bone shaking rattling that pressaged every yard and then the heaving crowds as we disembarked and the long walk through the endless smoke stained, bleak terraces to the countryside that was promised beyond after much cold tea and a solitary sandwich. Enough to overwhelm a young mind, but even then my formidable intellect had equipped me for the later years when I would take on every bookmakers challenge and make me the nemesis upon which so many bookies hopes of profit would founder.

On the very edge of the terraced streets we paused as a horse and cart dissected our column.

So may people, so much noise. There was fever in the air, not just because of a rare day out away from the claustrophic confines of the pit, but as people adjusted to the passing of the old Queen around whom so much of our history was woven and all those fears for the future.

Then everything changed. All eyes were on that giant shadow creeping towards us swallowing up the countryside and the chill as the sun was eclipsed and cast us into shivering dread. The enormous bulk of the Zeppin, so slow and so massive, loomed over us and put the world into darkness. Mesmerized I stood stock still and stared upwards at that dark whale belly. My eyes locked to that fecund swelling and transfixed, every fibre straining to drink it all in, engrave that image on my memory. Yet there was a perculiar side effect, set free to roam, licenced to wander abroad because my whole focus was on that shape, my ears were drawn to a gutteral accent speaking quickly and excitedly and emanating from an upstairs window at no. 13. I listened eyes fixed on that airship as another voice spoke,

'Calm down, calm down, I understand, really I do, you have found some sort of formula to
give you the winner of the Grand National.' A gentle, tired voice.

'Not the winner, a profit and that is much more important. I have thrown
all my energies into that and I have the perfect formula.' The speaker, a younger man I judged, with an angry but compelling voice intoned as if every word meant life or death, emphasing the words as if speaking to a crowds of thousands.

'But what about your painting? Your book?' asked the gentler, older man.

'No one understands my art and without money the book won't be published.'

'So what is this magic formula?'

They talked briefly and I heard for the first time the formula and listened to the ways it might transform their lives. I learned too, the name of the angry young man.

Moments later the shadow drifted away towards the docks and all I was left with was the image of that mighty airship and the undercurrent of excitement that ran through me after chancing on that magical formula. I only had sixpence, but by God I meant to make it pay. Years later, sitting in a bar in Valparaiso on one of many adventures the formula paid for, I saw a military type reading a book across the way in a quiet corner. I recognized the name on the cover, the name of that angry young man, Adolph Hitler, and the book, Mein Kampf, of course he wasn't remembered, except by me, as the originator of the Grand National system and sadly for the world it did pay for his book to be published.

I remember too, right to this very day, the name of that system, and the way he said it:

'I call it my, angewandter anti-Logik, um versteckte Wert zeigen!'



So what are the horses that emerge after applying all the rules to the field. They are:

Rainbow Hunter
Monbeg Dude
Royal Rebellion
Ely Brown

It is too easy to go with the herd and pick out the many that everyone will focus on and therein lies the beauty of the system. It unearths the over looked ones, the less than obvious. Never was there a more competitive race than this years, anyone of 20 could win given luck and a clear passage. The normal rules that allow us to eliminate 90% of the field do not apply, unless, that is, we use the formula. When I die, it dies with me since I have never revealed it to the world and will go to my grave with it. Use it, he gave us little else to cherish.

Good luck and may your pin fall kindly.

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Postby nors » Sat Apr 11, 2015 10:13 am

I noted last night support for Cause Of Causes and the bookies confirmed it on the Morning Line this morning, at 20/1 with bet365 or 18/1 with Bet Victor who are 6 places i will be backing that Each Way.

The race however does look top quality and i would be surprised if the form horses do not come out on top, no huge surprise for me.

The UK horses that are well handicapped according to the Official Ratings in the RP are as follows.

TODAY HORSE/WGT LIFE WIN
HIGH

154 Rocky Creek 11-3 154
149 Rebel Rebellion 10-12 149
146 The Druids Nephew 10-9 146
142 Tranquil Sea 10-5 148
141 Chance Du Roy 10-4 143
139 Soll 10-2 139

The Druids Nephew was impressive at Cheltenham and was supported that day, i would think he will be fighting out the finish on 10 stone 9. At Cheltenham he carried 11 stone 3.

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Postby The Market Man » Sat Apr 11, 2015 10:21 am

My 5 against the field are...



3. Al Co - His mark has been carefully protected since last year's Scottish National win. The one big question mark is his no show in the Becher over these fences, but that was on winter ground and he really wants proper spring stuff.

4. Monbeg Dude - I wouldn't have been too excited about him at 20/1 but at 50/1 he's a must bet. He ran perfectly well last year, after getting stuck a bit too far behind, and the stable are in much better form this year. Liam Treadwell a good booking I feel in Scu's absence.



Best of luck all!

:win:
I agree about those two and you make good points about the ground and jockey changes for the respective horses.

I reckon this might be AP's last day whatever happens. Only one booked ride after today ( which is for JP so easily scratched ) and he's cleared the two hours before the National for media etc.

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Postby sean rollings » Sat Apr 11, 2015 10:41 am

My 4 against the field are

balthazar king has won cross country races and ran well last season when second with 5IB more n his back sound jumper.12/1

soll Trainer is sweet on this and has aimed at the race is a large chaser so could run well with the rain coming. 20/1

knight in milan From a trainer who dose well with chasers and has been very consistant and jumps like a stag. Trainer has had this race in mind for him for years.28/1

gas line boy Likes to run up with the pace so if gets his own way will run a nice race at a big price i think this horse needs a conferdant ride and James Best could get a lot from him. Has won 2 races this season and if in the mood could shock. 100/1

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Postby freewinningtip » Sat Apr 11, 2015 11:10 am

Looks hard to go against Court By Surprise - especially at 40/1

:<a href='/school/betting_terminology.php'>NAP</a>: Court By Surprise
:<a href='/school/betting_terminology.php'>NB</a>: Rocky Creek
:3: Rebel Rebellion

Also had shutthefrontdoor antepost @ 33/1

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Postby yorkie69 » Sat Apr 11, 2015 11:17 am

Well here goes for another year. many have question marks with regards trip , course and ground but here are my five against the field today.

The Druids Nephew -- Looks well handicapped and the way he won at the Festival shows he won't mind a step up in trip.

Rocky Creek -- Looked cherry ripe when winning at Kempton in a good race last time and has had this as his target all year.

Soll -- His exeprience over these fences and the fact he ran really well here in the past along with a feather weight give him every chance of a massive run.

Chance Du Roy --Hs won over these fences and I tipped him up last year when many said he wouldn't stay. A good sixth then and can again run into a place.

Many Clouds -- Is a class animal and at around 40/1 has to be a small play as again some say he won't stay while i think he will surprise us. The ground could have been a little softer though.

A small mention for Spring Heeled too.

Good luck to all.

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