GRAND NATIONAL 2015

stephenjacawley
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Alvarado

Postby stephenjacawley » Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:00 pm

I really cant see Alvarado being out of the frame.We all know he finished strongly last year to finsh 4th,hes only 1lb higher this year and has been trained specifically for the race unlike some of the others.Hes only run once this year which some might find off putting, but his 2nd time out runs are impressive with figures of 111211?????? hopefully 1.Hes won on all types of ground from gf to heavy and we know Aintree wont let it get fast so no problems there.20/1 is still good value so he is my tip.gl everyone. :<a href='/school/betting_terminology.php'>NAP</a>:

arniehi
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Postby arniehi » Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:44 am

Got a message from bet365 saying they're giving half the stake back for EW bets placed from Thursday until 12:00 Saturday for the National (up to £125 returned).

bristoldoug
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Postby bristoldoug » Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:59 am

Lots of great stats and posts as usual.

People are saying the race this year is wide open - but I think you can rule half the field out by virtue of being non stayers, ground gone against them, out of form or too old.

My top 5 are.

1st - Saint Are - vibes coming out of the stable are very positive and loves the course and will love the ground.

2nd - Pineau De Re - only 11st for last years runaway winner, and trained for this race again.

3rd - Rocky Creek - had to be impressed with his win last time out - looked all over the winner last year before stamina gave out. If breathing op has done the trick then he must stand every chance. If not then it's still difficult seeing him out of the frame.

4th - Night in Milan - can see him bowling along and just fading on the run in.

5th - Owega Star - looks likely to outrun his odds

I also expect to see Godsmejudge and Carlito Brigante give it a good go without being quite good enough.

mattandbenny
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Postby mattandbenny » Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:01 pm

Great offer from bet365. Basically get half the money back on losing grand national bets. This means i can double my bets :lol:

jameswhufc
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Postby jameswhufc » Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:47 pm

Paddy Power just messaged me to say i can have 7 places on the National :unlucky:

Ilovethiscity
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Postby Ilovethiscity » Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:30 pm

Just wanted to say a huge thank you to you all.. Thoroughly enjoying reading everyones thoughts and comments here. Micko's blog was nothing short of fascinating and I also wanted to say thanks to user Welshpip for putting his list up as I had (nearly) the same :D and I am fairly new to the races! So everyone as mentioned I am NEW so just sharing with you my list.. I've gone EW on all and I am following a mixture of my heart, head and stuff I learned here.

Night in Milan (biggest backed and now topped up after reading here/having an increasingly good feeling)
Soll
Alvarado
Oscar Time (hey, fairytales do happen!)
Mon Parrain

Again just a huge thank you to all, so glad I found it here :win:

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Postby Shrews » Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:54 pm

My revised top 6 rated now jockey bookings have been confirmed:

1. Pineau De Re
2. Shutthefrontdoor
3. Balthazar King
4. Mon Parrain
5. Alvarado
6. Chance Du Roy

But starting to narrow them down further. I'm booting PDR based on records of previous winners

Pineau De Re – up 8lb (143-151)- ????
Aurora’s Encore – did not race
Neptune Collonges – did not race
Ballabriggs – up 10lb (150-160) – finished 6th
Don’t Push It – up 7lb (153-160) – finished 3rd
Mon Mome – up 7lb (148-155) – Fell
Comply Or Die – up 14lb (139-153) – finished 2nd
Silver Birch – up 10lb (138-148) – Fell
Numbersixvalverde – up 11lb (138-149)- finished 6th
Hedgehunter – up 12lb (144-156) – finished 2nd
Amberleigh House – up 7lb (139-1146) – finished 10th
Monty’s Pass – up 14lb (139-153) – finished 4th
Bindaree – up 7lb (136-143) – finished 6th
Red Marauder – did not race
Papillon – up 9lb (139-148) – finished 4th
Bobbyjo – up 5lb (142-147) – finished 11th
Earth Summit – up 9lb (147-156) – finished 8th
Lord Gyllene – did not race
Rough Quest – up 8lb (152-160) – pulled up
Royal Athlete – did not race
Miinnehoma – up 14lb (153-167) – pulled up


Also booted is McCoy's, I just can't be having it at that price and Balthazar King is up 3lb for his 2nd last year where he was beaten 5l and may find one too good once again. That said, and although 10/1 is again very short, he's still in my calculations especially as he looks good for a place and his price is likely to drift on the day as the money comes for McCoy.

Mon Parrain looks too high in the weights IMO for what he's achieved but I've not ruled him out yet.

Chance Du Roy was beaten 19l last time and I don't think there was any excuses. It's probably too much to make up but he might sneak a place.

Alvarado has come into my calculations with the jockey booking, but again there was no hard luck stories last year and I can't see there's going to be enough improvement to win.


Still mulling over it, but there's only so much thinking you can do before the whole thing starts to p*ss you off :D

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Postby The Executioner » Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:36 am

I can see First Lieutenant shortening in today ahead of tomorrow's race , a classy chaser in the past that has the ability to run well , Nina rides the course very well having completed in three of four attempts in the National. Had a confidence boosting easy win in the Foxhunters Chase yesterday aboard On The Fringe , and First Liuetenant will also carry the support of Irish backers and those hoping for her to be the first lady to win the race. Should not be dismissed.

slimey
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Postby slimey » Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:08 pm

whats the point of having reserves??

39 runners , 4 resrves!

yes, i fancied the first reserve.. rant over.

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Postby nors » Fri Apr 10, 2015 4:30 pm

Dont forget to add your Grand National tips, will be interesting to see which horse is the most popular come 4.15 tomorrow.

http://www.olbg.com/4%253A15%2BAintree.tips

Gman84
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Postby Gman84 » Fri Apr 10, 2015 4:57 pm

Hope Robbie McNamara is ok after what appears to be a nasty fall at Wexford today but for Lord Windermere that means another jockey change! Wayne Hutchinson has to pass the quack as well to ride Godsmejudge.

Katie Walsh for Lord Windermere maybe?

Shrews
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Postby Shrews » Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:07 pm

I've screwed my previous advice into a ball and lobbed it into a huge skip. I've looked at it again and old Oscar Time keeps looking me in the eye, nodding his head and whispering 'The National Story this year is that a 14yo wins it'


16:15 4:15 Aintree 100 EW NAP Oscar Time (Daily Racing) 40/1 BetVictor

"Now I know he's 14 and that goes against a major 'age' trend, but he's still in bloody good form for an old 'un. 2nd to Ballabriggs on Good off 145, 4th to Aurora's Encore on Gd/Sft off 145, off 142 today. Sam-Whaley Cohen goes well over these fences (most successful jockey ever I heard on 5live earlier, although he's never won The National - yet). 11lb well in with Saint Are on their run in the Becher Chase in December. That age is bound to keep his price buoyant, but he's got a decent e/w chance on a course he likes, over fences he likes, on ground he likes, with a jockey who is ultra-successful over the fences (apparently)and on a decent mark too for the form he's in. "

I've also taken a liking for Al Co and he's my 2nd best. Likes good going, has a winnable weight, useful mark, jumps well, and if anything is going to put Oscar Time into a well deserved retirement it's going to be him

1. Oscar Time
2. Al Co
3. Pineau De Re
4. Balthazar King
5. Chance Du Roy

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