Grand National 2014- Trends

deswalker
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 15601
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon

Postby deswalker » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:19 pm

That is where is starts to get difficult though doesn't it?

If Triolo D'Alene won this year, 7yo's would still have a terrible record in the race. The fact that one overturns the stat is not sufficient for the stat to be redundant... you know that everyone would say it was because the fences have been changed slightly though...

Confirmation bias and recency effect. These are our biggest enemies. :win:
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

drogerson
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3058
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:00 am
Location: Wigan, England.
Contact:

Postby drogerson » Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:33 pm

There's only one consistent trend at the moment and that's about half of the field won't finish. That has to be factored in when betting and even if you think they're good jumpers there's a serious chance of being hampered and brought down.

I can't back anything like the prices the favourites are at the moment and with a race like this I'd urge everyone and anyone not to put all your cash on one horse.

Wallsendlad
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1552
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Usually last in any competitions

Postby Wallsendlad » Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:22 am

Whether this is a trend or not, I apologise for it being in the wrong heading.

Surely it is also of interest to highlight the jockeys who have the better success rate of negotiating the fences and completing the circuit.
2 who stand out are Paul Moloney (Not a jockey on everyones lips) but he has finished in the first 5 in the last 5 nationals and was 6th the year before that. A fabulous record which has surely been achieved with as much nous as luck.

He is currently scheduled to ride ONE IN A MILAN, but I have read somewhere the owners of ALVARADO are after his services also.



Barry Geraghty of the more successful riders has an excellent record too.
As well as being successful on Montys Pass 11 years ago, he has also achieved a 3rd place and 3 x 4th as well as a 6th (for all you Bet Vic punters :win: :D)
He is on TRIOLO D'ALENE this year

Apologies if there are any inaccuracies.

andystaff
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:00 am
Location: Nottinghamshire

Postby andystaff » Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:23 am

Too true Wallsendlad, good point.

Same goes for the trainer Evan Williams, placed in the last 5 nationals.

2013 Cappa Bleu 2nd
2012 Cappa Bleu 4th
2011 State Of Play 4th
2010 State Of Play 3rd
2009 State Of Play 4th.

Wallsendlad
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1552
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Usually last in any competitions

Postby Wallsendlad » Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:44 am

Too true Wallsendlad, good point.

Same goes for the trainer Evan Williams, placed in the last 5 nationals.

2013 Cappa Bleu 2nd
2012 Cappa Bleu 4th
2011 State Of Play 4th
2010 State Of Play 3rd
2009 State Of Play 4th.
Yes of course. I never thought.

andystaff
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:00 am
Location: Nottinghamshire

Postby andystaff » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:44 pm

If you applied all the trends on first page, you would be left with these.

Balthazar King
Burton Port
Chance Du Roy
Lion Na Bearnai
Monbeg Dude
Night In Milan
Raz De Maree
Teaforthree
Mountainous

Think that's right! only done first 44 runners.
Last edited by andystaff on Sat Apr 05, 2014 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

UnderdogsLover
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6481
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Somewhere nice and warm.

Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:33 pm

:win: First well done andy, doing the trends.and did up
to 44 runners great read..

I quite like Chance Du Roy, done at 33/1 nice Each Way.
As we know Roy stays, think he like soft ground to!!
also like Lion Na Bearnai i know he stays the trip to..

Had small Each Way on The Rainbow Hunter, have to have something
with weather in.
Done Big Shu, had shout for place to..
Waiting on Night In Milan, maybe this year, be year too early for him!
!

Think that s my horses nearly sorted now.. :hope:

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2609
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Postby The Market Man » Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:42 pm

Are there any stats available for the jockeys over these fences, not just at Aintree ?

Shrews
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1765
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Postby Shrews » Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:09 pm

Quito De La Roque 40/1+ -
4 of the last 5 have been aged 10 or 11
4 of the last 5 have carried 11st to 11st 6lb

No Irish trained winners in the last 5 though ?

He's French bred and there's a trend that says that only 2 French breds have won in the last 100 years (or something like that). However those 2 have come very recently (2009 and 2012) and suggests that as the race has been made 'easier' in recent times then the most recent trends may be best.

Perhaps as it is an easier race nowadays trainers are targeting the race for older horses who have not quite reached the very top of their game or on their way down from the top ? They perhaps now see it as winnable and a chance of one last big payday.

I am of course suggesting 'targeting' the race rather than anything that has won to date (Neptunes Collenges aside). For example last year there was Imperial Commander (Gold Cup winner in 2010), this season it's Long Run. To me it just seems a better class of animal is contesting the race these days, and with Neptune Collonges winning in 2012 (previously a Gold Cup 3rd and 4th) this may have further woken trainers up to the fact that it's a good prize that is perhaps winnable and less risky than it was.

That may well mean that trends over the last 5 years hold sway rather than trends such as the French bred one which goes back a 100 years or so. But two winners in the last 5 is significant, as opposed to zero in the previous 100 before that.

My thoughts are that recent trends are best, better class horses are contesting the race (hence 4/5 winners carrying 11st or more)and older horses hold sway (10 and 11 year olds winning 4/4, whereas the previous 4 they were 2/4 (both 10yo), 2/4 from the next 4, 2/4 from the next. It used to be common knowledge that the average age of the winner was 9 but that seems to have increased over the last 5 years (and definitely over the last 4)

4 of the last 5 have been aged 10 or 11
4 of the last 5 have carried 11st to 11st 6lb

Those two recent trends point to only one horse and it may be a mistake for anyone to dismiss the horse based on a old French bred trend which actually in recent years hasn't been too shabby at all.

French bred: 2 winners in the last 5, from 7,6,8,11,8 runners (2 from 40)

IRE: 3 winners in the last 5, from 27,26,28,21,18 (3 from 120)

GB: 0 winners in the last 5, from 4,5,7,11,10 (0 from 37)

Those figures aren't to prove that French breds are best nowadays, but just to show they shouldn't be discounted and it may now be best to stick to the most recent trends

bobhorse
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:00 pm

Postby bobhorse » Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:07 am

My own view about some of the trends and reasoning for there prominence

FR Bred i think the reasoning against the FR bred horses can be explained by the fact that they seem to mature much earlier over jumps and young horses aren't allowed to run in the race so when these animals at at their peak they are bared from entering so by the time they are eligible to run in this they have either too many miles on the clock or are spent forces

7Y old Stat due to the way NH horses are brought along into this game they either start at 4 or 5 over hurdles for a year then they are just 2nd season chasers by the time they are 7 y old or they come the bumper route at 5 or 6 and again they are second season chasers who have never really tackled a big field or fences like these and in the end its all too much for them

Myself i only look at horses 9y - 11y old with solid staying form preferably have taken in a national( Irish Welsh Scottish Midlands) the previous year or two that gives me a reasonable short list i avoided horses with head gear on because its on for a reason and you need a natural jumper around here or at least you did prior to all the changes

Weight as the better class of horse has been taken part in the race it has created a sub level of decent animals who in previous years would have carried 11st 10lbs but are getting in now with 11st 6 - 11st and it really favours this type of horse if and its a big if they meet the national types having raced in one previous or the better G1 chases there is still the lightweights angle for top handicappers who stay all day and have shown that in a previous national or Eider chase and is where trends and form should be used to best ability i look at the race with trends and with the previous national form and end up with two lists duplicates are horses that should be looked at closely but all horse on the list need to be looked at in depth put like everything else you pays your money you makes your choice

Good luck to all

andystaff
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:00 am
Location: Nottinghamshire

Postby andystaff » Sat Apr 05, 2014 3:57 pm

Whether this is a trend or not, I apologise for it being in the wrong heading.

Surely it is also of interest to highlight the jockeys who have the better success rate of negotiating the fences and completing the circuit.
2 who stand out are Paul Moloney (Not a jockey on everyones lips) but he has finished in the first 5 in the last 5 nationals and was 6th the year before that. A fabulous record which has surely been achieved with as much nous as luck.

He is currently scheduled to ride ONE IN A MILAN, but I have read somewhere the owners of ALVARADO are after his services also.





Barry Geraghty of the more successful riders has an excellent record too.
As well as being successful on Montys Pass 11 years ago, he has also achieved a 3rd place and 3 x 4th as well as a 6th (for AllYouBet Vic punters :win: :D)
He is on TRIOLO D'ALENE this year

Apologies if there are any inaccuracies.

Wallsendlad

Hope you had a few quid on the Paul Maloney mount, well done to you on your post pointing this stat out.

andystaff
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 712
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:00 am
Location: Nottinghamshire

Postby andystaff » Sat Apr 05, 2014 9:43 pm

Trends/stats ?

Financially it was my worst national for a few years, but the entertainment of trying to solve the puzzle that is the Grand National is still as bigger thrill has the exciting spectacle it’s self. Congratulations to all those that chose the winner, who I never considered. Even though he met all but one of the 10-year trends/stats, only failing on the winning a chase worth at least £29k. You can say he had form going into the national after his run behind Fingal Bay at Cheltenham, but so did The Package for example, who’s form was franked by Holywell & Ma Filleule. So overall my 5 horses finished 4th, 6th, 8th, PU & RR. Of the horses that met all the trends/stats Balthazar King finished 2nd and surprised me after last year’s performance & having a hard race at Cheltenham, I dismissed. Chance du Roy 6th, Monbeg Dude 7th, Raz De Maree 8th & the others did not finish. So I think that after using a lot of trends to get down to a short list, including horses that met all the trends but had no kind form for a long time was a mistake and that recent form is just as important.


At least they will have no ammunition to knock the national after all returned save & sound from the greatest show on earth.
And Phil Smith’s best efforts to make the unpredictable Grand National, predictable have failed…long live a big price winner!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users