Grand National 2014- Trends

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:12 pm

NUMBERSIXVALVERDE 2006

Age 10 Weight 10-8 OR 138 Form 8, 4, BD, 4, 4, 3.

Chase wins – 3

Mar 2008 Fai 29f Sft £100k OR 126.
Jan 2005 Gow 24f Hvy £34k OR 117.
Dec 2004 Nav 24f £13k OR 106.

Best placed effort (distance) – 29f

Big field performance – 1/26

Career falls – 0

Runs that season – Mar 12 3/14 Hurdle.
Feb 5 4/ 8 Hurdle.
Jan 15 4/12 11-0 OR 135.
Dec 27 BD 11-8 OR 135.
Dec 4 4/23 11/9 OR 116.
Nov 13 8/12 Hurdle.

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:13 pm

HEDGEHUNTER 2005

Age9 Weight 11-1 OR 144 Form 9, 2, 4, 0, 6, 1.

Chase wins – 3

Feb 2005 Fai 25f Sft £16k OR 142
Jan 2004 Gow 24f Sft £34k OR 129
Feb 2003 Pun 28f Hvy £13k OR 115

Best placed effort (distance) – 30f

Big field performance – 1/14 4/21

Career falls – 1

Runs that season – Feb 19 1/16 11-5 OR 142
Jan 30 6/10 Hurdle
Dec 27 10/19 Hurdle
Dec 11 4/17 Hurdle
Dec 2 2/12 Hurdle
Nov 18 9/13 Hurdle

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Postby andystaff » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:13 pm

AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 2004

Age 12 Weight 10-10 OR 139 Form 3, 4, 2, PU, 5.

Chase wins – 5

Apr 2002 Ban 25f gd Class 3 £7k OR 125
Nov 2001 Ain 27f sft Class 2 £29k OR 121
May 2000 Pun 20f gd £11k OR 131
Feb 2000 Thu 20f hvy £13k OR 128
Oct 1998 Gow 17f sft £2k.

Best placed effort (distance) – 36f

Big field performance – 1/15 3/40

Career falls – 1

Runs that season – Mar 6 5/8 11-6 OR 139
Feb 14 PU Hurdle
Nov 23 2/15 11-5 OR 133
Nov 1 4/5 11-10 OR 134
Oct 23 3/8 Hurdle.

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Postby Billy121only » Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:49 am

Great Stuff Andystaff.

On the subject on stats, I have a confession to make! Not so many years ago, I was a huge fan of stats and trends as I believed it helped cross-off half the field or more before looking at the form which saved hours.

It was the Grand National that fuelled this view. A daily newspaper years ago printed the most amazing 20-year stats and it was easy to see that many of the field couldn't win armed with this information.

The lesson starts here though; On the Friday before in 1992, I was safely looking only at horses carrying below 11st as none of the last 15-winners had broken this ceiling. Would I have picked HEDGEHUNTER off 11st 1lb had I looked at the horse? Who knows but I felt pretty daft once the shock of the broken trend had worn off.

A couple of years passed with trends being met then shock as COMPLY OR DIE won wearing headgear. Can you imagine? All the notes in the press that this hadn't been done for years etc.

The following renewal saw a French-bred horse win in MON MOME (who had also had too many prep-runs). My stats cut out from the daily newspaper had been destroyed and I was financially broken in terms of the race.

Any lingering hopes were dashed when DON'T PUSH IT carried 11st 6lb to victory (not done) and Paul Nicholls trained the winner with NEPTUNE COLLOGNES.

The above illustrates that I learned things the hard way, as is usually the case in life. My view now is that trends are massively over-played in the media and lead the misguided down the wrong path. For 15-years, it was no horse carried more than 10st 13. After Hedgehunter it was no horse...11st 1. Now we are saying 11st 6.

Truth is, with only two 7-y-o's and no 13-y-o's, the age stat is unlikely to fall. Three horses are set to carry more than 11st 6 as things stand and at least a couple have reasonable claims but the likliehood is that trend will stand, not because it is impossible to carry the weight but because the overwhelming % of the market covers horses carrying less weight.

As the runners circle down at the start on the day, ask yourself if you should have considered each horse on its merit and certainly question whether what happened 10-years ago is realy having an impact on the 2014 race as things unfold before your eyes.
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Postby deswalker » Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:54 am

True Billy. But I think this illustrates how badly applied stats and trends are misleading, rather than debunking the whole idea.

Mon Mome was french bred, but hit a lot of key trends for the race in terms of stamina and big field experience. He was on my final shortlist of 7, but (as an inexperienced whippersnapper in those days) I left him unbacked and took my other live outsider... Cerium (5th).

:wink:

Are you going to be doing a trendbuster blog post for The National this year?

If so, I think it will be interesting to see how the Novices and less experienced horses run this year (traditionally find things difficult); Rocky Creek, Triolo D'Alene, Same Difference, Hawkes Point and Godsmejudge all fall in to the category of "ones I have marked down as possible for future Nationals" but will race this year...

:?
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Postby andystaff » Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:12 pm

Billy121only, cheers mate.

I think the mistakes you talk about are something most people can relate to, including myself.

I would use every stat/trend known to man/woman from A P McCoy to Paul Nicholls, from Female jockeys to grey’s. Not even considering horses like Neptune Collonges who clearly had the class, stamina & jumping ability, but because he was 11-6, never even considered him.

Now I only use certain ones, but they must have proven stamina, class & jumping ability for starters. I think certain trends/stats can be very useful, if they have good reasoning behind them.

I just put the trends/stats up to help anyone who is interested in them to try and help them to get down to some kind of shortlist. And to collate as much information, all in one place.

Way behind this year with my studying, not even got a short list yet!
:thanks:

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Postby Billy121only » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:00 pm

@Andystaff - Yes, all information is useful and you have presented it well. I hope you find the winner!

@Des - No, I don't think I will do another 'TrendBuster' type blog as I don't think we have any notable trends for me to Lay into!

Needless to say, 7-y-o's & 13-y-o's make up a very small % of the overall book across the years and if there are 2 winning favourites in 10-years, that would be a cracking result for favourite backers....

Interesting you mention SAME DIFFERENCE. I have half a thought that he could go well.
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Postby deswalker » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:19 pm

Well Triolo D'Alene is a 7yo and a 2nd season chaser, as well as being trained by Henderson (0 from 32 record in the race, or something equally staggering), so surely he would have to count as a BIG trend buster?

:P
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Postby Billy121only » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:56 pm

Agreed, go TrendBuster! Had a little chat with Nicky yesterday, he feels the run in the Gold Cup will have bought him on but I think it is a huge ask. If Shakalakaboomboom gets in which I think he will, he would have a squeak.

Given how much the race has changed, even without my cynicism the stats and trends can be expected to shift. I am not quite sure I agree with my colleague's assertion it is a 4 1/2 mile handicap hurdle nowadays (!) but the classier top weights can be expected to do better overall than they once did.

What would be interesting is where the winner came from at certain points in the race. I recall more than one year looking down the straight as the BBC camera pointed that way and after 3 or 4 fences, half the field are tailed-off!
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Postby deswalker » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:30 pm

Its been one year, I find it amazing how much everyone thinks its changed... we have very little evidence. And, in fact, the result from last year didn't support the assertion that much has changed at all in terms of the type that wins or runs well.

17 finished last year, 15 the year before, 19 in 2011.

:?
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Postby andystaff » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:07 pm

AGE IS JUST A NUMBER…OR IS IT?


Too inexperienced or over the hill!

The last 7yr old to win was Bogskar in 1940 and the last 13yr old was Sergeant Murphy in 1923.

Is it because that 7 or younger are inexperienced? And 13 or older are too old & past it for this test?


2013
1st –11yrs 2nd – 11yrs 3rd –9yrs 4th –12yrs.

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners-1
Saint Are –7yrs finished 9th


2012
1st –11 2nd –9 3rd –9 4th –10

No of 7yr olds or under & 13 or over runners-5
Hello Bud – 14, finished 7th.
Tharawaat – 7, finished 8th.
Black Apalachi – 13, Fell.
Organisedconfusion – 7, UR.
Viking Blond – 7, Fell.


2011
1st –10 2nd –10 3rd –11 4th –11

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners –3
Hello Bud – 13, PU.
Quolibet – 7, UR.
Quinz – 7, PU.


2010


1st –10 2nd –11 3rd – 10 4th –8

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners – 3
Tricky Trickster – 7, finished 9th.
Piraya – 7, finished 13th.
Palypso De Creek – 7, Fell.


2009

1st –9 2nd –10 3rd –9 4th –9

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners – 3
Big Fella Thanks – 7, finished 6th.
Can’t Buy Time – 7, Fell.
Eurotrek – 13, PU.


2008

1st –9 2nd –9 3rd –8 4th –9

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners – 7
Nadover – 7, finished 7th.
Milan Deux Mille – 6, finished 15th.
Turko – 6, Fell.
Madison Du Berlais – 7, Fell.
Iron Man – 7, UR.
No Full – 7, Fell.
Bob Hall – 7, PU.


2007

1st –10 2nd –8 3rd –8 4th –11

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners – 0



2006

1st –10 2nd –10 3rd –11 4th –9

No of 7yr olds or under & 13 or over runners –6
Native Upmanship – 13, REF.
Whispered Secret – 7, UR.
Rince Ri – 13, REF.
First Gold – 13, UR.
Le Duc – 7, UR.
Amberleigh House – 14, PU.


2005

1st –9 2nd –8 3rd –10 4th –11

No of 7 or under & 13 or Over Runners – 3
Amberleigh House – 13, finished 10th.
L ‘Aventure – 6, finished 15th.
Double Honour – 7, UR.


2004

1st –12 2nd –9 3rd –8 4th –11

No of 7 or under & 13 or over runners –5
Shardam –7, UR.
Royal Atalza – 7, PU.
Montreal – 7, Fell.
Jurancon II – 7, Fell.
Kelami – 6, BD.


Conclusion:
Only 36 runners in that age bracket have run in the last 10 years.
10 runners in the age bracket have finished the race.
17 runners have fallen or UR in that age bracket in last 10 years.


So not only has no 7 or under & 13 or over won for a long time, none have placed in the last 10 years.

Make of it what you will!
:shock:

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Postby Billy121only » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:59 pm

Good stuff again Andy. Pondering things, I have decided my original 'formula' is lacking a third part, so

Stats or Trends vs Expected Probability = x

x vs Popular Opinion = y

What I am getting at is that for example, 7-y-o's may be considered too weak or inexperienced for the National and that is a valid view to take.

There would come a point though where this 'populist' opinion sways the odds and it at some point it becomes sensible to take the opposing view. Perhaps the Grand National is a bad race to use an example as there will be an awfully big % of 'mug' money and folk want the winner not the value.

In general terms though, there is a very fine balance between a meaningful stat that is a positive and one which is actually a negative. As an example, AP McCoy in the saddle over the jumps is almost universally treated as a positive 'trend'. However, this is obvious so it is not the punters' friend. The bookies can see as well as you and me so the sharp punter is seeing less accomplished jockeys that are better than the public perception.

Just my musings and I don't disagree with the aged 7 and 13 stats at all, that is actually a fair example of not a trend but a logical expectation based on the physical properties of the racehorse.

One thing is for certain, if we do get a 7-y-o winner this year, next year we will be talking about 6-y-o's and 13-y-o's having a poor record!
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