Given Phil Smith is wanting to get these top class horses running in the National he is sure to give Long Run a chance. Half of the field might run out of the handicap. Judging by this years result then maybe you need a previous "National" winner i.e. one proven to stay 4m+. However, Long Run is only 9 and he could take to this course (I'd be firmly of the belief he would) and then it is just a case of luck and staying the trip.
The thing is if he does get to the race he won't be 33-1. He was backed again in the GC to 7-2 and my feeling is that if he did get to the National he is sure to start under 5-1 possibly even shorter. So there is a lot of play in his price, if they make the decision to send him to the race he'll instantly be 10-1 or under months out.
Oscar Time will be 13 next year so pretty much has no chance and clearly cannot win the race.
It's £58K to come third in the GC or £29K to come fourth but it'll be worth £550K to win the National next year, £200+ to come second, £100K+ to come third and £50K+ to come fourth. So from a prize money perspective bit of a no brainer and they gave it consideration this year. This likely to be his best chance of winning it given his age and I would have thought the owner and particularly his son would love to have a go at this race with such a top class animal.
It will be somewhat interesting to see how he runs in his next few races - looking at a handicap mark! - probably not but it wouldn't put you off if he ran poorly next few races

It might look come the day as good as the 10-1 I managed to get on Frankel last year during the "injury scare" before the Lockinge. Might also be money wasted given he might not run but a punt worth having a go at with the obvious view of trading out.