Grand National 2014

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Grand National 2014

Postby budgie27 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 7:50 pm

Lol I am a bit previous here but I couldn't resist the 33-1 for Long Run and had to have a reasonable bet on that. I was actually quite impressed with his jumping watching from the ground - I actually thought he was the best jumper in the GC and was possibly outspeeded by two slightly younger horses having had to make his own running. He is going to have an entry in the GN and the GC but if Bob's Worth and Sir Des Champs both get to the Gold Cup, gallant as it might be for him to get placed in the GC again not much real point in running him there. If he were to run in the GN presumably his OR would still be around 170 meaning that if the handicap is typically compressed he would get in at least 10lbs well in if we judge it on Tidal Bays rating.

Given Phil Smith is wanting to get these top class horses running in the National he is sure to give Long Run a chance. Half of the field might run out of the handicap. Judging by this years result then maybe you need a previous "National" winner i.e. one proven to stay 4m+. However, Long Run is only 9 and he could take to this course (I'd be firmly of the belief he would) and then it is just a case of luck and staying the trip.

The thing is if he does get to the race he won't be 33-1. He was backed again in the GC to 7-2 and my feeling is that if he did get to the National he is sure to start under 5-1 possibly even shorter. So there is a lot of play in his price, if they make the decision to send him to the race he'll instantly be 10-1 or under months out.

Oscar Time will be 13 next year so pretty much has no chance and clearly cannot win the race.

It's £58K to come third in the GC or £29K to come fourth but it'll be worth £550K to win the National next year, £200+ to come second, £100K+ to come third and £50K+ to come fourth. So from a prize money perspective bit of a no brainer and they gave it consideration this year. This likely to be his best chance of winning it given his age and I would have thought the owner and particularly his son would love to have a go at this race with such a top class animal.

It will be somewhat interesting to see how he runs in his next few races - looking at a handicap mark! - probably not but it wouldn't put you off if he ran poorly next few races :P

It might look come the day as good as the 10-1 I managed to get on Frankel last year during the "injury scare" before the Lockinge. Might also be money wasted given he might not run but a punt worth having a go at with the obvious view of trading out.

UnderdogsLover
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6412
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Somewhere nice and warm.

Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:50 pm

Yes lol 2014 National..

I to liked Long Run for National, was hoing he would run this year..
Too earlly for me,at this stage,we not had our classic s yet.

Across The Bay am keeping eye on for next year. :yes:

Sprng nearly here at Last. :)

deswalker
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 15601
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon

Postby deswalker » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:15 pm

Given that I spend approximately 2 months from February onwards thinking about the National on a pretty much daily basis, its no surprise that I have already had a couple of initial thoughts on 2014 is it?

Although clearly there is no way I would consider a bet on either of these at this stage, even if I could!

Soll ran a great race into 7th behind Auroras despite a couple of mistakes. This horse was having only his 7th chase start and was 2lbs out of the handicap in a race which is considered now to favour the higher weights.

He has to be watched over the coming year, as its likely that he will need to rise a few lbs to get in next year, but I think it was incredibly promising.

If Soll ran a great race, Saint Are ran a spectacular one to finish 9th as a 7 year old. He's only won twice in the UK and both times were at Aintree and I do wonder what connections will do with him now.

The likelihood is that if he is openly campaigned he will be a bit exposed by the time he gets to the race next year to fit a traditional National profile, but Auroras Encore was having his 24th chase start so maybe that isn't so relevant.

:win:
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7613
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Postby Micko70 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:43 pm

Budgie

Good luck with your Long Run bet @ 33/1 for the 2014 National.

Personally i cannot see Long Run running in the National in 2014, 2015 or even 2016 but Racing is all about opinions.

You deserve him to run after deciding to punt on him this early

Kincsem
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 917
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:00 pm

Postby Kincsem » Fri Apr 19, 2013 1:02 am

I don't think long run will run in national.He is far too good to be sacrificed for the national and will only be 9 next year.
I still can't believe nigel ran imperial commander in the national this year.
:shock:

I agree with des,Soll is the one to follow in staying races next season.He is still young and has been thrown in some big staying handicap races and has performed with credit.

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Postby budgie27 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 6:53 pm

Well my GN form not too bad winner of Scootish GN, no fallers first fence (5-1 best price) and Rare Bob at 25-1 EW 6 places so though its a bit suicidal bet as poss non runner feeling ok re Long Run he only needs to be entered up to draw a profit or a free bet!

DAVIDADAN
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 5565
Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 11:00 pm
Contact:

Postby DAVIDADAN » Sat Apr 20, 2013 8:53 pm

Long way off,interesting thoughts though.I felt the same right after Silver Birch,s run in the Welsh National,took 150/1 which in hindsight was worthwhile after he won 33/1

@ Budgie Courtesy of Sky Sports

http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/ ... d-National

Current betting on Oddschecker

http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-nation ... dds/winner

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Postby budgie27 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:28 pm

Godsmejudge has to be another one of interest at 33-1 as Alan King says he'll be aimed at the GN now and I'll have a few quid on him now as well as he looks like the type to improve and get better the further he steps up in trip and there we go my GN bets done for 2013 :P :)

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Postby budgie27 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:34 pm

Quote from after the race at Punchestown today:
Long Run's owner, Robert Waley-Cohen, felt it was worth the journey. He said: "He was beaten by a better horse on the day and that's the second time he's beaten us, but I think that's the best race he's run for a long time. It might have been the change of scenery, but he showed a lot of determination. We'll prepare for the King George again and make a plan for the second half of the season. He won't run in France. He is certainly likely to get an entry in the Grand National."
Still 33-1 with Coral and 35-1 with Betfair - got to be worth a couple of quid?

deswalker
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 15601
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon

Postby deswalker » Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:18 pm

I'll state it now, to avoid confusion later. Long Run would be saddled with approaching top weight in a National and would definitely be one to oppose for me. Too exposed, French bred (yes its still a negative for me, although not as big as it was) and an iffy jumper.

Like Imperial Commander this year, I'd even go so far as to say; no chance whatsoever.

:?
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Postby budgie27 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:22 pm

AH but he'll be 9 not 12 and not so much about him winning more about what price might he be des that's the thing :wink:

The last two runs his jumping has been fine (like I said the best jumper in this years GC for me - he was pretty spectacular actually), he'll carry top weight but relative to his opponents he will likely have a good mark. Comparing him to IC is a mistake he's much more straight forward but at 33-1 as I said before if he gets to the race you get the option to trade out or take a free bet when he will for sure be under 10-1 giving a 23 point play minimum. When he wins or runs well in the King George and then they say we'll go for the GN rather than the GC (where seems unlikely they can beat a fit BW plus others).

It's all about taking some value in this market not about whether he can win or not. In my opinion the only reason he wouldn't win is bad luck or not staying but that isn't what we are betting on - we are betting that his price will contract from 33-1, unless he doesn't run again that seems a given does it not?

budgie27
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3240
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:00 am

Postby budgie27 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:27 pm

no chance whatsoever
- I'll say that is a bold statement based on some logic seemingly that if IC couldn't win then this one can't - I think we both said if IC wins the GN we would do something crazy and that was proved right. Given that LR is 33-1 and your definitive statement what will you do if he wins :lol:

LR gets past the KG and they are still talking GN he will be 20-1, misses the GC in favour of the GN 10-1, declared for the race 5-1, on race day 7-2. You get to choose when you get out unless he gets injured but that can happen to a horse on the day.

He would have an outstanding chance of winning given my previous points and accepting he might not stay but he would be one level minimum of class away from what will run in the race that staying the trip might only be relative i.e. he might just be too classy for the real stayers and we don't know he stays the distance - we do know he stays 3m 2f round Chelts on soft ground so not a stretch to think he can stay 4ms the extra 3f+ will be an unknown for sure. Do you think he could give 10lbs to Back in Focus, Auroras Encore et al and prove a notch above - my opinion yes but if he doesn't stay then meaningless but I'm not backing him to win only to have a reasonable chance to turn up which given connections thought about it last year and the comments from RWC above must mean they are seriously considering it, with a jockey who has an exemplarary record I think it would fulfil there dreams to win this race with probably the best (classiest) horse that has ever contested the race. He carries 11-10 with no problems in G1 races why should he not be capable to do it in a G3 handicap? The jumping issues a thing of the past for me, the new fences likely to suit him perfectly and a horse who has never really looked like falling despite looking clumsy at times but so does Sprinter Sacre.

Personally if he runs he has a good chance of winning and sure that the prize money has to sway them to come here than picking up place money elsewhere.

He will be nailed on fav if he runs, I have no doubt about that. A horse who has proven himself over and over again that he is a top grade G1 horse, a Gold Cup winner, a dual KG winner and a twice placed GC horse not mention his other top notch wins (4 other G1 race wins). A battler who gives his all, sorry he is one of my fav racehorse of all time as he never really lets you down, just like all of us can't be at his best all of the time, this new task could be the making of him and he could win back to back nationals if Phil Smith wants to get him in the race. His form overall ties him in very closely to Kauto Star - what price he at 9 years of age if they considered putting him in this race?

Tidal Bay was rated what was it 6lbs better than Seabass - well LR is currently rated 1lb lower than TB so might he get 7lbs of Seabass ir similar horses? On a relative mark that would put him in this race at about 161, well probably the last time he ran to that was in the Paddy Power over an inadequate 2m4+ back in Nov 2010. Clearly still capable of running to 170+ as evidenced just this week at Punchestown, he's not like IC who had to run off 158 when his form said at best he was a 154 rated horse. This probably a horse who can still run 170+ and could even get to 174 still then if he gets in off a relative mark of 162 then he will really be at least 8lbs well in and presumably the best horse since Red Rum or Crisp ran in the race.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users