Scottish Grand National 2013

nors
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Scottish Grand National 2013

Postby nors » Mon Apr 15, 2013 2:50 pm

I have set up this new 2013 Scottish National Thread, to save any confusion. The 2012 thread is an interesting read though and good for stats. Please work together and discuss to find the best bets.


Posted By kyle21b

9 of the last 10 winners have carried 10-9 or less so I'm going to straight away rule out the top half of the field. The second big trend, in my opinion, is that they ran well last time out (all in top 6 and 8 of 10 in top 3).

This leaves me with...

White Star Line (25/1)
Fill The Power (33/1)
Neptune Equester (16/1)
Monsieur Cadou (18/1)
Rebeccas Choice (28/1)
Beneficial Reform (40/1)
Lively Baron (33/1)
King Fontaine. (16/1)


Monsieur Cadou has only ever fallen once over fences, although he has been run in weak races. May be interested at the price.

Rebeccas Choice ran really well in the Midlands National but is carrying slightly more weight here (albeit over a shorter trip and probably better ground).

King Fontaine is off the second lowest weight in the field, followed MC home last time out off 2 pound heavier. Maybe the price is a little short.


Think I'm probably siding with Rebeccas Choice after all of that!
Last edited by nors on Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:34 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Kincsem » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:59 pm

I don't know if rebbecca's choice will get in but if he does then i agree with kyle.He is my first choice in this race too and hope he does get in.
He needs rain and the weather forecast is looking good.
I will wait until the final declaration before betting.

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Postby kyle21b » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:25 pm

Yeah, was thinking along a similar line. Hope some of these lower weights do get in though!
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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:33 pm

Posted By kyle21b

9 of the last 10 winners have carried 10-9 or less
Adding the previous 10 years, it actually reads as 13 of the last 20 carried 10-09 or less

And another trend shows that 12 of the last 20 winners had their last run at either Aintree, Cheltenham, Doncaster or Uttoxeter (3 each)

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Postby davidg3907 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 10:28 am

Courtesy of OLBG , I was fortunate enough to be at Warwick on a bloody cold and miserable day in February ( as far as the weather was concerned ) for a thoroughly enjoyable high class day's racing.

I made my sole venture on the next time out / alerts thread with horses from that meeting.

One was Godsmejudge who ran a fine race in defeat at the Festival behind the ' good thing ' Back In Focus on ground that was unsuitably fast.

I said that he was the type to go well on the National circuit - but did not expect it to happen as soon as this for a relatively unexposed 7yo.

He is the type to stay forever and any further Scottish precipitation would help his cause. Despite having to carry 11-3 I have no choice but to stick with my prediction . Whether we have to wait till next season for him to fully blossom , only time will tell.
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Postby kyle21b » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:34 pm

I worry whether GODSMEJUDGE can reverse its previous form with RIGADIN DE BEUCHENE. Off the top of my head, I thought RdB finished that race far stronger than Godsmejudge, not surprising when he was giving him weight but he is doing that here as well.

That being said, I do like the King trained horse but a little heavy for me!
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Postby bishbosh » Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:49 pm

If I was going to back a trend horse then

monsieur cadou

would be the one that catches my eye at 16-1

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Postby deswalker » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:59 am

Does anyone know if the final entries are out?
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Postby thehurricaneflys » Thu Apr 18, 2013 11:49 am


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Postby Kincsem » Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:15 pm

26 entries.
40/1 the highest outsider odds.Bookies are well prepared.
Hopefully rebecca's choice and my second fancy mister marker both drifts in the market.

I think auroras encore will be out even though he is still on the card.
The ground will be riding soft at the very least and surely sue smith won't risk their hero for this glory. :?

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Postby onruby » Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:56 pm

26 declared so have gone with these 4............

LIVELY BARON @ 25/1 EW - have gone with this Mcain runner as the other has to lump 11-9 whereas selection has 10-3.
REBECCAS CHOICE @ 20/1 EW - another with light weight, and has big chnace if can jump better.
FILL THE POWER @ 25/1 EW - The other runner from the grand national winning trainer who could go well.
PROBLEMA TIC @ 33/1 EW - from the Pipe yard and the other yard runner is 8/1

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Postby thehurricaneflys » Fri Apr 19, 2013 8:37 am

2 for me

Rebecca Choice 20/1 & Captain Americo 40/1
Both with bit to find but with such little weight and should see out the trip in what will likely be testing conditions

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