Grand National Combination Forecasts

miniman
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Postby miniman » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:24 pm

Rambles, don't think any bookies offer top 4 but you can definitely do the 4 in a combination tricast/trifecta which is 24 lines

Rambles
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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:18 pm

Thanks mini. That's a real shame. Is it mathematically more probable against the house then ? How many lines would it theoretically be ? 1234 squared, 256 ?! Sorry if I sound stupid, I used to be good at a level statistics about 20 yrs ago but haven't needed to use that part of my brain since ! Thanks again for any help !

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:31 pm

Also am I best placing with the tote ? Better returns on the pool bets on this race ?

kyle21b
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Postby kyle21b » Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:56 pm

Rambles, it's 24 different combinations of A B C D.

You are best doing exactas and trifectas based on the payouts of recent years (mentioned before in this thread).

You may think about 4 horses which leaves you with 6 reverse forecasts (2 bets) and 4 combination tricasts (6 bets). This gives you 12 bets on the forecasts and 24 on the tricasts.

The good thing about these bets is you don't need much of your usual stake whether it be 10p or £10, the payout will be good if you manage to pick the winners out!

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:07 pm

Thanks Kyle ! Just need to decide on whether to tote or not ? Is there stats on tote vs bookie forecast returns over recent years on the race ?

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:12 pm

Sorry Kyle. I didn't realise you answered my tote question and told me the answer to my tote question was in the post already. Thanks very much for the information. Very helpful mate

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:40 pm

Right. I'm going for three different types ABCD based on creating historic moments mixed in with horses/trainers/jockey combos;

Walsh family sweep ;
Colbert station
Seabass
On his own

McManus 123;

Colbert station
Quiscover Fontaine - like Irish rider, Mullins trained.
Lost glory


The missus picks and she gets 4 picks not three(sorry no rreasoning available from her, she likes twiston family re IM and chose car berry for CG, she loves how he saves some gas for them in the last spurts of a race), and obv Katie for seabass and ruby cos he's a quality jockey, however I read drobgods post about this with interest. ;

Imperial commander
Chicago grey
Seabass
On his own

Mullins 1-2-3

I don't think he's ever won the race ? Or has he ? I don't know since I am new to the sport. But he keeps his horses in good order for big races I think ? I would like to know if he's just been unlucky over the years ?
Whatever the answer something attracts me to thi 123 and am I right that's it's only been done by one trainer on history so far or was that another race ?

Quiscover Fontaine
Quel esprit
On his own


I'm sure I could reduce the stake with the over lap on the missus bets but I can't do the math and will just do what she wants sep to my stuff!

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:42 pm

To estimate odds do u just multiply out like an acca ?

Micko70
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Postby Micko70 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:49 pm

Just for small stakes i have decided to cover the 7 horses picked by myself (Trends) and my family for the race

Seabass
Big Fella Tanks
Chicago Grey
Treacle
Swing Bill
Quel Esprit
Balthazaar King

42 x 25p Forecasts
210 x 10p Tricasts

Rambles
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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:59 pm

Good luck micko. I'm on treacle too on a ew single. Mrs likes the name. That's it. She's Irish and its nice to see the horse seems it too

jimmywomble
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Postby jimmywomble » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:18 pm

Is there a way to calculate the rough returns on a forecast/tricast if you know the odds? Or does it vary bookie to bookie?

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:22 pm

That's the question I want to hear the answer to. Cheers jimmy

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