Grand National Combination Forecasts

nors
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Grand National Combination Forecasts

Postby nors » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:56 am

Wise racing guru Nick Mordin use to and may still select a range of horses that he included in his combination forecasts and exactas on the Grand National. If he hit which he seemed to do on occassions a big payout ensued, as opposed to backing Each Way or in addition to backing Each Way. For very small stakes you can get a big payout, and its a fun bet and should be seen as that.

You would need to check with your individual bookie who still offers these, and in many cases the exacta proved better value.

You can also do combination forecasts where you choose more than 2 horses, but obviously it costs more money.

Exacta:
An exacta is a pool bet involving 2 selections in the same race, predicting 1st and 2nd place in the correct order.

Reversed Exacta
A reversed exacta is 2 bets involving 2 selections in the same race to finish 1st and 2nd in either order.

Straight forecast (sfc)
A straight forecast is 1 bet involving 2 selections in the same race to finish 1st and 2nd in the correct order.

Reversed forecast (rfc)
A reversed forecast is 2 bets involving 2 selections in the same race to finish 1st and 2nd in either order.

For many and just for fun, its often worth adding this in to your portfolio of bets.

Do members do this bet? anyone anythoughts on horse to include in combinations using the stats or the stars or your familys birthdays? It would be great if a member did win a big amount via a forecast. Or do we have any members who regularly places forecasts, and find them a profitable bet.

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Postby Micko70 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:08 am

These dividends can be massive

Here are a few recent returns -

2012 - Ex £737.20; CSF £448.28; TRICAST £4657.68 TRIFECTA £69606.30

2011 - Ex £225.30; CSF £181.25; TRICAST £1934.42 TRIFECTA £4686.20

2010 - Ex £544.50; CSF £130.60; TRICAST £2324.26 TRIFECTA £10724.50

2009 - Ex £2610.90; CSF £1146.54; TRICAST £11864.24 TRIFECTA £64356.70

2008 - Ex £172.10; CSF £148.57; TRICAST £2268.11 TRIFECTA £4664.00

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Postby deswalker » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:11 am

I do use these kind of bets (forecasts and tricasts) on races where I feel I have a few who I want to take on near the head of the market, usually handicaps where I also dutch my selections. I only hit one last year but it paid handsomely and outweighed all the misses easily. In this race;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/resu ... t-handicap

I have also had the incredibly frustrating situation when I had tricasts and forecasts ruined by one horse who came in second with mine in 1st, 3rd and 4th last year. This race;

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/resu ... y-handicap

But that, I'm afraid, comes with the territory!

:win:

I gave it a go on the National last year and Sunnyhillboy and Cappa Bleu were both placed, so I got close. No doubt I will have another small stakes go again... if a tricast comes up its a perfect story to tell about one's tipping prowess...!

:P
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nors
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Postby nors » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:28 am

There is a huge £ difference between some of the payouts. Maybe members who are placing these this weekend could add their thoughts and reasoning behind the selections, and what combinations they are placing.

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Postby jimmywomble » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:55 am

For someone, believe it or not, who's a bit of a novice with horse racing, can I just make sure I understand the terms.

A forecast & exacta are essentially the same bet, the difference being the forecast is fixed odds based on the individual horses odds, whilst the exacta is a bit like betting on the Tote, everyone's money goes into a pot and all those who win get a share.

Presumably then tricast & trifecta are the same, just the first 3 horses rather than 2, and the "cast" & "cta" bits give away the type of bet, i.e. fixed odds & pool.

Cheers

Jimmy

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Postby deswalker » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:10 am

As far as I understand thats spot on jimmywomble. :win:
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Postby horage » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:07 pm

the exacta is a pool bet and with big fields can return big dividends
if a big outsider wins with an unfancied horse 2nd.........

but a word of wisdom for the grand national

it can be quite hard to pick the winner let alone the 1st and 2nd

I prefer cross tricast doubles for a big spring doulble ......

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Postby Flat Cap and Whippet » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:41 pm

My theory is that if you are backing more than one horse in any race, particularly if they are double figure prices, you should always do the exacta/forecast. This has been a painful lesson in the past and paid handsome dividends at Cheltenham, so I will be doing that again.

My fancies are Chicago Grey, Imperial Commander and Rare Bob and will combi those 3.
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Postby kyle21b » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:24 pm

I may have a go at this year. My strong fancy is Cappa Bleu with the dangers being Teaforthree and Chicago Grey. I may add Join Together as he is fourth in my shortlist for this.

For 4 horses that is 6 reverse forecasts. so £6 stake for 12 50p bets. Hey ho, it's all a bit of fun on GN day!!

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Postby Rambles » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:03 pm

I like the sound of a reverse FC on the Jp McManus duo of Colbert station and Sunnyhillboy. Jp hasn't had a great year so far based on his ammo and I don't think he did too well in the fairy house weekend just gone. He was pipped at the post last year by Neptune and I hope for the sake of my small stake forecast thAt it works out for him this year ! Good luck all with these bets. The odds can be mighty rewarding !!

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Postby TeddyT » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:14 pm

I love having a go at these bets.

My most painful memory is doing combo exactas and trifectas involving Mckelvey, Slim Pickings and Philson Run (2nd, 3rd and 4th) in 2007. Unfortunately winner Silver Birch spoiled the bumper payout.

I did manage to get first and second in 2011 (Ballabriggs and Oscar Time) and will definitely be having another crack this year. It will be interesting to hear what other people are doing, how many selections etc.

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Postby Rambles » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:00 pm

Is this possible as a bet with bookies online ?

I want to pick 4 horses to be the top 4 and use these horses in a combo tricast too. Is it possible to bet on a combination. 4way cast across 4 selections and is it 24 lines ? And so what will my total number of lines be ?

Any help is most appreciated ?!

I hope my request makes sense ?

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