Grand National - Number of Finishers

drobgod
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Grand National - Number of Finishers

Postby drobgod » Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:59 pm

This is a bet that really interests me and of all the so-called novelty bets that go hand in hand with the Grand National I believe this is one you can actually make money on.

I'm not sure that the fences being made slightly easier has had any baring on the amount of finishers as if you look at 1997 and 1999 when the race was run on good ground the amount of finishers was 47% and 56% and the last three years run on the same ground saw finishers of 38%, 48% and 35% so if anything slightly down.

The real factor on how many finish seems to be the ground. The last two National's to be run on ground Soft or worse were in 1998 and 2001 and in those two contests we had 6 finish out of 37 and 4 out of 40 which is only 16% and 10%.

I believe the current going at Aintree is Good/Soft so unless the wet weather arrives again next week we are looking at having around half the field finish I'd say.....any opinions??

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Postby mogga82 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:28 pm

There is a school of thought that making the fences easier has actually resulted in the national being more dangerous and therefore potentially more fallers!

Reason being that the horses go faster and pay the still tough fences less respect because they are easier, and also more try to go round the inside where the landings are easier, making it more likely horses get brought down

Possibly an angle not many will have thought off, so could be some value in going low on number of finishers? Especially with the good ground, horses going even faster?
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Postby budgie27 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:47 pm

My tuppence - don't think the fences will make any difference to the number of finishers they are still big obstacles to overcome and I think you will fall no matter the inner make up of the fences - i.e horses will fall because of the steepness of the fences and therefore the angle that you come down at. When you take into account G/S ground they will go fast enough and a lot of horses won't be in contention, given the higher quality of horse the race attracts now perhaps those with no chance won't be risked to finish i.e will get pulled up. So good/good to soft ground as seems likely more horses might be capable of completing but will they be persevered with? My feeling is that we will see around 20 finishers if the ground stays at it is - but logic might tell us that the number might be a few lower than 50%? Perhaps around 18 or lower as a complete guess? If you were playing spreads (which I wouldn't) perhaps 15-18 finishers? Could be as low as 10 though or as high as ??? maybe 26?? At least 10 likely to go attritionally - fall or BD so that leaves 30 - how many a fence behind coming to the last 3, if they are still running perhaps a minimum of 5 - so down to 25 but that is total guesswork - long time ago but you have to remember Foinavon!!!

Looking now at the markets and they are calling it around 16 or 17 so there (imho) is not a lot of play in the market. So a bet in this market is what I call gambling (red or black) not betting (to value).

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Postby budgie27 » Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:06 am

A special bet - if you like such things - Stan James are no faller at the first fence at 11/.4 you'll know if you have won almost instantly - it's probably closer to Evens than the price they are offering?? I'm going to have a little punt on that managed online to get a fair bet on it. A winning race if nothing comes down - it's a punt and have no idea of the stats, I don't think too many recently have come down at the first and this year they will be that bit closer which can make it a bit more tricky? Still the odds near to 3-1 might be a point or 2 wrong so worth a crack?

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Postby The Executioner » Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:01 pm

The MOST number of horses to finish the course is 23 in 1984

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Postby TeddyT » Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:53 pm

Re first fence fallers

There has only been one occasion in the last fifteen years when a horse HASN'T fallen at the first fence (2008).

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Postby nors » Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:40 am

Jockeys have been advised to slow down as they approach the first fence by the organisers. The start has also been moved away from the hubbub of the grandstand, to try and calm the mad rush to the 1st. Whether this will make any difference to fallers we shall see, but the 1st fence all viewers will be glued to, so from a PR point of view all runners still standing would be better.

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 8:45 pm

You wouldn't back your betting bank on no fallers the first but we have lost exactly one in each of the last three years. This year they will be starting on the flat rather than coming down hill and as well publicised the fences have been changed. 3 in 3 years means 11/4 is a poor bet - just a fun bet - might give you a nice feeling if you win before the 2nd fence or as seems likely your bet will be down with your actual win bets. The quality of the race is being ramped up year after year so stretching any statistics out does not take into account changing conditions and this is something that the stats/trends guys don't always take into account.

Teddy good stat though and I hadn't looked into it - I wonder what the percentage over say the past 5 years was of first fence fallers in top grade long distance handicaps? A pure guess - less than 10%?

Obviously this race and it's fences are a unique challenge but if it was a normal handicap chase, let's say around a tough course like Cheltenham what would we expect the normal number of fallers to be at the first fence? Less than 50% - I see it as a black and red bet total gamble but bit of fun and might be easier than "guessing" how many will finish which can be 6 (likely to be far more) or 26 (very unlikely also). I presume the market for number of finishers will be more competitive during the rest of the week my inclination if you were to have a bet on the race would be to aim lower than 50% but of course that will be the layers inclination too!

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Postby thehurricaneflys » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:00 am

3/1 on no faller at the first looks big to me

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Postby bigjeff » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:36 pm

Ill say, due to good weather conditions, no rain, thus the ground being good, maybe to firm, i'd go for +15 to finish

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Postby budgie27 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:37 pm

No fallers so far at first fence - WH went 5-1 so had a tiny bit of that - probably rates a fairer bet at that price than picking the field to win!

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Postby budgie27 » Sat Apr 06, 2013 3:40 pm

Nice little win on the novelty bet for me - made up for Baily Green running so poorly.

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