IRISH NATIONAL 2013

andystaff
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IRISH NATIONAL 2013

Postby andystaff » Thu Mar 28, 2013 2:19 pm

Any thoughts anyone?
Last edited by andystaff on Thu Mar 28, 2013 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Thu Mar 28, 2013 2:21 pm

like the look of 3 so far.

Home Farm
Competetive Edge
Rich Revival.

thehurricaneflys
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Postby thehurricaneflys » Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:40 am

For me its Rich Revival or Gooneyella
Just seen the field there. Questions answered and Quietly fancied are not without chance either
Given the season WM has had, it would not surprise me to see him pick this up for the first time

nors
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Postby nors » Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:46 pm

Looking at the official ratings of the winners over the last 6 years, they all had an official rating between 131 and 136, if we expand that to say 130 - 138 and then thin out via the the weights of the last 6 winners, who all carried less than 10 stone 5 lbs, we are left with the following list.

The shortest priced winner in the last 6 years was 12/1 and the biggest 33/1.

137 Competitive Edge
137 Cootamundra
137 He´llberemembered
137 Home Farm
137 Jacksonslady
137 Muirhead
137 Whodoyouthink
136 Rich Revival
135 Marasonnien
134 Away We Go
134 Romanesco
132 Cross Appeal
132 Jadanli
131 Questions Answered
130 Blazing Beacon
130 Panther Claw
130 Start Me Up

I would need to look at way more info and the betting but Panthers Claw jumped out initially with such a low weight. The owners Giggingstown have 4 entries spead out amongst different trainers so look like they are mounting a serious challenge.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/i ... l-form.php

ar line
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Postby ar line » Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:52 pm

The last 10 winners have all been 11/1, 12/1, 14/1, 20/1, 25/1, 4x33/1 and one at single fig 9/1. Wt has ranged from 9.13-10.08. A quick look shows almost the entire field is in that range so no real help there other than to say don't take short priced runners.

I'm going for Barry Geraghty's JACKSONSLADY
Reasons: She's within those ranges and it's my wife's maiden name.

Seriously, shes a novice but seems very versatile and has won or placed in 11 of her 13 races.

Also a saver on Muirhead as it's a small town near where I live.

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Postby drobgod » Fri Mar 29, 2013 5:31 pm

I like the look of Home Farm in this race. I think this 6 year-old could of got in here quite lightly and although only one horse of his age has won this race since 1985 that was trained by Arthur Moore as is Home Farm, so he'll know if the horse is grown up enough for the challenge.

Home Farm won over 2m 5f last time beating White Star Line in splendid fashion with Marosonnien back in third. White Star Line went on to run a respectable third in the JLT at Cheltenham, while Marosonnien had finished 2nd only 2 lengths behind RSA winner Lord Windermere in his previous outing.

Home Farm hasn't won over further than 2m 5f under rules, but did win a P-T-P over 3 miles in his younger days and his breeding suggests that not only will stamina not be an issue, but he should even improve over the longer trip.

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Postby Micko70 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:23 pm

I was going to do a blog on the race but probably won't have time so i will stick a few 10 year trends on here instead

No real trend for Age, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10yos have all won in the last 10 years.

Weight is a very interesting one, all 10 winners carried 10-12 or less to victory, but if you take out 2006 winner Point Barrow (10-08) & 2003 winner Timbera (10-12) all of the other 8 carried 10-05 or less.

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Postby shady pepper » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:04 am

trends wise there are 13 stats that at least 7 of the last 10 winners met. applying those two horses come out clear MARASONNIEN and PANTHER CLAW. of the two i prefer the latter as marasonnien is still a chase maiden and looks priced on potential rater than proven. PANTHER CLAW needs about 6 miles to be seen at its best but could be plugging on at the end, the softer the better for this one whose form on heavy reads,(2131)
14/1 Each Way

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:23 pm

Oh yes please I want to bet on horse races in Ireland particularly handicaps based on trends. If the trend is for a horse who has never shown anything before that would be pretty cool. I quite like that as well - take out your outliers then the stats are unconstebale but the outliers are still there - Graham Cunningham was a bit funny recently when he said stats people should be forced to wear whit coats at the racecourse. Sure there is some statistical proof that backing horses on trends works better than your own eyes (judgement).

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:37 pm

No horse has won a Gold Cup as 6yo, no winner of GN has carried more than 11st, no winner of World Cup since two decades was American trained, no winner of the Derby won without running previously that season, no horse has won back the Champion Hurdle, I could keep going on but seems a little pointless.

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:51 pm

My problem isn't so much to do with statistical analysis which can be important but the fact that a certain amount of skill is taken out of picking winners. If you take the skill factor out I can't see anything but boringness! If it was so easy to predict winners then they would all be fav - I'm not a convert and I never will be of trying to reduce a sport in which the animals are not predictable and the rules are constantly changing.

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Postby Micko70 » Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:03 am

I agree Budgie to a certain extent

I love my trends and have backed some very big priced winners over the years using trends.

Trends don't always find the winner but they do help to go a long way in finding the horses that are less likely to win, therefore reducing your choices for the race.

I have done trends for races for years and i know Shady pepper from my own old website also uses trends, but we use different rends and often come up with different horses.

There are some trends that are massive and should always be followed, like the official rating of the Winter Derby Winner.

The last 10 winners had all been rated over 100 (i think) and only 3 horses came into the equation for the race using that trend, then when you looked at other trends it left us with 1 horse, which was a stand out selection and the horse duly won, ok it was favourite but was available to back at 5/2 at the 5 day stage

Quite a lot of trends get smashed every day of the week, but other trends stand up time after time

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