Grand National entries 2013

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:59 pm

TARQUINIUS

Think he lacks the class and hard to make a case for, Except trained by Gordon Elliott. Only a £8k cahase win! :no:

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Postby andystaff » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:04 pm

ANY CURRENCY

This horse gives me loads of headaches and have backed it numerous times. Had some very good form in some very good races, but always seems to come up just short at the very highest level. A class 3 chase win suggests not good enough, but then runs like the 3rd to Tidal Bay in the bet365 suggest otherwise. I would say a very good chance of a place. :no:

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Postby andystaff » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:11 pm

POKER DE SIVOLA(N/R)

Winner of the 4 miler at Cheltenham and the bet365 at Sandown. This horse
seems to have everything needed to win. But injury problems since that bet365 have left doubts. If he can reproduce any of that form you would give him a serious chance. :yes:
Last edited by andystaff on Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:39 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby andystaff » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:14 pm

deswalker

Thanks for that mate on the Mr Moonshine 3m point to point.
:oops:

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Postby deswalker » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:25 pm

Well, I don't count it either really, but the point I'm making is that the evidence doesn't really suggest that stamina is a problem... even if class is!

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Postby mountie » Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:00 pm

What are peoples thoughts on Imperial Commander?

If you go along with the trail of thought regarding weight being less of an issue these days due to classier animals etc then he must come into contention?

On the other hand he is top weight and may not quite get the trip.

But I remember looking at Neptune Collonges last year and telling myself repeatedly he was the best horse in the race yet due to weight I decided that something on a smaller weight would likely get it beat so only backed NC to place.

I'm struggling for alternatives to Cappa Bleu this year but will be (along with many others) kicking myself if IC does somehow get home with top weight.

Auroras Encore looks worth chancing at huge odds given previous years form. A spring horse maybe?
Last edited by mountie on Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby deswalker » Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:32 pm

My thoughts on Imperial Commander are thus:

He isn't the horse he was at 12 years old now. NTD had him spot on for the Argento (or so he said beforehand) and he lost to Cape Tribulation. That rival is a good horse, but not top class and it means that he doesn't have anything to play with with regards to his current mark... despite previous successes.

Lugging top weight around the National is definitely possible for the right horse, he is not the right horse at his age and position in his career.

He's a sound jumper and I think he will stay well enough, so I hope and expect he will get round. I can see him coming home 8th or 9th and connections being delighted with that. I can see the quotes now: "he's done us proud", "gave it everything he had", "he gave me a great spin", etc...

...all very heartwarming, but as a betting proposition? I think 16/1 best price is akin to a tax on the sentimental!

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Postby andystaff » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:29 am

QUINZ is a N/R.

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Postby deswalker » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:53 pm

Poker de Sivola N/R... haven't got an explanation yet. I wonder why?

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Postby welshpip » Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:03 pm

My 33/1 I took in imperial commander in February is looking goooooood :win:
With Bet Victor if he comes 6th I'm still well up sweet
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Postby Shrews » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:39 pm

Ballabriggs looks nailed on for a place IMO, but I think something will come and finish in front of him. Trouble is i'm not sure who. I did this at the weekend so a few have dropped out since but basically I cut it down to a 'long list' of 10 and then analysed this deeper to get it down to 4.

It's similar to what I used to pick Ballabriggs 2 years ago but after Neptune Collonges last season I decided not to dismiss horses 'outright' based on breaking one trend. Therefore, I have eliminated a horse this time only if they have broken more than one trend or form criteria (as detailed below)

Factors I considered. Usual trends first
8-12 yo
135+
11st 6 or less
3m+ win
10 chases
Won a £17k

As said, I allowed horses with 1 broken trend still to go to the next stage, which left the following (those with 1 broken trend in brackets) :

Across The Bay (1)
Always Waining
Auroras Encore
Backstage (1)
Ballabriggs
Balthazar King
Becauseicouldntsee (1)
Beshabar
Big Fella Thanks
Bob Lingo (1)
Bostons Angel
Cappa Bleu (1)
Chicago Grey
Colbert Station (1)
Forpadydeplasterer
Harry The Viking (1)
Join Together
Joncol
Lion Na Bearnai
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
Oscar Time
Quinz
Rare Bob
Roberto Goldback
Saint Are (1)
Seabass (1)
Sunnyhillboy
Swing Bill
Tarquinius (1)
Tatenen (1)
Teaforthree
The Rainbow Hunter (1)
Tofino Bay
Treacle
Weird Al (1)
What A Friend (1)
Wyck Hill

Then I removed horses based on them not winning two x 3m chases on either good or good to soft. Obviously this will need a rethink if it comes up soft. Again I allowed them one failed criteria but discounted a failure if the horse had now accumulated two. This eliminated :

Across The Bay
Backstage
Becauseicouldntsee
Bob Lingo
Colbert Station
Seabass
Tatenen
The Rainbow Hunter
Weird Al

Then I eliminated horses if they'd had 2 or more falls in their entire career (included 'Unseated' but not 'Brought Down') and I applied the same 'accumulated allowance' criteria. This eliminated:

Auroras Encore
Big Fella Thanks
Bostons Angel
Oscar Time
Saint Are

Then I eliminated horses if they hadn't finished 1,2,3 or 4 last time out or hadn't run within 50 days (and the accumulated allowance ). Eliminated:

Balthazar King
Forpadytheplasterer
Harry The Viking
Join Together
Joncol
Magnanimity
Mumbles Head
Roberto Goldback
Sunnyhillboy
Tarquinus
What A Friend
Wyck Hill

This left the top 10 but I then compared their best rated form on gd or gd/sft over 3m+ versus their official rating for this race and eliminated any horse who's OR was higher (with the accumulated allowance still in progress)

..........................Best........Today

Ballabriggs 150.........152 (not eliminated, as this was the only horse that had received no allowance up to this point)
Cappa Bleu 140.........145
Chicago Grey 150.........141
Lion Na Bearnai 135.........147
Quinz 144.........144
Rare Bob 145.........140
Swing Bill 141.........142
Teaforthree 146.........151
Tofino Bay 147.........149
Treacle 127.........143

This left :

Ballabriggs
Chicago Grey
Quinz
Rare Bob


Quinz is a NR, so it leaves just the three and even discounting trends and seeing this as a 'normal' race I think those three are a strong three to chose from. They jump well, have good stamina, will go on the likely ground and have won decent races

Of those it's still Ballabriggs for me as he's the only one of the three to win in fields of 20+. He looks nailed on for a place with luck in running.

Trouble is this race always throws up horses that love the race but then seem to find one that's too good on the day. So it's finding that one that's not so obvious. Rare Bob could be that horse but I also think that Forpadytheplasterer@66/1 and Joncol @50/1 are worth consideration

Forpadydeplasterer - has never fallen in 24 chases and has raced against the very best with a superb record of 3-12-3 and 6 outside the top 3. Superb really considering the company he's kept. Getting the trip is a big 'if' though.

Joncol - I reckon Paul Nolan has always had this race as a target for this horse. Why would this be his first race in the UK otherwise ? He's another that jumps really well (0 falls from 18 chases) who's stamina is also in doubt.

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Postby andystaff » Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:43 am

MAJOR MALARKEY

Won a £5k class 3 and a £2k class 4 chase. Had a very good run in the Midland National finishing 2nd to Master Overseer. Think he lacks the class not the stamina. :no:

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