Grand National entries 2013

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:33 pm

underdogslover

Nice price on Seabass mate, good luck with those. Not be long now!
So far i've got win bets on teaforthree & Seabass and E/W on Roberto Goldback, Across The Bay,Saint are. I've left others too long and too short now. Did have E/W on Tofino Bay but think he's not gonna run in national now. :hope:

UnderdogsLover
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Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:10 pm

andystaff thanks :) yes got nice price on Seabass.
Yes like taking prices early, they be lot shorter like now etc..

Done that horse cause it could make history if it wins.. :)
So that will fit National Story..

Good luck with your bets andy.. :win:

National this is the race when back bout 6 of them lol..
to keep me interest thru the race..
just incase couple fall early, or brought down beechers chair
causes havoc.

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Postby budgie27 » Thu Mar 28, 2013 9:13 pm

Well I won't back a horse at less than 20-1 and as Tofino Bay now out - I am going to plump for Rare Bob at 25-1 EW 6 places NRNB with BetVictor. He's got the back story if you like that sort of thing with B Cooper riding at the age of 20. Jumps well enough, stays ok without proving this is for him, but can be rated around 145 and gets into this race off 140 so you could argue he is well enough in. He will do for me as he was going ok though very early BD so who knows. He's got some experience of the fences - he's got round in a Becher chase at least and that off 11-10, he gets to run off 10-6 or 10-7 if Imperial comes out here.

So not a winner (lol) and placer - more like two possible placers Seabass and Rare Bob.

andystaff
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Postby andystaff » Thu Mar 28, 2013 9:34 pm

budgie27

Had Rare Bob & Chicago Grey last year and i don't like leaving them out but i can't back them all. But keep fighting that nagging feeling about leaving them out! :x

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Postby budgie27 » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:04 pm

Well Rare Bob quite often ridden prominently and at twice the price put him in and hope to god I've got C Grey right (never liked the horse, one of the worst jumpers (of some class) you will ever see), Rare Bob is 25-1 6 places and C Grey only 12-1 so the value has to be more with the Hughes runner? Like I say he doesn't convince that 4m3 and a bit will be up his street and I suppose that C Grey has proven he stays at least 4ms round chelts so should see this out - I just don't like the horse think he is a bit mental like Junior where if it doesn't go right for him he just sulks and runs terribly, they say he has had a wind operation and with G Elliott you wouldn't rule him out. Rare Bob can run prominently and given what happened to him last year can see him being up near the pace and that can give an option to trading him out during the race.

On His Own 7-1 best price now - he can win by 30Ls for me at that price though I can see him going off shorter.

My feeling on this race is that you want to be on at 20-1 plus as that's not far off the price to get round unhindered. So 12-1 about C Grey given his run style is taking a lot on trust albeit his jockey is a master of coming from well off the pace - if he doesn't fall I can see C Grey being close to a fence behind coming to Becher's 2nd time, is he good enough to make up that ground, dunno but I won't be risking my money on it. I think the race will play out quite similar to last year where the first 6 or so where right up with the pace coming to the last 3 fences.

p.s. probably back C Grey! lol as bound to have got him wrong.

Cappa Bleu 12-1 not sure he is a winner of this race - 2lbs better off but for 12Ls - seems an unlikely wiinner (at the price at least - 25-1 might have been interesting).

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:51 am

:yes: agree with andystaff..

Don t like leaving horses out if backed last year..
thats why we only do bout 6 horses, and thats it..

Thats why i done Ballabriggs, you can not leave him out
a national winner, that be niice if he wins it again!
plus he was 6th last year...
Only Red Rum done that bit, that was years ago.. :cool:

Still like Seabass, hoping it will make history :)
Yes race getting nearer now, hopefully Spring soon
be here..

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:38 pm

Seabass - now Ruby seems certain to ride OHO then do you think his chance is lessened by his jockey? For me personally yes, we saw in the GN last year and run behind Roi de Mee that she isn't strong in a finish and I will definitely be laying off for a free bet - still think will run well all being equal but unless left in front I can't see KW being capable of delivering the killer blow. Any thoughts? Given went off last year as 8-1 jf and guessing that that money will appear again I'll get off at 10-1 or so - my problem is not so much that the horse can't win (it probably can - as long as they don't over water) but can KW produce it to win in what might be a battle to the line. No offence to the fairer sex but KW an amateur and not a bad one but if it was AP, RW, DoR or others coming to a driving finish who would you rather on your horse?

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:11 pm

I'm going to go a bit brave and say horses who can't win (or let's say they have less chance of winning than their odds would suggest).

This is my list in odds order:

Cappa Bleu - stayed on last year but 12lS off winning - will he get such a good run through this year and is that good enough to win - I personally doubt it.

Chicago Grey - he only needs to clout one and he he is likely to be out of the race, a wind operation allowed him to win a nothing race in ireland, every reason to think he will not win this

T43 - when connections are making excuses about trip (to the racecourse) and ground most likely they are baffled by his run at Haydock, take away the Haydock run and everything would be good but that is a big concern for me. Would have been one of my picks if not for that.

Sunnyhillboy - seems a big ask from a 10lb higher mark - wouldn't rule out but career best at his age a possible concern along with his "apparent" illness prior to Chelts

Imperial Commander - a dream win, cracking horse, just can't see this being his thing

Ballabriggs - 12 yo who is fairly weighted on his win but struggled to catch up faster rivals last year7

Across the Bay - recent watering of the course a help - but looks quite high in the weights and would need some rain to slow other better ground horses down including SHB to get in the 4 (or 6)

I'm not laying any of these horses just think that they may not represent good value.

If you are going to bet on the race as ever make sure you bet BoG prior to the race as most bookies will end up an obscene 130% for the race so get some value prior to race time.
Last edited by budgie27 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:34 pm

And I'll throw in another one purely based on price and the fact that W Mullins preferred PdB and I think Ruby did as well - not saying he can't win but On His Own reflects pretty pour value given he fell last year - that can have a negative effect as well as the positive effect I see others saying. Think of a price and double it in this race where you might fall or more likely be brought down. What is the price of On His Own being happy after last year and winning without being hampered - my guess around 14-1, So you might pick the winner at 7-1 (less on the day I'm sure) but you will have got lucky (as will anybody picking this the hardest probably of all races).

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Postby budgie27 » Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:06 pm

Roi du Mee winning again has to be a reasonable steer to the horses that finished behind him last time especially as he beat Pandorama (three time G1 winner) at the very least does not let down the Bobbyjo form.

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:51 am

Across the Bay yes am beggining to warm to him,
not sure his odds are think 33/1?

Budgie..
So Ruby riding Seabass now?
shame that is wanted the lady jockey to win the national,
yes allways look for horse fairy tale story that could of been one of
them.

Plus Ballabriggs, never rule him out, he did well finish 6th last year.
12 year olds do win the natiional, like what Amerleigh House did :)
anyway done Ballabriggs.
Still got 2 more horses to look for now..

Hopefully Spring getting nearer.. :)

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Postby mogga82 » Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:29 pm

So Ruby riding Seabass now?
Where did you see that?! :shock:

He's riding ON HIS OWN isn't he?
TO DARE IS TO DO

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