Welsh National 2012

TeddyT
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Welsh National 2012

Postby TeddyT » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:05 pm

One of my favourite races of the year and one it would be great to get some discussion going on OLBG for this race.

At the moment the course is waterlogged and with rain forecast as possible for most of the next week in Chepstow it may be odds against the Welsh National taking place on its traditional date.

Nevertheless, this is one of the premier staying chases of the season so lets see if we can try and find the winner.

With fifty-five horses still declared for the race it might pay to start off by looking at some trends to see who that might leave us as contenders. The ten year trends most often used seem to be as follows:

  • Winning form over at least 3 miles 10/10
    Ran at least once that season 10/10
    Aged 6-9 10/10
    Ran no more than twice that season 9/10
    Top four finish lto 9/10
    Rated 130+ 9/10

    Winning course form 7/10


If you apply the top six trends to the field it leaves you with a short list of:

  • Major Malarkey
    Michel Le Bon
    Universal Soldier


All of the above have also won at Chepstow so the final trend will not narrow our shortlist any further.

As with all trends lists they should only be used as a guide and its up to you to include or remove the trends from the list you feel are most relevant.

Of the horses thrown up by the above I would favour Major Malarkey and Universal Soldier.

Major Malarkey has shown consistent form in the last year at stamina trips and Universal Soldier has looked a dour stayer from early in his career and the Welsh National could be just the test he needs to bring out the best in him

Outside of the trends, the obvious form choice is Teaforthree for whom this race has been the target for over a year since the horse was successful in a novice chase at the track in December 2011.
Proven stamina, course form and the ability to handle the likely conditions are all boxes that are ticked for this horse and he must have a very strong chance. Trainer Rebecca Curtis has remarked that the 8yo takes quite a lot of getting fit and it looks no coincidence that he has won on his third outing for the last two years. The Welsh National will be his third start of 2012/13.

Who do you fancy for this race and why? Are we likely to see a shock winner or will the fancied runners prevail?

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Postby Micko70 » Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:56 am

Nice post Ted

As anybody who reads my posts know, i often do 10 year trends on the big races but for this race i have used the last 15 years and have noticed the following -

All of the last 15 winners were aged 9 or under.

Only 3 horses have carried more than 11-00 to victory in those 15 years.

No winner was rated higher than 152

10 of the last 15 winners either won or finished 2nd last time out.

12 of the last 15 winners had their last run between 21 & 39 days ago.

11 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 3 miles.

11 of the last 15 winners had previously won at the course, the other 4 winners were having their first run there

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Postby The Shark » Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:51 am

From Monkeytennis
Looking forward to this race and as usual it looks set to be run in an absolute bog after the initial meeting had to be abandoned due to waterlogging.

I'm not sure I fancy the current favourite Tea for three, he didn't get that close in the Hennessey and I'm not sure I would want to be on a front runner in this anyway. Viking Blond was pulled up when favourite in this last year and again I'd want to take on the front runners and I'm not sure he's reliable enough anyway.

Michel Le Bon looks very interesting, he ran a great race behind The Package who then franked that form with a 4th in the Hennessey and he looks extremely lightly raced for a 9yo. He loves soft ground and has a win to his name at Chepstow and should go very very well for Paul Nicholls on this step up in trip. 9/1 looks fair to me.

Sona Sasta is the only other horse with single figure odds and although he goes well at Chepstow I'm not sure he's well enough handicapped to win a National, I'd expect him to finish around 4th.

I'm not sure why Tidal Bay is 12/1, will he not run if Michel Le Bon runs? Probably the most solid horse in the entire field and I'll be watching the decs carefully for this one and he will have to carry an Each Way wager if likely to run in the race.

What does everyone else fancy? Anyone going? I think it might be a race to watch the final decs for before having a serious punt but I have had a nibble at Michel Le Bon.

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Postby TeddyT » Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:46 pm

Tidal Bay runs tomorrow in the Lexus

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Postby Kincsem » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:41 am

Poor record for the favs in recent times and teaforthree has plenty to do being in that seat now.

I have a few that i am interested without the obvious trend in their favour.
Giles cross,Soll,Master overseer,Monbeg dude and insentivise.
I will just wait for the race day before punting but surely will chose 2 or 3 bets from this 5 that i liked.

Also remember this season has thrown some old warriors into the winners circle like hello bud and tidal bay.

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Postby TeddyT » Thu Jan 03, 2013 1:53 pm

Bit of nostalgia for Welsh National fans:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV4w0GZPriA


Amazing performance from Carvills Hill

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Postby TeddyT » Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:15 pm

With the reopening of this race we now have a different interpretation of the trends for the Welsh National.

The changing of the running of the race from 2012 to 2013 means that a number of horses no longer meet the trends as they have now become too old with the addition of an extra year to their ages on all horses 'birthday' of January 1st.

If we stick religiously to the trends I have outlined above the only horse to meet the trends now is:
  • UNIVERSAL SOLDIER
But if we stick to the original ages of the horses at the time the race was due to be originally run then the following also make the trends:
  • MICHEL LE BON
    MAJOR MALARKEY
    MASTER OVERSEER
Full details on my blog

As I stated earlier, despite the trends I have a big fancy for TEAFORTHREE - what does anyone else fancy?

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Postby TeddyT » Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:29 pm

Eighteen declared for the Welsh National with seventeen likely to run as Alfie Spinner has Sandown as his first preference.

Some interesting jockey bookings:

Paul Carberry on Monbeg Dude trained by Michael Scudamore

David Casey on Harouet trained by Peter Bowen

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