The Welsh National

The Seven Pillars of Wisdom
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The Welsh National

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:14 pm

Worthy favourite and I do have him on side for Aintree but the value has gone for Chepstow. Two horses that on paper look overpriced at the moment are PRIME VENTURE and THE TWO AMIGOS particularly the latter who is four times the price of Potters Corner. If you fancy Potters Corner then TTA's must surely be on your list too. The line of form through One Of Us suggests that TTA's has quite a bit in hand of Potters Corner. On their respective runs against One Of Us, Potters Corner was essentially 13lbs better than the Nick Williams horse. TTA comes out 22lbs better which equates to a 9lbs pull with a further 3lbs pull in the Chepstow weights.

Current thinking is that THE TWO AMIGOS is overpriced at 33/1.

Prime Venture is lurking on a very low weight and he travelled noticeably well in Potters Corner's Midlands National until failing to see out the 34f. The slightly shorter trip makes him interesting off 10st 1lb and he runs his race at Chepstow and a bit like TTA, if you take form literally through Ramses De Teillee then off his low weight he has the beating of the top weighted favourite.

Current thinking is that PRIME VENTURE is overpriced at 25/1 although his win ratio is not encouraging.

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Re: The Welsh National

Postby Zipster » Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:56 pm

Good luck, I have not had a proper look yet, will wait until the final decs are announced.

We do have a blog up for the race (https://www.olbg.com/blogs/welsh-nation ... s-analysis) with trainer/jockey stats as well as trends for the race.
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Re: The Welsh National

Postby Tipsy Mouse » Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:02 pm

Well, you've certainly done well to pick out some value TSPOW. I wonder if Evan Williams has a feeling for Virginia Chick. You'd think that being Welsh he would dearly love to win this race and in particular with his daughter in the saddle. Drifted to 40/1 in the six place market. Had to have a go.

Cant have Elegant Escape on this ground under top weight. Definite lay for me especially as the race is even longer now.

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Re: The Welsh National

Postby Tipsy Mouse » Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:16 pm

That was a really beautiful write up TSPOW. Well done on both placers there. They certainly were overpriced and you even mentioned the winner in your piece. Well done.

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Re: The Welsh National

Postby Arc Jimmy » Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:50 am

Have used a Free £5 bet with Sky for the 2021 renewal on ASK ME EARLY ew 6/1 for trainer H.Fry , horse has just won 24f class 3 hurdle race at the course .

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Re: The Welsh National

Postby meoldmate » Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:52 am

Very good view on the Welsh national on a couple of horses, annoying part Two Amigos is not running and like wise with Prime Venture.
Potters Corner is out of the handicap along with another another six, these I have the tendency of crossing a line through as I feel they have more to deliver.

The horse I am highlighting is MIGHTY THUNDER, his last run over three miles at Wetherby in a graded race, can be noted with what he showed, he was outpaced by potential useful sorts but the manner he stayed on to be fourth over this trip, with jumping well, showed he is well within himself.

Three miles is on the short side and this trip today of nearly four miles plays to his stamina strengths.
MIGHTY THUNDER has won the Scottish National and the Edinburgh National, fair enough ground was good at Ayr but Musselburgh was soft.
He also showed stamina was his forte in the Midlands National where he was just run out of it by Time To Get Up.

With the ability to stay like his stablemate One For Arthur but MIGHTY THUNDER likes to be played prominently and not held up and this can bear well with him at Chepstow, where prominently ridden horses can stay there.

I am glad Native River and Elegant Escape stayed in to keep the weights down, otherwise Miss Lucinda Russell charge may of carried more weight than 10-10.

MIGHTY THUNDER has a decent weight, Derek Fox riding well and the horse seems sound and ready to deliver a telling run.
His pedigree indicates soft ground is within his stamina strengths with his sire German bred Malinas and dam sire Turtle Island,

14/1 looks great to play at and fingers cross rewarding with a big run, good luck all with selections.
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Re: The Welsh National

Postby meoldmate » Tue Dec 28, 2021 8:37 am

What a mess with the start, over three miles and jockeys want to be pushing for a position.

I do not understand why this is, as any other race on any day, they will give lengths away or go walk forward and the starter lets the flag down with the field a good way back from the start.

Jockeys should be reprimanded and starter told to get them in order and go right back and not take a turn.

My selection likes to prominent and with all the scrimmaging, he lost that chance and never gave a good account.

Hope the Grand National start does not turn into a farce with the start.
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