Current thinking is that THE TWO AMIGOS is overpriced at 33/1.
Prime Venture is lurking on a very low weight and he travelled noticeably well in Potters Corner's Midlands National until failing to see out the 34f. The slightly shorter trip makes him interesting off 10st 1lb and he runs his race at Chepstow and a bit like TTA, if you take form literally through Ramses De Teillee then off his low weight he has the beating of the top weighted favourite.
Current thinking is that PRIME VENTURE is overpriced at 25/1 although his win ratio is not encouraging.
We do have a blog up for the race (https://www.olbg.com/blogs/welsh-nation ... s-analysis) with trainer/jockey stats as well as trends for the race.
Syndicate owner in Pentland Hills, Getaway Trump, Farouk De Cheneau, In The Cove & Boreen Boy.
Cant have Elegant Escape on this ground under top weight. Definite lay for me especially as the race is even longer now.
Potters Corner is out of the handicap along with another another six, these I have the tendency of crossing a line through as I feel they have more to deliver.
The horse I am highlighting is MIGHTY THUNDER, his last run over three miles at Wetherby in a graded race, can be noted with what he showed, he was outpaced by potential useful sorts but the manner he stayed on to be fourth over this trip, with jumping well, showed he is well within himself.
Three miles is on the short side and this trip today of nearly four miles plays to his stamina strengths.
MIGHTY THUNDER has won the Scottish National and the Edinburgh National, fair enough ground was good at Ayr but Musselburgh was soft.
He also showed stamina was his forte in the Midlands National where he was just run out of it by Time To Get Up.
With the ability to stay like his stablemate One For Arthur but MIGHTY THUNDER likes to be played prominently and not held up and this can bear well with him at Chepstow, where prominently ridden horses can stay there.
I am glad Native River and Elegant Escape stayed in to keep the weights down, otherwise Miss Lucinda Russell charge may of carried more weight than 10-10.
MIGHTY THUNDER has a decent weight, Derek Fox riding well and the horse seems sound and ready to deliver a telling run.
His pedigree indicates soft ground is within his stamina strengths with his sire German bred Malinas and dam sire Turtle Island,
14/1 looks great to play at and fingers cross rewarding with a big run, good luck all with selections.
I do not understand why this is, as any other race on any day, they will give lengths away or go walk forward and the starter lets the flag down with the field a good way back from the start.
Jockeys should be reprimanded and starter told to get them in order and go right back and not take a turn.
My selection likes to prominent and with all the scrimmaging, he lost that chance and never gave a good account.
Hope the Grand National start does not turn into a farce with the start.
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