Grand National Trends/Stats

miinnehoma 2
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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:00 pm

I see tiger roll and potters corner are down for the glenfarclas Xcountry on Friday.. should be a cracker.

kj 23
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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby kj 23 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:08 pm

Hey Miine, what did you make of that then? alot to digest.
Tiger sweated up, was never going with fluency, is he just hard to get fit now he's 10 or has he had enough? there's the mileage too.
He messed up the bank which isn't him, hopefully its only way is up and fitness will bring him on still. He owes us nothing that said.
Easysland I don't believe has ever jumped the canal turn well, indeed as Ruby said today the jockey did everything great last time in terms of negotiating the course (like a racing driver) made up alot of ground this time too, but some poor jumps and alot of weight.
Potters corner had schooling over obstacles recently, so that was a bonus today, but nothing can prepare you for this race like a race here, he got into it late on and now has it confirmed as pre GN target in March. A good run and a good plan, getting kind of popular this highly dismissed race :cool:
God knows how a previous winner Kingswell Theatre could be 50-1 (returned 22s) as only one of 3 previous runners, let alone a previous winner! so was the effect of ignoring Easyslands potential jumping faults and pre race unconfident noises coming from Elliot re Tiger fitness.
Hope you threw him a few biscuits.

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby Hello Bud » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:49 am

Hi all,

Interesting to hear Mr Powell after the race at Ascot yesterday.... The Conditional will still win the G.N. thoughts please, likes the way MM won, any love for Cloth Cap? Good to see you are both contributing on here, when does the 'early thoughts' page start kicking into gear?

Enjoy your G & T over Xmas KJ, all the best to you both,

Hello Bud ( Major Attraction)

kj 23
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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby kj 23 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:13 pm

Hello Major :wink: nice to have you back,
You'll be pleased to hear I found a reasonably priced good gin here in France, made by Japanese guys, reliable artisans :win:
having it with these pink peppercorns made by my peruvian peeper tree, little floating branch adds to the japanese style. Anyway I digress...
Nice touch remembering my fav tipple, just bought a bottle actually,...cheers.
Mike is kindly keeping our 'site beyond site' going, he puts all the new links up on original GN bloggers welcome page
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=67352
Current discussion thread is below, analysis and debate for the big one has started up for 2021, so see you there
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=69230&start=228

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby Hello Bud » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Hi KJ, thanks for the info, I have followed the links and bookmarked the pages... looks like I have a lot of Christmas reading to catch up on,

Merry Christmas,

Kind regards

HB

miinnehoma 2
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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:38 pm

On weights day...
2020 Tiger was on OR170 which ment the magic wt of 10.6 was OR152.
2019 Bristol had OR168 so 10.6 was OR150.
Winner for the last 50 yrs has been in the top 60 on wts day.
2020 top 60 range was 170 - 147.
2019 the range was 168 - 145.

48/50 winners were in the top half of the entries on wts day.
2020 would have been from 148 up.
2019 was 146 up.

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:24 pm

We know that 29/30 GN winners had at least one top 3 place in one of their preps.
The odd one out was A.E. but he did manage a top 4 place.
Using the top 4 angle knocks out a few obvious ones like -

Ballyoptic
Anibale Fly
Beware The Bear
OK Coral
Jett

Using the Top 3 next only knocks out a few more so we need a new angle.

So, if we look only at the last 13 GN winners you will notice that 12/13 had run extremely well in at least 2 of their preps with again A.E. the odd one out.
They had 2x1st, or 1st&2nd, or 2x2nds but in D.P.I. case his best was a 2nd and 3rd.
To keep it tight I'll leave out D.P.I and stick with 1st & 2nd only which 11 of these 13 winners had.

TR. -- 411
TR. -- 2P51
OFA. - 151
RTW. - 32254
M.C. – 1116
PDR. – 5F2713
A.E. – P45F5
N.C. – P422
BB. -– 112
DPI. – 423P
M.M. – 218278
COD. – 0P21
S.B. – 38242

So we are looking for 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nds or a 1st & 2nd in at least 2 preps.

Using this on the current top 50 (Secret Reprieve) leaves us with 14 -
(preps from Sept) -

Bristol De Mai
The Storyteller
Yala Enki
Burrows Saint
Magic Of Light
Acapella Bourgeois
Shattered Love
Milan Native
Cloth Cap
Cabaret Queen
Canelo
Minella Times
Ami Desbois
Secret Reprieve

Not so good for 2 of my top 5.
Potters & Any Second Now.

There's loads of stats we can use to narrow down these 14 but CMP leaves us with 7.

Bristol De Mai
Burrows Saint
Acapella Bourgeois
Cloth Cap

Ami Desbois
Cabaret Queen
Minella Times

Ami Desbois - I think not. RPR147 > GNOR145 = 2.

Cabaret Queen - I think not. RPR149 > GNOR148 = 1.

Minella Times - harder to call but I think next yr would be better.

Has only won 2 chases @ 2m4f & 2m6f.
Has only 2 runs @ 3m - normal 6+ for GN winner.
Has only 3 Life wins - normal 4+ for GN winner (only 2/20 had the min 4).

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby The Snail » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:39 am

Not so much a bona fide trend, more a quirk based on the size of the field but until the Tiger came along, since 1999 only Leighton Aspell and Ruby Walsh were multiple winning jockeys. Even including Tiger 18 jockeys on 21 years is quite a spread! When you have 40 runners or more i guess its probably expected but i do like to have at least one on my side with a jockey that hadn't won the race before!

Again, excluding the Tiger, Trainers is an even better as in twenty five years only Twiston Davies managed to win 2. I think this is a more baffling stat with the relative powers of the like of Mullins, Nicholls etc. So I also like one from a trainer yet to win it!

Elliott comes mob handed every year it seems now so he may propser more frequently but I guess the Tiger was such a superstar and a natural at these fences that will either be an memorable blip in the above trends or the start of a Elliott domination!!

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:01 pm

Just for future ref.

Minella Times -

No wins at 3m+
No top 3 @ 28f+
Just 2 chase wins @ 2m4f & 2m6f.
Only 2 runs @ 3m - 30/30 had 6+ for GN winner.
Only 3 Life wins - 30/30 had 4+ for GN winner (only 2/30 had the min 4).

All winners had a top 3 @ 28f+ or won @ 26f or had been 2nd over the GN fences.

The last GN winner not to have won @ 3m was I think Gay Trip in 1970.
So a 50 yr stat busted or maybe just a blip.
At least the CMP did the business again.

35/58 --- 122 Minella Times 62 days, 8yr, 10.03, OR146/95/176
16/30 - 4764U Balko Des Flos 24 days, 10yr, 10.09, OR152/103/172
15/29 -- 99P1 Any Second Now 28 days, 9yr, 10.09, OR152/160/179
07/15 --- 262 Burrows Saint 42 days, 8yr, 10.13, OR156/102/163

Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.50 Triads = 11-18-20
Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.65 Triads = 13-19-19
Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-18-18
Speed = 7 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 13-16-20


RPR151 > GNOR146 = 5
RPR166 > GNOR152 = 14
RPR160 > GNOR152 - 8
RPR160 > GNOR156 = 4

+9 stat

1 chase ago 151 - 140 = 11
16 chases ago 169 -157 = 12
1 chase ago 160 - 151 = 9
4 chases ago 160 - 144 = 16

Also, Balko Des Flow had only won @ 2m7f & no top 3 @ 28f+.

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:17 pm

The Wild Risk connection -

1 Minellà Times - Yes, on Mum's side.
2 Balko Des Flow - Yes, on Dad's side.
3 Any Second Now - No
4 Burrow's Saint - No
5 Farclas - Yes, on both sides. (Only 7 yrs old).
6 Blaklion - Yes, on Dad's side.

Also, Potters - No and Acapella - No.

The last 9 GN winners had Wild Risk on the Mum's side.
Some winners had WR on both sides.

This year 24 of the 40 runners had a touch of Wild Risk.
And 17 of the 40 had the correct CMP.

So, if we combine correct CMP and WR on mum's side we are left with 7 runners.

Class Conti - 15th.
Cloth Cap - PU.
Definitely Red - PU.
Farclas - 5th.
Minellà Times - 1st.
The Long Mile - PU.
Tout EST Permis - PU.

I was hoping that the winner might be a blip re- no win @ 3 Mls (50 yr stat).
But with Balko Des Flow being 2nd makes you wonder is this a new trend with the new fences and the shorter distance.

From just before 2 out one would have thought that an Irish Nat. winner and a Kim Muir winner would be odds on to outstay the other 2.

Ted must be gutted, it should have been ASN national but there you go, you need luck in running.

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby Grittar82 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:13 pm

When I joined this forum, "Old Grand National Blog " one thing talked about was Presenting as a sire of stayers. Ballabriggs was still to win back then, but I felt that the was nothing in theory to stop him. Presenting had Busted in his pedigree and Busted had produce a few winners himself. Well look further back into Busted pedigree and you're find Wild Risk.
Formerly known as Lucky Vane on Grand National Blog

Remember never assume anything because Assume makes an Ass out of U and Me.

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Re: Grand National Trends/Stats

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:00 pm

Balklion was the last one to officially make the top 40 this year. On weights day he was no 61 but Double Shuffle no 62 had already made the cut.
Most years your safe up to the early 70's, although the year Rule the World won no 59 was the last one in.
The winner Minella Times was no 58 of the 105 entries on weights day which meant he was in the bottom half of the list. The winner for the last 49 yrs has been in the top half of the list 47 times. Only Aurora's Encore and Rustic we think were the exception but now joined by Minella Times ( 47/50 ).

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