Eurovision Song Contest 2014 - discussion thread.

Systemsman
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2015

Postby Systemsman » Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:58 pm

Ok somewhat of a surprise winner in 2014 - very much to do with support for Gay rights and the position Russia took on this. Won a bit (last minute bet) but that did not cover the overall investment.

Every few years you will get a winner thats hard to predict so we need to look out for that "something different" that also very very good.

I am still very confident that most years we can find the winner and will do in 2015. One thing is for sure the bookies are getting meaner every year and that makes our job that much harder - but no worries team will reassemble on Jan 1st 2015 to find that winner.

I still like my short list for 2015 (Ukraine say they wont enter but we are not 100% sure yet).
Sweden
Armenia
The Netherlands
Denmark
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Norway
Russia
Serbia
Italy

meldettori
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Postby meldettori » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:27 am

This pattern seems to be common with the winners in Eurovision, something to take into consideration: barefoot singers like Sandie Shaw, Emelie De Forest, Loreen, Dima Bilan all won. Anyone else fitting this pattern through the years?

Also the Herreys won with special golden shoes. They were singing about going higher and higher I think, much like Loreen, yet in different footwear.

It's like a close to the nature singers are pretty high on the list.

Shrews
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Postby Shrews » Sat May 23, 2015 1:36 pm

2014 - Austria, Netherlands, Sweden, Armenia, Hungary
2013 - Denmark, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Norway, Russia
2012 - Sweden, Russia, Serbia, Azerbaijan, Albania
2011 - Azerbaijan, Italy, Sweden, Ukraine, Denmark
2010 - Germany, Turkey, Romania, Denmark, Azerbaijan

Using my own 10,7,6,2,1 points system here are the scores:

Sweden 22
Azerbaijan 20
Denmark 13
Austria 10
Germany 10
Russia 8
Ukraine 8
Italy 7
Netherlands 7
Turkey 7
Romania 6
Serbia 6
Armenia 2
Norway 2
Albania 1
Hungary 1

The following draw numbers have been most successful over the last 5 years:

2014 - 11, 24, 13, 7, 21
2013 - 18, 20, 22, 24, 10
2012 - 17, 6, 24, 13, 3
2011 - 19, 12, 7, 23, 3
2010 - 22, 14, 19, 25, 1

No winning song has been drawn less than 11, with 4 out 5 being from draws 17-22.

Only 2 from 15 have been drawn less than 12 and 2 from 15 above 22 (with both those 2 being 24)

So putting those together we have:

Azerbaijan (20) drawn 24
Germany (10) drawn 17

Each Way value on:

Azerbaijan at 66/1 (125 Betfair)
Germany at 200/1 (949 Betfair)

Shrews
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Postby Shrews » Sat May 23, 2015 1:44 pm

20:00 Eurovision Song Contest 2015 25 EW Azerbaijan (Win Contest) 66/1 bet365


20:00 Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Top 10 Finish 50 Win Germany (Win Contest) 9/1 bet365


20:00 Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Top 4 Finish 50 Win Germany (Win Contest) 66/1

botev1921
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Postby botev1921 » Sat May 23, 2015 2:15 pm

Shrews, if this thing actually delivers given how bad Azerbaijan sounded in the semi-final and how terribly mediocre Germany is, you will be my stats hero...not that I will ever risk any cash on those two. I would have higher hopes on Azerbaijan top 10 as I love the studio version of the song, but to me numerology will never be a reason to place any bet on any market.

Shrews
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Postby Shrews » Sat May 23, 2015 2:20 pm

Shrews, if this thing actually delivers given how bad Azerbaijan sounded in the semi-final and how terribly mediocre Germany is, you will be my stats hero...not that I will ever risk any cash on those two. I would have higher hopes on Azerbaijan top 10 as I love the studio version of the song, but to me numerology will never be a reason to place any bet on any market.
I know but I can't bear to listen to the entries, they make my ears bleed :D


I put the selections on the wrong thread, they are now also on the other one.

This is the 2014 thread

Shrews
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Postby Shrews » Sat May 23, 2015 2:21 pm

This is the 2014 thread

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