Eurovision Song Contest 2014 - discussion thread.

willieboy
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Postby willieboy » Mon May 12, 2014 11:56 am

In the cold light of dawn....and a week on bread and jam....lets see if any sense can be made of it.
The song (Austria) was crap (imo) and would have sunk without trace if sang by anyone else.
It was a poor year and I thought the best were Sweden and Armenia.
It was (is) important to see what the Bookies are doing just after the semi-finals...and because the Armenia singer wasn`t a singer (!)..they knew it had very little chance of winning.
Sweden was head-scratching as to why it had done so well in the youtube results and not in the actual final. Still don`t know.
But the Bookies got it right.!!

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Postby markdowd » Mon May 12, 2014 12:57 pm

I'm not a Swede and it was far from my fave song, but I really must challenge the idea it was a "fan wank".....218 points is a very respectable score and it scored well among both jurors and televote. In the end, it lacked that final special edge....

as for the winning song, yes if sung by Sanna or Ruth Lorenzo, it may have made top 5/6, but then the lyrics went perfectly with Conchita's "story", which emoted people and got them to vote for her.....people like a narrative!!

Also, she sang it EXCEPTIONALLY well and was the best artiste on the night...

I will be ignoring OGAE in 2015 for sure.

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Postby primitiverising » Mon May 12, 2014 2:48 pm

Sanna was a massive fan wank because OGAE fans knew all about her narrative of trying for so many years to represent Sweden and got behind her by voting for Sweden in polls.

What you saw on stage was a very polished Swedish song - polished in a way only Swedish sound engineers could achieve. She had 5 backing singers singing the song for her. It was a clever deception because the average tv viewer/jury member would not have been able to see this.

When she actually sang unassisted, her vocal was ropey but most of the time she was cleverly concealed. During the song, watch her move the microphone away from her mouth when she is really emoting, & listen to the powerful sound produced. There were times when you could see she wasn't even in synch with the backing singers. It was the equivalent of having a backing track.

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Postby markdowd » Mon May 12, 2014 2:55 pm

I heard her with Paddy O Connell on BBC radio giving an unaccompanied version for a minute or two...no backing track, no other singers and she sounded clear, focussed and very on the ball.....

why do people have it in for this woman? Maybe she needs a beard..??

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Update

Postby Systemsman » Mon May 12, 2014 5:33 pm

"It was (is) important to see what the Bookies are doing just after the semi-finals..."

Good solid advise for all future years. the problem may turn out to be the price at that stage being very low. Certainly the bookies top 3 on final day tends to include the winner. So how do we identify the winner early for a reasonable price - and there lies the rub. Going on early is always going to involve some risk and that was certainly true this year with so many changes in Fav. At one point it did look like Armenia had an outstanding song (but some of us mentioned the problem of the very slow start) but I did warn even then that you needed to postpone a verdict until you could hear it live and that applies to all songs in all years.

RE: OGAE I think to be fair to the whole Team no one ever suggested you really on OGAE - it was posted up out of interest and gives a general overview of what songs young ESC music fans (but not the public) find interesting - and that's all - but don't dismiss it entirely - its one small resource among many that need sorting and considering in total.

Don't care what any of the Austria fans think, for me Sweden was by far the best song on the night so we will just have to agree to differ on this. What I find worrying and we need to take into account is what I detect as an anti Sweden trend in some ESC quarters (commentators/reporters) - I think there is some jealousy of the Swedish song tradition and their great ESC festival each year and I do detect some attempt to in voting to pull their vote down and not just this year so bear that in mind in future years. Perhaps all female Swedish singers need to wear beards!

So it was a poor year but there will be good ones and one where we do find the winner early. Will look a little more deeper over the next two weeks and report back sometime.

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Postby Donal Eurovision » Mon May 12, 2014 6:26 pm

Systemsman you are very right in saying that its important to get on early. I had 50euros on Austria at 50/1 from a very early stage and that single bet just about got me out of a lot of trouble on the night. 50/1 buys a whole lot of forgiveness! It was a breakeven night for me with a lot of lessons learnt.

Next year I'm going to cover 5 or 6 countries that I think can do it at a very early stage without reference to bookies odds or fan polls. I will have to be prepared to take the hit and will do so because I intend to go heavier on an entry that that I'm really keen on.

I'm actually very annoyed with myself that I doubted Austrias ability to win. There has been a precedent for this kind of entry winning with Dana International and it had 2,000,000 youtube views. I would not have berated myself so much if the Netherlands won because I'd never, ever have preempted its support.

We have a serious problem with identifying a performer who can 'bring it' on the night like Conchita.... this cannot be achieved by watching a video clip. The only way around this is to attend rehearsals or indeed some of the pre-Eurovision parties. Remember there were clues to be heard after Aram sang in one of these shows. I commented on this on this thread and it was proved on the night that he could not sing in a low register which was in fact 2 minutes of his song.

At the semi final stage next year I will most certainly have oddschecker at the ready to catch a serious market movement. The Netherlands dropped to 20/1 after their semi and were 10/1 the next morning with a complete collapse in the odds later on that day. You have to be prepared to go early, the price will not wait for you.

Finally I notice that the major tipsters still didn't really fancy Austrias chances after the semi-finals ... Hmmmmmmmm!

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Postby garc » Mon May 12, 2014 8:58 pm

between my own bets and some money I put down for friends I made a nice 4 figure sum on Austria so my best ever Eurovision. whatever about the song itself the performance on both nights was outstanding and that's what got the votes. plus of course the beard helped a bit!
for next year its a case of looking for the unusual in any way ie the singer/staging/costumes etc . also the song needs to be a catch all European classic or pop type song. I also lost some money on win bets on Norway and Sweden after reading too much on here and not making up my own mind, lesson learned.

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Postby scoobydoo68 » Tue May 13, 2014 12:17 am

systemsman - I don't think this thread was a failure at all, we just got unlucky by an act that was actually made fun of during auditions but won the hearts of millions, I have seen many weird acts win over the years but this one was different, it was a statement, a pro gay message, a message that it's ok to be who you want to be and Europe accepted it.
I got lucky by having a feeling Austria might get big after hearing a conversation on the radio and listening to people calling the show offering support for the act otherwise I would have lost my ass on Sweden too.
Brush it off mate, nobody can win every year, over the last few years your threads on eurovision have brought many of us profit so don't be disheartened, I look forward to seeing you here for next year's event :win:

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Postby scoobydoo68 » Tue May 13, 2014 12:24 am

Usually I set £500 aside to bet on eurovision, this year I bet £200 for the first time ever not having my whole bank on the event, this year was poor for us gamblers, unlike other years the favourites were weak, the bookies took their chance and beat us unfortunately.

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Postby Donal Eurovision » Tue May 13, 2014 8:07 am

Garc,
I'd loved to have heard your arguement for an Austrian win. Thats exactly what I was looking for as I knew the fav's were not that strong.

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Postby garc » Tue May 13, 2014 6:52 pm

Donal, part of my post from the 7th of may and from the 8th:

re that performace from Austria. yup very confident now with my top 10 and 5 place for it. not my sort of thing but that was an amazing performance. Norway not 2 bad but not the winner I think. nice visuals on the Polish entry Very Happy
post on the 10th

Austria big winner fr me have them fr top 10 and top 5 at abt 3/1 and 5/1. When I backed dem I told my wife who then backed them 40/1 ew. Why the hell I didnt do same I dont know. Did bak them a week ago @ 25/1. Shuldnt be greedy I guess. Also hav sweden win only 3/1. Lost moey on Albania fr top 10. Best of luck all
as you can see I wasn't 100% behind it and didn't trust my own judgement and left my ew bet late. had seen the potential and had been raving on about it with friends and family who made nice money from it. wife was on at 40/1!! my own fault I didn't get in heavy and I was probably influenced by what I was reading on here.
that's not to say I don't appreciate all the work all you guys/galls have done. if it wasn't for people like systemsman and others I would not have been making money on Eurovision for 4 years in row as I would never have thought of Eurovision as a betting opportunity until I started checking in here.
ps: I have the post Eurovision betting blues and need something to get stuck into. any other possible betting opportunities?

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Postby adamross » Tue May 13, 2014 7:08 pm

Guys - I have just checked my Betfred account and have found a free bet in there in respect of the amount I was able to place on the Netherlands to win.
There was an offer of money back if your selection came second (which I hadn't noticed when placing my bet).
Therefore if you backed the Netherlands online to win with Mr Done, it is worth checking your account.

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