Eurovision Song Contest 2012

Gizmogirl
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Postby Gizmogirl » Tue May 29, 2012 10:13 pm

Very much agree with that voting algorithm point, Systemsman. It doesn't point to the win, I think, but definitely to a good result. At the time, people were debating whether the middle strong Eastern bloc meant that Serbia were going to lead it with Sweden making a late run, and whether she was going to get there. Of course, this was blown out of the water very early on into the voting. It is a really good top 2/ top 3 indicator.

I think anyone's dangerous if they get it right. Not sure if I would bestow upon Italy any special danger - I think they disappointed this year. But If I had to call a list of countries right now for a top 10, Italy would be there.

Like you, I do think initially in terms of balance, so Eastern Europe balancing it out would be a factor, as would a first time host.

14. Spain: look to be friendless and unable to win. Would like to see the jury vote on this. Absolutely superb performance with many commentators saying they should have done much better than 10th. I had them for the top 10, but would think very carefully about anything stronger.

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Tue May 29, 2012 10:25 pm

I have had a look back through this thread a just wondered if anyone looks into Countries who constantly vote for others, like Romania & Moldova etc etc.

Also, recent winners of the competition. For example since the year 2000 only 1 of the 13 winners have come from Western Europe. With 4 Scandinavian Wins, 2 Baltic Wins, 2 Southern Europe Wins, 4 Eastern European Wins & 1 Western European Win. Also worth noting is that 4 of the last 9 winners have been Countries with Eastern European influence.

I find this interesting and I am going to collate a statistical spreadsheet for the Eurovision, to mirror the ones I already have for BGT, X-Factor and other competitions like these.

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Postby Gizmogirl » Tue May 29, 2012 10:33 pm

There is something on Wikipedia about voting blocs/trends. It's worth calculating the bloc head start for each country. I think it's of great value for placings and top 10.

No doubt, anyone reading the UK post-Eurovision coverage and the comments attached thereto from the Great British Public is as disgusted as I am. There's blind patriotism and, obviously, deaf patriotism too.

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Postby cbris78 » Tue May 29, 2012 11:57 pm

Liverpool - http://www.escstats.com/ click on the 'analysis' tab and then you can pick a country and see the top 10 countries they give points to and the top 10 they receive points from, good starting point.

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Update

Postby Systemsman » Thu May 31, 2012 9:58 am

I think we can close this thred when we have the brakedown of the jury/voting figures but so far they have not been released (strange). Cyprus are not happy with the vote and asked for the figures after the result was given. Will we get the brakedown this year?

Would love to know how well Russia did in the public vote and how did Albania do so well?

Anyway if we dont have them by Monday, and i am sure we would like to have short discussion on them, we will close the thred on Monday anyway and restart on Jan 1st 2013 unless evryone disagrees.

Gizmogirl
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Postby Gizmogirl » Thu May 31, 2012 10:00 am

Yes, this vote breakdown could take some time.

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Postby tts272 » Thu May 31, 2012 2:13 pm

Something weird going on with the voting sysyem. who would have believed that Romania, Greece, Ukraine, Cyprus would be out of top 10 and maybe top15?

Italy doesn't deserve the 9th place. I can understand Germany and Spain sharing 8th and 10th but my mind doesn't get how Albania and Estonia have taken 5th and 6th.

Albania's song is nothing than boring, you just hear a screaming voice. although wiwibloggs' juries anticipated a second place for Albania it still looks weird to me. :no:

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Postby Leaguesaint » Thu May 31, 2012 4:23 pm

Got to disagree about Albania. Not my type of music but it was a great performance and very different to anything else. I think that was the key to its success rather than dodgy voting.

Estonia also put in a very good vocal performance on the night which led me to put a few pounds on him just in case.

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OLBG ESC 2012 Poll - how di we do,

Postby Systemsman » Thu May 31, 2012 7:47 pm

Our own OLBG poll - pre rehersal - how did we do in 2012. This was the last figures i can find - the combined view of many of our posters:

1. Sweden 47points WON 1st
2. Italy 43points 9th
3. Serbia 33points 3rd
4. Iceland 23points 20th
5. Germany 20points 8th
6. Spain 12points 10th
7. Denmark 10point 23rd
8. Norway 6points 26th
9. Cyprus 5points 16th
10. Romania 4points 12th
10. Netherlands 4points Not in Final
10. Russia 4points 2nd
13. Slovenia 1point Not in Final
13. Turkey 1point 7th

So 1st and 3rd (in correct order) pre rehersal - not bad at all. If only we had had Russia 2nd instead of Italy - for a full house!

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Polls

Postby Systemsman » Thu May 31, 2012 7:49 pm

Next year i think we need both pre rehersal and post rehersal OLBG polls as i'am sure Russia this year would have shown up in a post reheral OLBG poll..

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Thu May 31, 2012 7:53 pm

Lol I gave Russia 2 of those 4pts :P

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Postby Gizmogirl » Thu May 31, 2012 10:54 pm

Well, I know it's hindsight, but in a post- rehearsal poll I would have dumped Denmark down.

I think there's nothing wrong with the voting, just that for the juries, the emphasis is on vocals and artistic credibility. The problem is to sort out what we think is artistically credible.

I know it's a bit of an ask, but maybe we could have a stab at calling the top 10? My reasoning is that the top 10 market seems to be a good play. Or we just go top 4. I'm thinking the poll should match the markets available?

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