Eurovision Song Contest 2012

Systemsman
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Thank you

Postby Systemsman » Mon May 28, 2012 9:38 am

There will be a few update posts this week then we will close for 2012. The new 2013 thred will open on Jan 1st 2013! (it never too early).

Just to say a big thank you to all who took part. viewed and contributed. We did not always agree with each other but these different opinions are very important so that we can look at the situation from all angles. It looks like a few people did make a profit this year especiely form Serbia Each Way at 14/1 or better which most of the team supported a sthe ebst EW bet.

I'am sory if my opinions were a bit strong at times but thats the way i invest but i can honestly say that i only ever wanted you all to win this year and to find that early price (Sweden was only evr 6/1 or worse).

It always seems easy after the event but to be honest it was quite hard for us all due to those Russian grannies. They were this years France but were in fact a danger as they cane 2nd. Without the juries and if they had got a late draw anything was possible. Once agin some countries failed to sparkle on stage compared to the early relese Iceland was prime example as was Norway (who deserved a better position). Just how do Albania do so well - i hated every minute of it but that was like last years Italy.

Hope you all join the Team in 2013.

Systemsman
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2013

Postby Systemsman » Mon May 28, 2012 10:04 am

Just a little bit of fun at this stage.

How to find the winner in 2013?

"Look at the top four from last three years (but discard last years winner) and note any that are very good and supported in a number of ESc polls + bookies + news etc."

Just to be safe we will include the last four years:

From th information below (at the end of this post) the following should be watched next year (we need bookies/polls news etc to decide who looks good).

Sweden - possible double but only if very very outsanding.
Serbia very dangerous if in Englsih and good. Last won in 2007.
Italy - probably the best chance for a West Euopean country in 2013.
Russia - they want to win again! Last win was 2008. A good song and they will be dangerous again.
Turkey - always dangerous when they do have a good song.
Albania - if they could come up with something nice (!) and special.
Estonia- scored well this year and got it wrong in 2011 with what was good song.

(I am leaving Azerbaijan out at this stage as they won on 2011 and came
came 4th this year)


2012
1. Sweden - discard, but as they also came 3rd in 211 we will use them again.
2. Russia
3. Serbia
4. Azerbaijan (but won last year)

2011
1. Azerbaijan -
2. Italy -
3. Sweden - (won in 2012!)
4. Ukraine -

2010
1. Germany -
2. Turkey -
3. Romania -
4. Denmark -


2009
1. Norway -
2. Iceland -
3. Azerbaijan (won in 2011!!)
4. Turkey -

Systemsman
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2013

Postby Systemsman » Mon May 28, 2012 10:09 am

2013 - a bit more.

These look the hottest at this stage but a lot can change between now and next year.

Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Italy
Estonia


A nice combination of East European and West European but i think the "East European Block Vote" will want it back next year.

Any other short lists for 2013 from the Team?

Leaguesaint
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Postby Leaguesaint » Mon May 28, 2012 3:02 pm

Although I think past form does have some influence, in the end its got to be a good song to get the overall support. Its rare a bad song wins.

It would be useful to look into the average effect over the last 4 or 5 years of neighbour voting as this will give some indication of the head start some countries get over others. There'll be a lot of information to look through to work that out though. This combined with first opinions of the songs and looking at the history of the singers and composers both in terms of the contest and success in other European countries will help to give us a little head start over the rest.

Other than the first part of that though there's not a lot can be done for 6 or 7 months.

robotrax
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Postby robotrax » Tue May 29, 2012 11:10 am

For any patriotic followers out there here are some sobering facts.

1)UK not won since 1997, prior to that it was 1981 and Bucks Fizz.

2)In the last 10 years UK has finished 19th or worse 7 times. (coming stone cold last 3 times)

3)The UK is essentialy "friendless" around europe. This has not always been the case and you can blame our involvement in certain conflicts and our lack of participation in a certain currency for our fall from grace.

Consider also that there are now perhaps twice as many countries involved as there were in 1981 when BF won with 136 points!

4)In addition i don't think many in Euroland have forgiven us for our entry in 2003 - the glory that was "Jemini" ( a golden moment in our history and well worth a look on Youtube for those who missed it.)

5)It would appear that Eurovision is taken very seriously in many countries around Europe whereas in the UK it has more of a joke status --
consider some of the acts sent to represent in the last 20 years --

Scooch/Sonia/Daz Simpson/Andy Abraham/and a whole host of other names that i never heard of before or since. (fair play to Sonia despite a glorious lack of talent managed to come 2nd.)

Because we are automatic qualifiers are we really trying?

No matter who the UK put up next year they will be near the head of the betting - the obvious tip is next year to take them on.

Can the UK win? No , Not a prayer.

Systemsman
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Update

Postby Systemsman » Tue May 29, 2012 11:17 am

This look an interesting bet:

Location of ESc 2013:

Stockholm (8/15), Goteborg (11/4), Malmo (11/2), Any other

Surely Stockholm - airport/hotels etc etc. 8/15 not so bad.

Stll not found the brakedown of jury and public vote for this year so if anyone finds it (is anyone still out there?) please post it up. I always like to do an inquest on the result wether i win or lose.

It certianly looks like there is still a major East European block vote in operation which we need to atke into account next year.

I have heard so much moaning about the UK result in the press. When will they get it into their head that if you send rubbish you will get a rubbish result. In the last three years two West European countries have won because they were oustanding and able to by pass the East European block vote. Blue for the UK last year was our best song for years and did quiet well (disproving this years histerical press reports) but they were about two/three years past their best (i think they had already retired as a group) somewhat rusty as regards "live" performance and unable to reproduce that studio sound on stage. The "Hump" this year was 40 years past his best!!!! - when will the BBC learn!

cbris78
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Postby cbris78 » Tue May 29, 2012 11:22 am

Can the UK win? No , Not a prayer.
Don't really agree with that under the 50/50 system, in fairness I've only followed it the last 4 years as outside of the betting aspect I have zero interest in it but from what I've seen if we send a decent song/act we can still do well. Jade Ewan came 5th in 2009 and Blue came 5th in the public vote in 2011, they just tanked with the juries. It's just outside a few people no one really cares.

Systemsman
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UK in ESC

Postby Systemsman » Tue May 29, 2012 11:30 am

robotrax - intersting comments.

The only hope for the UK is to have an "open" contest with premininary rounds and then a TV semi and final (it would be vey populer, so amazed BBC dont jump on board). Now and this is the important bit we need both a public vote (could be done by regions to a make it interesting or not) and a jury vote (music experts) from as many Euro countries as possible as well as a UK jury vote. The vote should be split 50/50 pubic/juries just like the ESC (i dont trust the public on their own). This would therefore follow th same selection pattern as Sweden who use European wide juries vote as well as a public vote. This would encourage some of the better Voice/X factor/BGT and other professionals to enter the contest along with some origional song writers if a big price for the winning UK entry was on offer. We wouldnt always get it right but there is a chance (rather than no chance) we might find a good one now and again and it would put creditability back into the UK entry and we would once agin start to take th ESC seriously as do most other countries.

Anyone know anyone at the BBC?

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Postby Gizmogirl » Tue May 29, 2012 11:51 am

I can't think in terms of countries as we don't know the songs, but I'm thinking about observations. I'm not bold enough to call them trends, but they are things to think about for next year. Getting the jury splits will be very interesting. Sometimes there are conflicting factors, so it's a matter of weighing these up as always.

1. The jury looks to be latching on to serious artistry. This means that traditional la la Europop is out - Greece, Cyprus, Norway-type songs will be getting no love from the jury. Vocal and staging artistry is at a premium. Just remember Albania.

1a Jury also looking for difference, so songs which are pedestrian retro/ trad aren't looked on too kindly (Iceland - ouch, Demark pretty derivative).

2. Staging. Well, hated the Loreen dancing, but it had artistic pretensions. Turkey spot on with the memorable man-ship. Moldova had it's quirky routine. I think Italy got it wrong by being too cool for itself and Zilli not doing the sell.

3. Albania ate dangerous and I'll avoid backing against them (still smarting over Albania NQ in SF1)

4. The draw is of importance, as is the break, and the context. Lithuania 3rd in the pimp slot in SF2. Norway going just before the break with the host nation after the break. Serbia landing a draw at the end surrounded by up-tempo numbers. I'm surprised that Germany finished ahead of Spain, but I think the positioning helped neither of them.

5. Repeating formulas. Bad news. Call it a day Jedward.

6. Voting blocs. I don't think these determine the winner, but I reckon they might help placings. I remember reading about Serbia's bloc head start on points, so lumped on for a place.

7. Diaspora. Turkey's got a big diaspora, which needs taking into account when you're thinking about top 10 action especially.

8. The market - big drifters after the semis were noticeable. I have read that people think there may have been a leak. Something to be aware of. Probably looking at drifters more than anything going short (Cyprus).

9. This depends upon song and performer, but opposing the UK merits serious consideration.

10. Romania seem to be serial disappointers, and possibly Iceland.

11. Bet timing. All bets for the grand final on a speculative basis until draw. A small window of opportunity just after a country makes its draw post semis ( unless you are focussing on host/ big 5)

Are there any other observations/factors for next year?
Last edited by Gizmogirl on Tue May 29, 2012 12:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

blondul
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Postby blondul » Tue May 29, 2012 12:06 pm

i love the song of the winner eurovison 2012 !!!

Gizmogirl
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Postby Gizmogirl » Tue May 29, 2012 12:09 pm

12. Polls. I keep an eye on them as I don't like discounting any source of information. But there are some bad ones out there which are taken over by blind fandom.

Systemsman
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2013

Postby Systemsman » Tue May 29, 2012 3:57 pm

Excellent points Gizmogirl most of which i garre with. I certainly think Italy are dangerous with a good song and stage show (which they got wrong this year) - they have a lot of friends as do Russia when they get it right.

Now my main tip from 2012 to use in 2013 is that there is a small window of opportunity - perhaps 30mins after they declare the voting order for the final (this is after the jury have voted at the final jury performance on the Friday). I did point out that if Sweden and the Scandinavian states were voting in the 2nd half it indecated a good result for Sweden as they use a computer programme designed not to show the winner on final night any earlier than is possible. Using this info you may be able to sneek a price from the bookies before they nose dive so long as its a possible clear result for the winner rather than a close one between say four countries.

So Western Europe have won 2 from the last 3 so just cant help thinking its Eastern Euope next year- Russia/Albania/Estonia/Serbia with a good song and show that is.

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