Eurovision Song Contest 2011

willieboy
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Postby willieboy » Sun May 15, 2011 8:50 am

Happy that I went with Azerbaijaan from the start....got 10/1 then (tipped 24th March here) and topped up as soon as the draw was announced ....but the one thing that I will remember from this year is the way the bookies went with France. Was it genuine? France ticked all the WRONG boxes all the way....why did the odds shorten all the time to one of the hottest favs in years?
Also...why did the polls get it so wrong?
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Postby MrFizz » Sun May 15, 2011 8:55 am

Big Polveir drove the Azerbaijan bandwagon from an early stage - I hitched a ride and only really saw them as outright winners in the last few days when likely challengers faded, largely due to the draw. I've re-read some posts and there were reservations about Azer actually winning, but it was fairly clear that they were reliable and a safe bet to do well...so yes Big Polveir there was a feeling that Azerbaijan won 'by default.' No-one really excelled on the night, unlike Norway (2009) and Germany (2010). Manchester United did a similar thing in the Premier League this season - no-one properly challenged so 'good' was enough to win rather than 'very good' or 'excellent.' Well done BP for consistently highlighting the merits of Azerbaijan and to several others including Willieboy who also identified the entry's strengths!

Here's what I posted on May 4. You'll see I was right AND wrong...
The Eurovision power base has arguably shifted eastwards over the last decade - in fact in 2007 hardly a vote was cast for any country west of Vienna! I'm exaggerating. A bit. Eastern Europe, however, could hit back big time this year after success for Norway (2009) and Germany (2010) and also France and the UK being touted as pre-contest favourites. Georgia has top 10 potential this year (a late draw and juxtaposition with some dreary ballads may even give it top 5 potential...if it qualifies, of course) but I think it will be Azerbaijan who will lead the assault from the east.

Running Scared by Ell/Nikki is a sweet, simple, catchy love song which should be equally liked by juries and televoters. Simplicity is often key to success amid the nerve-jangling chaos of a live show beamed to 125m TV viewers. There's not much that can go wrong this one. (Or is that tempting fate?) Most importantly, the song's appeal is broad, cross-European, and likely to mop up points (maybe not 12s) at every turn potentially putting it in real contention. EW at 10/1 (generally available) for a top 4 place is eye-catching. My view is that one or two entries will, however, keep Azerbaijan from the top of the leaderboard.

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Postby jimny2 » Sun May 15, 2011 10:24 am

Sad night for Eurovision with Azerbaijan winning, they went close last year but probably failed due to the poor draw but no such "problems" this year and all the money they spent over the last few years finally paid off...Maybe money can buy you everything...The huge sums of money Azerbaijan spent on the contest may well be worth it to them but not so sure the EBU and the Eurovision can say they got a good deal out of this.

As for Italy doing so well on their return, call me cynical but doesn't it feel just a little bit "forced" I mean the song was alright but nothing special and I can't remember too many people tipping it as a dark horse but of course having a country like Italy back in the Eurovision fold is extremely important to the EBU as they are one of the Big Five meaning more money...Aah yes back to money again :wink:
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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun May 15, 2011 10:39 am

Great discussion lads, thanks for all the opinions. I am sure there are plenty of lessons to be taken forward into next year, especially paying more attention to draw, less attention to polls (which I knew were always going to be well out), thinking more about the blocs, realising the nature of the volatile exciting voting system.

Personally I found that an easy competition to study and make money from but I will definitely start earlier next year. Was heavily on Azerbaijan and heavily against UK and Ireland and France (annoyingly backed UK to finish top ten as expected them to finish 6-10th but was even weaker on the night, lay of France to win, top 4 and top 10 was very lucrative!). Disappointed Finland didnt appeal to the voters from the start as had them top ten. Georgia also did very well for me. Also surprised Hungary, Finland, Estonia scored so weakly and Italy did so strongly.

I spent the day in the pub sitting (not deliberately!) outside the ladies toilets, placing bets for strangers who were coming over and asking my opinion, made a bit of money for a few!

Anyway thanks to all the guys who made this thread very readable.
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Postby showlad » Sun May 15, 2011 10:49 am

Thanks to all on here :)

Especially Team Leader Systemsman.

Thought last night was the most appalling big step back for the competition. After Norway and Germany we took a HUGE step back to neighbourly voting decding the winner.

Azerbaijan had a sweet, if unremarkable song, sung by one OK and one poorish singer. Acts like Austria who wiped the floor with them were ignored. Is the most forgettable and bland winner I remember. If that had been sung by Portugal or something that would have been lucky to get in the top 10.

Appalling.

Neighbourly voting is back with a vengeance :(

But hey thanks all :) :)

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Review

Postby Systemsman » Sun May 15, 2011 10:52 am

Review:

How did the polls do?

Well the Big Poll had Azerbaijan 3rd (the poll that was done in the last three days but this poll come sout far too late to be useful) so not bad at all and the ESC Stats poll had Azerbaijan joint 2nd (with all factors) so again not bad (and this poll is available early). Oplss do hav ethier place!

Now in normal year I would have Azerbaijan covered as i had the top 5 covered early but Azerbaijan went from one of "the possible" to 3rd Fav in the last week - looks like i invested far too early but in other years this would not have been wrong (or even next year. France caused a lot of problems and a lot of wasted money - most people on her saw it as a false Fav (as i and shwlad did) but it could not be ignored. Top that with the late Irish rush and we had a very difficult late market.

Azrebaijan had a good song - on first hearing it i thought it was good but not oustanding but that stage set was brillient - great lighting. Having backed them big along with Germany in 2010 i wrote them off in favour of Hungary/UK/ France/Estonia etc - big mistake. Both Azerbaijan and Sweden did reproduce their studio sound live in both semi finals and finals - Sweeden would have been a good win for me but it wasnt to be. Azerbaijan are always dangerous with a half decent song any year and with that good draw they were going to do well but my investments were already made.

Looks like East Europe will continue to vote big for anything half decent from East Europe!!

I have no regrets - just not my year (like the year i didnt get Russia) - went on early fro the price - in many years this would work but not this.

Lessons:

Listen to a "live" version of any song not a studio version
Polls are useful - but look at top 4 (not just the Fav)
Late draw is still very important
Stage show important but ability to reproduce song even more so.

I'am not sure i would change anything i done this year as i was after a big early price and it just didnt work out but as i have flagged up Azerbaijan in the past as a major ESC players i think i should have payed a little more attention to them.

Did well:
Azerbaijan - ofcourse
Sweden - as perdicted (suggested it would appeal to young voters) - my best result
Italy - where did they come from?
Ireland - did well for a crap songa and beat UK!

Did bad:
United Kindom - stage set all wrong. Costumes all wrong and song/group dated format it would appear. On the night jsut not good enougth. Plus East Europe marked us down as we were to danger to them winning.
France - a disaster. Bookies led us a merry dance with this one and sowed confusion aplenty.
Hungary - bet song, crap persentation. Kati Wolf was never up to it!
Estonia very poor vocals - never came across at all compared to studio verson.

We live to fight again. 2012 going to nail it!!!!!

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun May 15, 2011 10:54 am

do u think neighbourly voting went away tho really showlad? was it perhaps more that the last coupla winners werent from blocky places?

i think it was a generally weak comp this year, several quite good songs but nothing particularly outstanding. i think thats why a lot of people clambered onto france as something different. azer stood out moreso from having plenty of weak songs around them.
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Systemsman
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Polls

Postby Systemsman » Sun May 15, 2011 10:55 am

willieboy "Also...why did the polls get it so wrong?

They didnt (see my earlier post) - you have to look at te top4/5 not just the Fav in any good poll.

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun May 15, 2011 11:01 am

was the last big poll u posted a cumulative result of all the voting sm? or was it just representative of the last coupla days?
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Postby jimny2 » Sun May 15, 2011 11:05 am

I think what we saw with both Norway and Germany is that a really good clever and different/quirky song will always get loads of votes from a broad range of countries/blocs...But in an average/poor year like this one then the voting blocs have a huge advantage even for an average song.

Let's not forget that last year Azerbaijan went close from a very poor draw with a song that wasn't that great either, just that this time everything fell in to place for them...And over the last few years since joining the Eurovision they have spent a lot of money in order to achieve this win, now the big question is will they continue with this policy turning the Eurovision in to a farce or will they be happy now they've won.

With regards to France and the UK I think it was obvious to most people on here that neither had much chance of winning despite the odds, they were poor songs/performances all the way through and with their lack of a bloc support would have needed something really memorable like we saw with Katrina and the Waves in order to win...Reading some of the posts in the days leading up to the final I got the impression that the France and UK supporters on here were trying to convince themselves that they were in with a chance as opposed to assessing the efforts objectively.
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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun May 15, 2011 11:12 am

completely agree jimny.
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Postby cbris78 » Sun May 15, 2011 11:42 am

They didnt (see my earlier post) - you have to look at te top4/5 not just the Fav in any good poll.
Only one of the 'big polls' top 5 (OK it was the winner) ended up in the overall top 10, hardly a success mate but as I said before they are a part of the puzzle and not to be followed blindly/manipulated to agree with bets already placed...

...................................................................................................

I got a similar impression to jimny re: some people finding it hard to be objective, either because of bets already placed of because of their own views on the songs. The block voting has never gone away, it's just the last 2 years the songs have been as someone said 'quirky' enough to transcend that. Even then last year only a handful of polls had Germany winning, as I'm sure someone will mention the big poll was one of these.

Be interesting to see the results of the full vote, i.e. jury and televote as you have to think Sweden topped the televote and could of maybe won from a later draw...

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