Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

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Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Daznverna » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:01 pm

Will anybody be doing the trends breakdowns like was done last year?

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Gman84 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:09 pm

Whilst not to speak on their behalf I know RobMull, who has done trends blogs in the past, hisn't doing this year for personal reasons whilst I think Micko70 has other blogging commitments. I'll be looking to start threads in the gmain horse racing forum on Sunday for each day linking to the threads in this section and I may knock up the trends and people can then apply them themselves.
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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Milly83 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:52 pm

Hi

I think the trends etc are already done for each race on the OLBG Cheltenham tips page but no one has applied it to the horses running yet!!

I'm praying someone does as it was successful last year!!

Thanks guys

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby joannemalone1 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:15 pm

Hi

I think the trends etc are already done for each race on the OLBG Cheltenham tips page but no one has applied it to the horses running yet!!

I'm praying someone does as it was successful last year!!

Thanks guys

Checkout Micko70 blogs in the betting blogs section of the site.
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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Milly83 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:20 pm

Sadly I don't think he's doing it this year I've seen he's done it for Mares but that's it

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby undertherobe » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:41 pm

If the trends are already there, can't people just apply them themselves?

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Milly83 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:49 pm

Definately

I'm just unsure as to a few of them and how to find them such as

Raced in class 2/grade 2

Ratings

Won over hurdles before (How do you know if the race was hurdles)

Sorry for being a pain!still learning

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby The Market Man » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:27 pm

I think there’s an overlap with some of the trends, leading to the odd one being basically redundant.

The trick is to use the strong trends to create a profile of the right horse. Ones that tick every box might be overbet ( trends and stats are used by layers and punters ) and something that fails on a weaker trend but is a bigger price can offer better value

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Shrews » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:41 pm

Definately

I'm just unsure as to a few of them and how to find them such as

Raced in class 2/grade 2

Ratings

Won over hurdles before (How do you know if the race was hurdles)

Sorry for being a pain!still learning
You need to go to the RP website, find the race, click on the horse's name and then full form for that horse will be available

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11 ... -15/689697

On reading the form you will see the following:

Date of race...Course/type of race/class of race...Distance...Going...Place/runners..starting price...Official Rating..TS.RPR
01Oct17..........Tip....... NvCh.......G3..... 17K..................2m4f........Hy................5/7.... ..........7/1................... 143............12....118

Class of race
The above course is Tipperary, type of race is a Novice (Nv) Chase (Ch) Grade 3 (G3) worth 17k. It's official rating is 143. If it was a hurdle race it would have a H instead of Ch, if it was a Handicap Hurdle it would become HcH

Class is determined by

Grade 1 (G1) the very best races
G2 - next best
G3 - next best
Listed - next best

Most of the above races will be at level weights, so it doesn't matter what their official rating is they will all carry the same weight. There are some allowances i.e mares will carry less weight than geldings.

Then we have the following:

C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6 - the lowest class of race

All the above, including some Listed races, will be handicaps i.e their official rating is taken into account and the horses weighted accordingly, so a horse with a 143 rating may carry 11st but a horse with a 133 rating would carry 10st 4lb (10lb lower) etc

TS - is the Racing Post's Topspeed rating, but I wouldn't take too much notice of that over jumps
RPR - is the Racing Post's ratings which can alert you to the horses best rating for the conditions of the race.

Hope this helps. By the way it's great to see a newcomer on here willing to learn the game. :win:

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Milly83 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:50 pm

Wow

Thankyou so much I was expecting to get an abrupt 1 line answer but this has proper made my day!!

Although I get the feeling my weekend may now be over hahaha

Do you use the trends for cheltenham ??

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby Shrews » Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:14 pm

Wow

Thankyou so much I was expecting to get an abrupt 1 line answer but this has proper made my day!!

Although I get the feeling my weekend may now be over hahaha

Do you use the trends for cheltenham ??
Yep, mainly because you need to cut the fields down to a shortlist to concentrate on. The trends are pretty accurate, but they will always be busted, you just have to trust in them. I personally don't discount a horse if they don't meet a trend but if they miss a few then I start to lose interest in them being worth a bet. So, in general:

- Not meeting one trend - still consider
- Two trends - still consider, but a concern. Would have to have decent form or from a top stable
- Three trends - starts to become a negative, even if the horse has decent form or from a top stable, it's still a negative
- Four trends - probably safe to discount

Obviously some trends are more important than others 10/10 trends are better than 7/10 trends etc. Even better if you can find a 20/20 or 19/20! However, don't forget they're really only telling you the typical 'type' of horse that wins the race and a trend may seem good but it might not help you much i.e all the horse's in the field might meet the trend! The secret is to find a good trend that narrows down the field.

In my opinion the two best sources of trends are:

https://cheltenham.olbg.com/
http://www.gaultstats.com/1-30-skybet-supreme-nov-hdle

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Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends and who fits the trends.

Postby luke225 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:49 pm

Shrews, will you or Micko be doing the trainers and jockey stats for it this year? I appreciate it takes a fair bit of time but just thought I'd ask.

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