Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Shrews
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Shrews » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:23 pm

Total Recall is now going for Gold. A very interesting development and I make this one a live contender for Mullins.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/go ... ize/319701

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby DannyCraig » Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:16 pm

Our Duke outstays Presenting Percy, and apart from one jumping error, I thought that was a solid prep run.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:03 pm

I thought he'd blown it when he cobbered the fence down the back and Our Duke did rally well in beating Presenting Percy, who is pretty useful and he was giving him weight. However, that blunder and mess 3 out in the Irish Gold Cup actually put me off him more. You have to jump well in the Gold Cup, there is no room for error and he hasn't shwon that tome in his last couple of runs. Maybe he sharpens up next time, he's still the type to keep improving but those errors put me off.

13/2 is the shortest price around now, can still get 10's with a few firms which, if I were wanting to back him, I'd take now as I think all the principles will be a bit shorter on the day.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:44 pm

Spent some time looking through some of the possible outsiders for this.

Double Shuffle. I've been on record as saying I don't think the King George form (in regards to Might Bite) is that strong but to be fair to this horse, he wasn't 2nd because the rest faded and he picked up the pieces. He was fairly prominent from start to finish and whilst off the bridle fairly early he responded to pressure and was finishing well. The stamina looks to be there and the hood has clearly helped. I felt he didn't jump fluently though which is a fairly big negative and this is going to be a tougher ask. He's placed at the course but never won and he hasn't the ideal profile. 40/1 generally. I wouldn't be involved but for the type of punter who likes a small e/w, it's not the worse bet in the world.

Outlander. I'm a big fan of this horse but lets be frank, he hates coming to the UK. All his best work is in Ireland and mainly at Leopardstown. I couldn't play even at 33's. I wouldn't be sure he even comes here and maybe he's saved for Punchestown or the like.

Total Recall. Can you consider him an outsider. 188Bet still have him at 25's (no idea if they are NRNB but at that price compared to the market, I suspect not). He just seems to keep on improving though and his recent spin over hurdles will havehim spot on for this. Mullins has never won the race but I think if you are looking for a fair price further down the field, this is the one to be on and I think he could be a market mover on the day especially if Mullins has shown good form in the previous three days.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Pisto1 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Spent some time looking through some of the possible outsiders for this.

Double Shuffle. I've been on record as saying I don't think the King George form (in regards to Might Bite) is that strong but to be fair to this horse, he wasn't 2nd because the rest faded and he picked up the pieces. He was fairly prominent from start to finish and whilst off the bridle fairly early he responded to pressure and was finishing well. The stamina looks to be there and the hood has clearly helped. I felt he didn't jump fluently though which is a fairly big negative and this is going to be a tougher ask. He's placed at the course but never won and he hasn't the ideal profile. 40/1 generally. I wouldn't be involved but for the type of punter who likes a small e/w, it's not the worse bet in the world.

Outlander. I'm a big fan of this horse but lets be frank, he hates coming to the UK. All his best work is in Ireland and mainly at Leopardstown. I couldn't play even at 33's. I wouldn't be sure he even comes here and maybe he's saved for Punchestown or the like.

Total Recall. Can you consider him an outsider. 188Bet still have him at 25's (no idea if they are NRNB but at that price compared to the market, I suspect not). He just seems to keep on improving though and his recent spin over hurdles will havehim spot on for this. Mullins has never won the race but I think if you are looking for a fair price further down the field, this is the one to be on and I think he could be a market mover on the day especially if Mullins has shown good form in the previous three days.
I keep coming back to native river.had a lovely prep run and hopefully C T will be in better form than last chelt fez.soft ground cam only enhance his chances

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Shrews » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:11 pm

Total Recall (Gold Cup)

Re-routing the horse here from the Grand National suggests he's improving and although Willie Mullins has never won the race, four 2nd's in the last 5 years shows he's usually competitive. This horse was transferred from the Sandra Hughes stable and since won three from three, including the Ladbrokes Trophy. He's a staying type, likely to be picking them off late on, the big question is, can he pick off enough to win the race?

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby geordieracer » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:23 pm

You can check my blog (3 parts) for the thinking here but you can be pretty sure to draw a line through a number of the fancied horses

Two big rules are
1 don't back last years winner unless you think he is a truly exceptional horse
2 don't back a horse who has tried and failed in this race

My 3 against the field are Kilultagh Vic, Edwulf and Road to Respect.
Might Bite won't get up.the hill.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Nunnylad » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:26 am

You can check my blog (3 parts) for the thinking here but you can be pretty sure to draw a line through a number of the fancied horses

Two big rules are
1 don't back last years winner unless you think he is a truly exceptional horse
2 don't back a horse who has tried and failed in this race

My 3 against the field are Kilultagh Vic, Edwulf and Road to Respect.
Might Bite won't get up.the hill.
This echo's my thoughts exactly. I have Road to Respect at 12-1 and Kilultagh Vic at 20-1, they'll do very nicely for me.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:09 pm

Derek O'Connor, who rode Edwulf to his win in the Irish Gold Cup, will ride the horse in this race. Confirmed today.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Arc Jimmy » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:45 pm

I generally make my pick when knowing what kind of going we will have & usually the weekend before but after looking at various weather forecasts without torrential downpours it looks like bits of rain/showers from Saturday onwards leaving what will probably be Soft ground so one who will appreciate this & won't want for stamina is

NATIVE RIVER.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Pisto1 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:09 pm

Sizing John is out as per sporting life

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:13 pm

Sizing John is out as per sporting life
Link to the story here.

That should shake up the market a bit.
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