Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

spurs1967
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby spurs1967 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:31 pm

ANYONE ON THE RIVER WITH ME ?

Difficult for me to understand why so few are talking about Native River as a likely candidate for this year`s Gold Cup. Presumably because we have not seen him since last year`s renewal but he is set to reappear on Saturday 10th February. His absence rates as a positive for me with trainer Colin Tizzard clearly looking to deliver him as a lightly-campaigned runner still with progress to offer. Jockey Richard Johnson has spoken publicly about how he should have set stronger fractions in the 2017 race , and potentially he could have some of his rivals off the bridle mid-race if going harder from the front this time.
Sidestepping the seemingly constant heavy ground this Winter may have proven smart , as it is recognised a campaign undertaken on testing ground is a negative trend in preparation for this race. It is apparent that a spell racing in such conditions can have a damaging and lasting effect on a horse and as a result many come up short at the festivals. Hopefully the ground will be suitable for his return , and with his fine-tuning exercise behind him he could be at an advantage come March.
Festival form often repeats and now as an eight year old he should be in his prime as a chaser. Capable of sustaining a relentless gallop as seen in the 2016 Hennessy , and this appears to help his rhythm and accuracy jumping. Recent years reflect the ground will likely be in his favour, and having been more specifically targeted this time around he could have the all-important edge.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby DannyCraig » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:26 pm

ANYONE ON THE RIVER WITH ME ?

Difficult for me to understand why so few are talking about Native River as a likely candidate for this year`s Gold Cup. Presumably because we have not seen him since last year`s renewal but he is set to reappear on Saturday 10th February. His absence rates as a positive for me with trainer Colin Tizzard clearly looking to deliver him as a lightly-campaigned runner still with progress to offer. Jockey Richard Johnson has spoken publicly about how he should have set stronger fractions in the 2017 race , and potentially he could have some of his rivals off the bridle mid-race if going harder from the front this time.
Sidestepping the seemingly constant heavy ground this Winter may have proven smart , as it is recognised a campaign undertaken on testing ground is a negative trend in preparation for this race. It is apparent that a spell racing in such conditions can have a damaging and lasting effect on a horse and as a result many come up short at the festivals. Hopefully the ground will be suitable for his return , and with his fine-tuning exercise behind him he could be at an advantage come March.
Festival form often repeats and now as an eight year old he should be in his prime as a chaser. Capable of sustaining a relentless gallop as seen in the 2016 Hennessy , and this appears to help his rhythm and accuracy jumping. Recent years reflect the ground will likely be in his favour, and having been more specifically targeted this time around he could have the all-important edge.
No horse has ever raced in the gold cup and come back the following season to win it, unless they were a previous winner. That’s quite a trend to overcome!

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:59 pm

Add in the fact he has yet to run this season. He's set to run in the Denman Chase this weekend so we'll know more then.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:20 pm

6 year olds don't win the gold cup .... cue long run 2011

Novices don't win the gold cup ....cue Coneygree 2015

Trends are there to be broken.....

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Shrews » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:05 pm

Possibly that trend is a horse that completed the course in the previous running as See More Business ran in the GC the year before he won it, BUT that is still a HUGE trend worthy of closer inspection.

2017 - Sizing John was 2nd in the Arkle in 2016
2016 - Don Cossack was 3rd in the Ryanair in 2015
2015 - Coneygree didn't run at the Festival in 2014, in fact he didn't run in the 13/14 season at all, in the 14/15 season he won the Kauto Star Novices at Kempton and the Denman chase at Newbury, prior to his win
2014 - Lord Windermere won the RSA in 2013
2013 - Bobs Worth won the RSA in 2012
2012 - Synchronised didn't run at the Festival, won the Welsh National in January 2011 (also 3rd in the Midlands National which of course comes after Cheltenham, so obviously geared towards the Nationals that year)
2011 - Long Run was 3rd in the RSA in 2010
2010 - Imperial Commander won the Ryanair in 2009
2009 - Kauto Star was 2nd in the Gold Cup in 2008, but had won it in 2007
2008 - Denman won the RSA in 2007
2007 - Kauto Star Fell in the Queen Mother 2006
2006 - War Of Attrition was 7th in the Arkle in 2005
2005 - Kicking King was 2nd in the Arkle in 2004
2004 - Best Mate won the Gold Cup in 2003
2003 - Best Mate won the Gold Cup in 2002
2002 - Best Mate didn't run at the festival in 2001, did win the Scilly Isles Novices in February and then 2nd in the Aintree Hurdle
2001 - No race - Foot and Mouth
2000 - Looks Like Trouble won the RSA in 1999
1999 - See More Business was carried out in the Gold Cup in 1998
1998 - Cool Dawn didn't run from November 96 until November 97

For this year's race:

RSA winner in 2017 was Might Bite
RSA 2nd in 2017 was Whisper
RSA 3rd in 2017 was Bellshill

Arkle 2nd in 2017 was Cloudy Dream

Ryanair winner in 2017 was Un De Sceaux
Ryanair 2nd in 2017 was Sub Lieutenant
Ryanair 3rd in 2017 was Aso

Gold Cup winner in 2017 was Sizing John

I think :D I'm happy to correct this if anyone spots an error.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:33 pm

Well, Native River did all you could ask at Newbury. Jumped well, controlled the race and looked great when Dicky Johnson changed gears in the home straight. A bit like Altior and even Saint Calvados today, just a little weary of the small field and a race that was cat and mouse but the purpose was to demonstate the horses well being and get some work into him before the main race itself and mission accomplished.

As short as 5/1 now in places, you can get 4/1 about Might Bite with 188Bet if you are still keen.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Wobber24 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:44 am

I Am a stats man and I know horses running again in gold cup have a shocking record but native river has got a good chance as any to reverse that trend simple reason been no horse is standing out I backed it last year and still think Johnson was not positive enough was staying on again up hill can't have might bite but taking form literally might bite beat double shuffle a length is fav for gold cup top notch beat double shuffle 8 lengths last time and is 6/1 for Ryanair

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:11 am

Bristol De Mai taken out of for this. Aiming for Aintree instead.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby DannyCraig » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:45 pm

Bristol De Mai taken out of for this. Aiming for Aintree instead.
Hasn’t run anywhere near good enough to be challenging for a gold cup this season, but on heavy ground could he be supplemented at a later date?

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:56 pm

Disko won't be in this either (or the Ryanair which looked a strong option).
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:22 pm

If where going to get a Soft ground Gold Cup, I'm more than happy with my Native River E/W 12's after that come back run.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Kessy1971 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:12 am

All depends on the ground for me as i would fancy a bit of ew on native river as the post above suggested

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