Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:16 pm

Ok... how will the race pan out...

There will be loads of pace ..Might Bite and BDM are going to right at it at the head of affairs... add in Native River and maybe we are going to have a slo motion finish up the hill after the last.... who would be the fast finisher?

For me Native River stays all day will be strongest of those 3 at the finish. .

Elsewhere what do we think will be held up and could do a Lord Windemere

Minella Rocco could be thst horse

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby drogerson » Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:51 pm

Now having had a look at the confirmed entries, I've now drawn up my shortlist based on a few key stats:

There are three key stats in the long range forecast for me:

Ran in a Gold Cup Before
Almost impossible to retain a Gold Cup, only Best Mate and Kauto Star have done so in recent years and I think we can all agree none of the field are in that category. However impossible it is to retain it, it's even more difficult if you've lost it. The stats for horse beaten and returning are very very poor.

Eliminated: Bristol De Mai, Coneygree, Cue Card, Djakadam, Minella Rocco, Native River, Outlander, Saphir Du Rheu, Sizing John, Smad Place &Tea For Two.

Ran over further than Gold Cup Distance
Horse ran over 3m3f+
Runners: 89
Winners: 1 (1.1%)
Places: 12 (13.5%)

Horses ran <3m2.5f
Runners: 186
Winners: 18
Places: 47

Horses are twice as likely to place and Nine times more likely to win. If they haven't been tried over staying trips further than the Gold Cup (i.e Nationals).

Eliminated: Blaklion, Definitely Red, Double Shuffle, Edwulf, Empire of Dirt, Our Duke, Rock The Kasbah, Shantou Flyer,
Sub Lieutenant, Tenor Nivernais & The Last Samurai.


Grade 1 winners
Horse's previously won a Grade 1
Runners: 116
Winners: 15 (12.9%)
Places: 39 (33.6%)

Horse's not Grade 1 winners
Runners: 148
Winners: 2 (1.4%)
Places: 16 (10.8%)

Nine times more likely to win and Three times more likely to place if you've previously won a Grade 1. Cream rises to the top in this case.
Some of the following that are eliminated could still win the Irish Gold Cup and make the shortlist so I'll include a Wildcard for the winner if needed. There's also the Ascot Chase in GB, but that is a poor prep for Cheltenham so I'm happy to discount it.

Eliminated: Acapella Bourgeois, Anibale Fly, Bachasson, Balko Des Flos, Clan Des Obeaux, Cloudy Dream, Mala Beach,
Rock The Kasbah & Total Recall
.

SHORLIST: Cloudy Dream, Coney Island, Disko, Killultagh Vic, Might Bite, Road To Respect, Valsuer Lido & Whisper + (WILDCARD)

I've got it now down to 8 plus the Wildcard Irish Gold Cup winner.

Cloudy Dream and Valsuer Lido have been put in their place enough times for me to strike them out.
Similarly Whisper has been beaten three times by Might Bite so I don't see a good reason for the overturn in form.

Out of the remaining five, I'm not overly convinced by Coney Island or Disko as they've both looked well over 2m4f/2m6f but haven't looked as good over 3m trips which is a concern.

Killultagh Vic looks destined for the Ryanair or World Hurdle at shorter prices, but may be worth sticking in Each Way NRNB.

So I have two which are relatively solid as far as I'm concerned.

Road To Respect put in a great showing in the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown and if he backs it up in the Irish Gold Cup then all the better. Generally available at 10's but 11's/12's still around he looks a sensible Each Way option.

However, I can't get away from MIGHT BITE. He's a unbeaten (bar the fall when he was well clear), triple Grade 1 chase winner and he's still available at 7/2.
They went off hard again in the King George, but yet again he saw them off. I feel his reputation has been dampened somewhat by his antics in the RSA but since then he was done nothing but win. I don't think he has to lead and given what happened in the King George they may let someone else bowl along early doors before taking it up to conserve more energy.

That said, I've got very few doubts about his profile to win the race (recent RSA winners are prolific in the Gold Cup) and at 7/2 looks a standout bet.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby sportingsamcan » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:17 pm

Great post drogerson.

I am all over Might Bite, people seem to not have really been excited by his win on Boxing Day (or his seasonal return at Sandown) That is just fine with me as we get a better price. More importantly we have not really seen any of his supposed quirks that everyone has come to expect from him.

My only concern is Henderson keeping his stable form going. 41% strike rate right now and everything is flying. Just hope that continues for the next 8 weeks.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Gman84 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:28 pm

If you do like Sizing John for this still then he is currently boosted to 8/1 by SkyBet - unsure for how long - but that is a point above the best price currently on the markets (7/1). Suspect it’s for today only.
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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby kingkautostar » Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:27 pm

Does Vic have a chance in the GC after today’s race? All being well after the fall of course

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Nunnylad » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:03 pm

Does Vic have a chance in the GC after today’s race? All being well after the fall of course
Missed the race earlier and haven't had chance to catch up with it yet, I had Vic backed at 20s for the GC and saw now into 10s despite falling so assume he ran a good race before the fall? I can see Vic staying on past Might Bite as that starts wandering around like last year.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby drogerson » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:54 am

For all Killultagh Vic was in the lead, he hadn't extended from the one length he was infront of Edwulf off the turn.

Either way, I think it's a poor renewal of the Irish Gold Cup as Outlander and Djakadam have comfortably proven they aren't up to the standard.

I'm surprised and relatively delighted that Might Bite is still 7/2 as I've had another go on him.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby kingkautostar » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:49 pm

To my eye Vic would have won comfortably if it wasn’t for the fall. Still an absolutely great story with edwulf though. You really can’t beat the jumps. Thinking of going to this new festival next year as was a cracking two days of racing!

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:14 pm

For all Killultagh Vic was in the lead, he hadn't extended from the one length he was infront of Edwulf off the turn.

Either way, I think it's a poor renewal of the Irish Gold Cup as Outlander and Djakadam have comfortably proven they aren't up to the standard.

I'm surprised and relatively delighted that Might Bite is still 7/2 as I've had another go on him.
I've since watched it a numerous times and feel Vic was going to win that race comfortably but for the fall and would've pulled away. I really don't understand the Might Bite hype, faced with the hill he's going to wander again and going against far better horses than last year. I'd have to be offered 8-1+ to have an interest in that horse, 7/2 is an awful price IMO.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby DannyCraig » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:54 pm

I’ve just watched that race a number of times over, and Our Duke makes a terrible mistake when going ok from 3 out, nods on landing and loses 10 lengths (ish). Was given a relatively easy race thereafter but still wasn’t that far behind considering it had the stuffing knocked out of it. With a clear round of jumping I think 10s might look too big.

With regard to Might Bite wandering and being outstayed, I think you have to also factor in how quick a jumper he is, and he might make things come too quickly for someone trying to pick him up from off the pace. He might not actually stay the Gold Cup trip, but if the others make mistakes trying to keep up with him on that second circuit, then they won’t have enough in the tank to outstay him.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby drogerson » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:12 am

In terms of Killultagh Vic, he comes round the bend a length infront of Edwulf and is still at that margin at the final fence. He was travelling better, but quite frankly he would have needed to win that by a few lengths to have any hope Might Bite's standard.
Now an LTO faller, which is a huge negative.


There seems to be a lot made of the fact that he wandered a bit ONCE and forgetting the fact that he had already burned off most of his rivals and still had enough to get back up on the line.
The fact that he clearly had enough to get back up suggests that he'll stay the Gold Cup trip.

There's an interview with Ruby Walsh about last season's RSA about how fast they went and how sure he was that Might Bite wouldn't sustain it.
He did and he's economical over his fences.

As nunnylad says, they could be out of the race before stamina becomes a problem.

He's won 5 of his last 6 chases includes three Grade 1's.
He's so far beaten his rivals convincingly and I can't see any negatives associated with him, especially with the positive record that RSA winners have in this race over recent times.
He's had a clear prep, everything's gone to plan.

7/2 for a horse without a standout challenger, imo, is exceptional value.

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Re: Gold Cup - Friday 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby whiterider82 » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:00 pm

In terms of Killultagh Vic, he comes round the bend a length infront of Edwulf and is still at that margin at the final fence. He was travelling better, but quite frankly he would have needed to win that by a few lengths to have any hope Might Bite's standard.
Now an LTO faller, which is a huge negative.


There seems to be a lot made of the fact that he wandered a bit ONCE and forgetting the fact that he had already burned off most of his rivals and still had enough to get back up on the line.
The fact that he clearly had enough to get back up suggests that he'll stay the Gold Cup trip.

There's an interview with Ruby Walsh about last season's RSA about how fast they went and how sure he was that Might Bite wouldn't sustain it.
He did and he's economical over his fences.

As nunnylad says, they could be out of the race before stamina becomes a problem.

He's won 5 of his last 6 chases includes three Grade 1's.
He's so far beaten his rivals convincingly and I can't see any negatives associated with him, especially with the positive record that RSA winners have in this race over recent times.
He's had a clear prep, everything's gone to plan.

7/2 for a horse without a standout challenger, imo, is exceptional value.
In terms of KV and Edwulf, KV was coming there on the snaff, Townend was holding him together to get him over the last, if he had done that then i'm certain he would of extended away from the field. As it is, we will never know, and you need to be able to Jump to win a Gold Cup and Might Bite can do just that.

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