Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby PompeyJim » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:42 am

Sceau Royal misses the race after suffering setback.
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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby bazakehurst » Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:20 pm

All aboard the Footpad train then, I guess.

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Gman84 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:29 pm

Disappointing for the Alan King yard but I suspect he’s not the last high profile drop out we’ll hear of.

I took 5’s about Saint Calvados a few days back and all the market have shortened on the back of this but listening to the BetBright preview on YouTube the other night and Dave Jennings getting behind Brain Power. I couldn’t have him if this was a 2 runner race. He seems better right handed and his jumping is guessy at times and in a 2 mile speed test I can’t see him jumping well enough to stay with the principals. I just can’t see how he’s single figure odds. We might say something like if Saint Calvados was with Nicky Henderson he’d be vying for favouritism but in this case, if Brain Power was with - and with all due respect - Harry Whittington, I think he’d be 25-40/1. Two falls and a win against absolutely nothing at Kempton and his previous visits to Cheltenham haven’t been happy ones over hurdles. I’ll be laying for a place (suspect we only get a small field here) and if Brain Power wins it’s Nicky Henderson’s best ever training performance, even better than getting Sprinter Sacre back to winning ways a couple of years ago.

Is there a live outsider in this? Maybe North Hill Harvey can be it? His Cheltenham record, especially in small fields, is excellent, although his worse run at the track was at last years festival when down the field in the County. I’d rather back him e/w at the prices than Brain Power though.
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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby PompeyJim » Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:41 pm

Totally agree Gman as regards Brain Power, couldn't be in better hands for a tilt at the Arkle but he's just not a natural jumper for me. I saw him in the flesh at the OLBG day at Kempton when he beat a couple of rivals back in November. He obviously has plenty of class but he looked a little awkward for me at his fences, not making a nice shape so to speak and landing steeply at a few. I was not surprised at all when he unshipped his jockey at Sandown last time and just can't have him in a race like the Arkle where jumping and everything is put to the test.

Big disappointment that Sceau Royal is out, won in the style of a top horse at Sandown and travelled really well which is key here.
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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:40 am

This is not just " pre-date nerves " but i have a slight concern about Footpad being taken on by Saint Calvados.

Much of Footpad's improvement has been attributed to his switch to fences but the change in tactics have also helped. What we don't know is how he'll react when another horse takes him on.

I have both at nice prices but even though i've been against Petit Mouchoir all season, it's been based mostly on breeding and his injury

Ruby's race fitness ( assuming he rides ), Aidan Coleman's poor festival record ( he gets his Cheltenham wins at the smaller meetings )...could Davy Russell just watch the front two take each other on and pounce in the home straight ?

Fascinating race

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Nunnylad » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:02 am

This is not just " pre-date nerves " but i have a slight concern about Footpad being taken on by Saint Calvados.

Much of Footpad's improvement has been attributed to his switch to fences but the change in tactics have also helped. What we don't know is how he'll react when another horse takes him on.

I have both at nice prices but even though i've been against Petit Mouchoir all season, it's been based mostly on breeding and his injury

Ruby's race fitness ( assuming he rides ), Aidan Coleman's poor festival record ( he gets his Cheltenham wins at the smaller meetings )...could Davy Russell just watch the front two take each other on and pounce in the home straight ?

Fascinating race
If Aidan Coleman had had the rides that Ruby has had he wouldn't have a "bad record" at the festival. "trends" like that are absolute nonsense.

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:02 pm

I disagree. He has an 18% strike rate at Ascot, 9% at Cheltenham

Picking a jockey who can cope with every part of the day is an important aspect of backing winners.
Some jockeys ride some courses better than others, get the tactics right more often than other jockeys.
Despite riding for Nicky Henderson, Andrew Tinkler won one race in about fifty during a five year period at Sandown.
That can’t all be down to the horses.

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby Nunnylad » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:39 am

I disagree. He has an 18% strike rate at Ascot, 9% at Cheltenham

Picking a jockey who can cope with every part of the day is an important aspect of backing winners.
Some jockeys ride some courses better than others, get the tactics right more often than other jockeys.
Despite riding for Nicky Henderson, Andrew Tinkler won one race in about fifty during a five year period at Sandown.
That can’t all be down to the horses.
I'd love to see a breakdown of the price of horses Coleman has ridden at Cheltenham, I'd wager good money the majority of those are big prices. And even shorter priced horses, majority of races he'd have ridden will have been incredibly competitive. IMO nothing should be read into it.

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby titans choice » Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:32 am

Has Aidan Coleman had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival because if not then there is a chance he might get nervous if he is leading with 3 to jump even an experienced jockey of 29 can make an error.

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:02 am

A jockeys ability / record is factored into the price, along with that of his trainer.

It’s why “ if he were trained by Nicky Henderson he’d be much shorter odds “ is misleading, particularly at the festival

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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby PompeyJim » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:55 am

Has Aidan Coleman had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival because if not then there is a chance he might get nervous if he is leading with 3 to jump even an experienced jockey of 29 can make an error.
Aiden Coleman's festival record is 1 winner from 106 rides since 2008, 2 if you include Any Currency that won the Cross Country Chase in 2016 but was then subsequently disqualified at a later date.

He's had 6 2nd's, 3 of them coming last year 7/1, 12/1 & 16/1.
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Re: Arkle Trophy - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

Postby The Market Man » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:32 pm

Brilliant for Footpad. Ruby learned from the first race.

Shockers from Coleman and Russell. It was always going to be an issue for Saint Calvados backers.

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