Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March 2018 (Day 1)

[Shrews]

Samcro definitely does not run in this according to Matt Chapman on The Opening Show. He'd had confirmation from Gordon Elliott who confirmed he was going for the Ballymore on Wednesday.

[Gman84]

Western Ryder does run in this now with the predicted going changing being the thinking. Had previously looked more likely for the Ballymore.

[nickpilbeam]

Some trends for this race:
19 of the last 20 winners had won at least 50% of all their career hurdle races

Age
• 39 of the last 43 renewals have been won by 5 & 6-y-o's
Betting
• 7 of the last 10 Irish winners were their most fancied runner
• 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 6 in the betting
Only 4 of the last 20 horses to start at 3/1 or under have won.
Class
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run in a Graded race (8 of the 10 won)
Distance
• All of the last 13 winners had won at 2m – 2m1f
• All of the last 13 winners raced over 2m -2m2f last time out
Previous runs
• 10 of the last 13 winners won their previous race
• All of the last 13 winners had run 2-5 times over hurdles
• 12 of the last 13 winners had run 2-4 times since October
• 12 of the last 13 winners had run within the last 60 days (all 13 had been rested at least 16
days)

Today I see the declarations were confirmed... using the stats & trends above I get a shortlist of:-

Getabird, Kalashnikov, First Flow & Us and Them. However, I'm not interested in the first two as they are too short and Summerville Boy beat Kalashnikov and can do so again.

My selections will be First Flow & Summerville Boy. I'll do one with SKy to get the free bet if it loses and the other ew.

[Gman84]

A few of us had identified Summerville Boy as a potential bet a few weeks ago so hopefully members got on at a good price. I managed to get 11/1 with the SkyBet offer. Heavy ground definitely helped his cause and the fact he was able to recover from a bad error two out is testament to the horses character and Noel Fehily’s horsemanship.