Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

TeddyT
Classic Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 892
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2006 12:00 am
Location: Sheffield
Contact:

Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby TeddyT » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:47 pm

National Hunt fans only really have Punchestown and Sandown to look forward to for the 2016/17 season but it's never too early to start thinking about the horses who might be involved in the big races next year.

The best place to start is probably the 2018 Gold Cup and currently the bookies are betting as follows:
  • Thistlecrack 6/1
    Sizing John 6/1
    Yorkhill 8/1
    Might Bite 10/1
    Our Duke 12/1
    Native RIver 12/1
    Douvan 12/1
    Minella Rocco 16/1
    25/1 Bar
The first thing to say is if all or most of the above were there on the day we would be in for a treat but is there any early value?

Personally I'm not sure that this year's Gold Cup was a high quality race and I'd want to be against the horses that ran there. Yorkhill and Might Bite are seriously talented but definitely have quirks so I'm not sure they are ante post propositions. Thistlecrack and Douvan have injuries to come back from so the one that interests me at the moment is Our Duke but he probably looks short enough given that he has to prove he acts at Cheltenham. Many punters will probably ask when was the last time an Irish National winner went on to win the Gold Cup and that is a fair question but the manner of Our Duke's victory impressed the official handicapper to the point that Jessica Harrington's gelding is now officially rated within one pound of Sizing John.
It was a while ago but Commanche Court also won the Irish National as a novice and then went on to finish second to Best Mate in a Gold Cup two years later so the leap in class is not insurmountable.

Do any of our members feel there is good value in the early ante post market for the Gold Cup?
OLBG Tipster Competition Manager

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2605
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby The Market Man » Mon May 01, 2017 10:47 am

My current feeling about the race is that it revolves around Thistlecrack and Might Bite. If the former is returned to full fitness then he's surely finishing in the first three.
However, Might Bite can progress past the Tizzard horse but only if he recovers from his phenomenal novice season. I doubt we'll see him finish like that at Cheltenham again - as i've said before, it's not natural for horses to run into a cul de sac like the one at the end of the straight there and i think he was going for the parade ring / stable exit. Whisper comes alongside, he feels reassured and so commits to the finish. He's learned from that now but i'm not sure Aintree was a good idea and it may have been going to the well once to often - we'll see.

So why not Whisper ? Currently 10th in the betting at 25-1 ( much bigger on the exchanges ) and if something happens to two or three of those at shorter odds ( as it did this season ) then i can see him finishing in the first three.

A slightly unusual RSA renewal this year in that winner and second will be rising 9 and 10 respectively when they begin their second season as chasers, which is two or three years above the usual age for such horses. It didn't appear to be an RSA from which one could identify the next season's Hennessy winner

titans choice
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1636
Joined: Sun May 03, 2015 11:00 pm

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby titans choice » Mon May 01, 2017 12:21 pm

Considering Our Duke beat Coney Island by half a length at Leopardstown in a 3 mile chase on the 29/12/16 it is a big difference in odds as Our Duke is availble at around 12/1 while Coney Island is 20/1 with Paddy Power and is as high as 50/1 with bet365 and Coney Island was half a length ahead of Disko in the same race and is lower in odds then Coney Island.The concern for me about Coney Island would be the going as it has only ran on soft or yielding so the conditions at Cheltenham in march may not suit it but if it can handle good ground then could be a decant Each Way pick.

jaydubs
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 5525
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Mon May 01, 2017 6:54 pm

I thought Coneygree ran a very good race last week given the length of time it had been off the course.

A season behind it and it should be ready for another tilt

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1576
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue May 02, 2017 2:51 pm

I thought Coneygree ran a very good race last week given the length of time it had been off the course.

A season behind it and it should be ready for another tilt
Surely nobody would back him without the NRNB? Injury prone to say the least.

The Market Man
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2605
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby The Market Man » Tue May 09, 2017 8:13 am

Sizing John being aimed at the £1m bonus races, which should be good news for Haydock !

Brownie3
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1576
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Leeds, Yorkshire

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue May 09, 2017 10:59 am

Providing Bonus confirmed.....not yet in place!

Great boost for the 3 mile Chase division in England if he does come over.

The Executioner
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11783
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Gold Cup - Cheltenham 16th March 2018 (Day 4)

Postby The Executioner » Fri May 12, 2017 12:21 pm

Thistlecrack appears to be one of those horses that you are either WITH or AGAINST , there doesn't appear to be a happy medium surrounding him. He was an outstanding hurdler of that we cannot deny , and impressed when taking the King George on Boxing Day, however the King George and the Cheltenham Gold Cup are completely different types of races and I would have to say that Thistlecrack DOESN'T appeal to me as a future Gold Cup winner. He is beatable and that was proved when the hardy Many Clouds got the better of him in a driving finish at Newbury, and let's face it there will be better horses than Many Clouds ( as much as I loved him ) taking him on at the festival should they all make it there in good health in 2018. Sizing John - Native River - and Our Duke are tough as teak with class and will still only be 8yo's in 2018 and possibly be open to further improvement while Thistlecrack will be a 10yo and given his problem late last season begs the question - Have we already seen the best of him ? Might Bite is talented but may struggle with the trip and we all know what happened up the hill this year, while Yorkhill and Minella Rocco are others to consider. Cue Card and Djakadam appear to have had their chances and they are hard to consider as long range betting possibilities, and the fragile former winner Coneygree clearly retains ability but you are gambling that he would even make it to the line up. Douvan has been touted but he will be coming back from injury and is likely to be kept at shorter trips , so it appears that there are question marks against a number of those to the fore of the betting.


If I was given a free bet at this stage then I would be tempted to play the Harry Fry trained American EW at odds of 40/1, he was an improver in three races as a novice last season, and his Uttoxeter win in March suggested that he may well be better than a handicapper. I can't see the Gold Cup trip posing any problems and he seems to jump well enough, the one slight drawback though is that he may well be ground dependent - with some give required in order for him to produce his best form. At 40/1 he maybe worth a small risk long range in the hope of '' soft '' appearing somewhere in the going description come March. He certainly makes more appeal at the odds than some of those mentioned above.
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412109

2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412443

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot]