Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

nors
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Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:42 pm

Please add any Cheltenham horses of note for Thursday and help each other find winners.

Market Movers
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Trainers to note

Robmull
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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Robmull » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:50 pm

It was a bit of a mixed day for the trends based selections, with Willoughby Court winning the first race, Acapella Bourgeios struggling on the quickish ground (only backed it ante post Each Way NRNB, as trainer Sandra Hughes stated that he wouldn't race if the ground was too firm), Fox Norton just missing out in the Champion Chase (rather galling that I had backed Special Tiara in the last 2 renewals) and finally FAYONAGH (admittedly 1 of 4 selections) winning the Champion Bumper.

However, backing all of the selections generated a good profit for the day, which was supplemented with using a couple of my free bets in respect of stake refunds on losers on (a very worthwhile concession from SkyBet and Betway) on CAUSE OF CAUSES (Gordon Elliott/Jamie Codd) in the Cross Country Chase.

I have finalised my trends based blogs with selections for the 3 Grade 1 races on the third day of the festival, which can be accessed via the Punters Guide (see link below) and will be using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse the 3 handicaps later this evening, prior to posting my selections in the tipping competition.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find and post some good winners on this thread today, which will put us all on the road to a profitable Cheltenham Festival.

Recent blogs:

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Punters Guide
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412199

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby kevgar85 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:59 pm

Anybody confident on Yorkhill ?

I've got it on a few lines ( mainly placed ante post) starting to think Willie's horses ain't right. I know melon and the 2 mares ran well but I don't think VVM was right either.

Hoping Diamond King ain't another Tombstone.

Verdana blue in 4.50 looks a good bet at 33s.

Jury Duty has cracking form, plenty short enough now.

Good luck all.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:17 pm

I was confident about Yorkhill pre festival and while the Mullins form doesn't necessarily put me off but I wouldn't be going crazy as there are better alternatives at the prices. I have him in a couple of multiples but will leave it at that, I've used the money back as free bet sky bet offer on Politilogue as I feel this has a great chance and have a money back if horse loses bet with bet365 from the ITV 4-1 offer that I've used to back Flying Angel E/W. Wouldn't normally back 3 horses but with those offers it is silly not to. Flying Angel looks good value and is a really progressive looking horse, first time tongue tie makes this very interesting and with Yorkhill not being straightforward and unable to jump in a straight line I would want to be taking him on rather than backing at this stage, I'm just tied in with my ante post multiples.

Another couple of fantastic bets in my eyes, Tango De Juilley in the 4.10 is very interesting at 25-1, finished 2nd in this race last year to Empire of Dirt who is obviously a class horse, that was after a long absence so being off the track since then is no concern, surely been aimed at this race and looks set to run a big one.

Already mentioned Coilette Lass in the relevant thread on here for the Mares's Novice, 28-1 is massive for a horse that finished 7l behind VVM LTO off level weights. I liked the 16-1 price quoted ante post so this is fantastic.

Bet of the day is Uxiandre, 9/2 for a horse that won this 2 years ago and finished 2nd to UDS LTO after being off the track since that win. Will come on for that run and will absolutely love this ground, whereas UDS won't enjoy it. Empire of Dirt is better over further, this really is the value bet of the race and the day. I've doubled him up with Unowhatimeanharry too, as I cannot see him being beaten unless falling and still can't believe he isn't odds on.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:58 pm

Not the best day for the Tipster Panel but we found some places and a couple of ok winners individually. Here's our day 3 thoughts:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412456

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Dazious » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:29 am

I also really fancy Uxizandre for the Ryanair. I think the better ground will be in his favour and will cause for a reversal in the form between him and Un De Sceaux.

A really interesting horse for me is Voix D'Eau in the 16:10, he had a very good win at Cheltenham in April last year after a similar 4 month break, where he beat Art Mauresque. He was certainly not disgraced in the following 3 runs, and it's likely that his most recent run came to soon after his 9 and 1/2 length defeat in late October. This horse has been dropped 3lb since his last run and is now back within 1lb of his last winning mark. 33/1 is currently available with 6 places which seems like good value to me. I also think Baron Alco will go well in that race and is another that seems a solid Each Way bet at 14/1.

In the Pertemps Final (14:10) Golden Doyen is the value for me. He is in fine form at the moment and has only been put up 3lbs for his last win, where he beat For Good Measure. For Good Measure has gone up 6lb for that defeat, meaning Golden Doyen is now 3lb better off in the weights than For Good Measure, yet Golden Doyen is 20/1 and For Good Measure is at 8s. I'm struggling to understand the market there so an Each Way bet on Golden Doyen is the way to go for me!

In the last race (17:30) I think Another Hero will run well with the trainers son claiming 5lbs, effectively bringing the horse back down to his last winning mark, he's been running well since his last win without winning and will like the ground tomorrow so 14/1 seems fine to me!

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:20 am

I think Gayebury @ 16/1 is overpriced, it beat Jury Duty by 13L last time gets hit with 15lbs rise in the weights, but if you look 3 starts back he finished 8L behind Willoughby Court who won the Neptune yesterday beating Neon Wolf, a line through that form gives him a real chance and difficult to see him out the frame even with top weight.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:24 am

Is there a Leader Board Table for the Chelters competition?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Imaginarium » Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:20 am

who'll be riding Bouvreuil?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby DhenBhoy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:49 am

who'll be riding Bouvreuil?
Walsh :?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:06 am

who'll be riding Bouvreuil?
Walsh :?
Walsh misses the festival with concussion so won't be him.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival - Thursday 16th March Discussion

Postby millersteve » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:24 am

I’m heading to Cheltenham early Thursday morning with an overnight stay in a Cardiff hotel then back to the course for Friday, which happens to be my birthday.
JLT Novices Chase
I’ve had a 12/1 ante post ticket on Disko since he won the Flogas and I see no reason to give up on him now. He could be the one to put Yorkhill’s jumping under pressure and profit from any mistakes.

Pertemps Network Final
Isleofhopendreams comes here in form having performed well in a couple of qualifiers. Won last time out and horses winning their last run have won 4 times in last 10 years. Form of last race has worked out well with 3 wins emerging from it since including 2nd home Sutton Manor. He has had a shorth chase career winning his only start and horses that have run over fences have won 6 of these finals in last dozen years. Ground dpes appear gto be a bit of the unknown but this top stable are due some wins this week.

Ryanair Chase
Josses Hill has improved this season and should better his midfield position in this race last year. He won the Peterborough Chase earlier this season before a not disgraced 5 of 5 behind Thistlecrack in the King George, beaten by 7l. Plenty of also rans from the King George have won this and the stable are having a fantastic week.

Festival Plate
Sizing Codelco in what is often a wide open handicap. Can be excused last run over 3m and in first time blinkers may improve to grab his first win this season. Colin Tizzard does need to get his horses running but this one showed promise at Ascot on penultimate start finishing just over 1l behind Top Notch.

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