Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Shrews
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:40 pm

Wednesday looks a tricky day with nothing that really stands out as a massive fancy. There's plenty I've liked and changed my mind about and plenty of stats and trends I like but don't like the form and plenty of form I like but don't like the stats and trends!

Hargam in the Coral Cup could be a value alternative to Tombstone back on better ground. Henderson says he's a difficult to get fit (and presumingly that stops him winning as often as he should). Bound to be fit for this one.

Sausalito Sunrise is a classy sort in context to others in the race and Hobbs/Johnson do well in this. If he takes to a cross country course he could go well

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:41 am

If Tombstone get's around safely I think he absolutely hacks up. If you want to back him get on now because I can see him being smashed tomorrow, this horse finished 4th in the Supreme last year. Let's have a look at the rest of the top 5 of the race and their form since that race. Altior - Arkle winner. Min - Grade 1 winner. Buveur D'Air - Champion hurdle winner. Charbel - Had every chance in the Arkle before falling.

I just cannot be more bullish about a horse than this, especially given how well handicapped he looks. This is my NAP of the day and ones of the naps of the whole meeting.

Old Guard is worth a mention too, Nicholls said he liked this one if the ground was drying which it will be, is back on a very winnable mark after being too high last year and has a big turnaround in weights with Modus who beat him two starts ago and trip was too far LTO so has had excuses. 25-1 and worth a bit of e/w.
Yes, in agreement with you on Tombstone , bet of the day!

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:55 am

Had a 50-1 winner and place yesterday, continuing with that theme I have another for today's racing that looks way over priced, Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase. This horse will be held up off a strong pace set by Special Tiara and will come through the beaten horses late on. Was beaten by Special Tiara LTO when giving him weight and made a mistake two out which cost him victory. I was already on God's Own in the without market, but that is now too short for me to have E/W, this one represents great value. I've got this in forecasts tricasts with God's Own And Douvan, with the thinking that if Douvan were to fall or be brought down then these two could well be next in line.

I will walk to Cheltenham next year if Sir Valentino wins the Champion Chase!
And I don't say that lightly in my condition! :-)
lol I don't expect this one to win but chance of a place is high IMO and you're getting more than 12-1 for the place.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:28 am

From Tuesday is there any collateral form that helps us with Wednesday (as above). If a horse ran well on the Tuesday and it got beat by a horse running on the Wednesday (or any day) these are horses to keep on our side.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Sgt Bilko » Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:28 am

Morning!

Gutted I'm working until Thursday but keeping up with all things Cheltenham on Olbg.

Couple of Cheltenham whispers for members.

There's been a couple of talking horses at my work since 06/03 after we received some strong info that day.

First one is DEBUCHET in the bumper today. I've backed it and would be keen to hear your thoughts.

The second, more intriguing one is LINGER in the 450. Taking a huge step up in class, but the trainers in great form. We've all talked ourselves into this being a real springer in the market today, some really fancy prices we've taken but you can get 33/1 atm. Again thoughts would be appreciated?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby millersteve » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:13 am

Nors Haymount was 3rd to Acapella Bourgeois in the Ten Up Novices Chase in February and was placed in the 4 miler yesterday, Acapella goes for the RSA today

Robmull my only winner yesterday was Apples Jade but I hit the bar with a couple of ew ante post bets, Melon 20/1 and Petit Mouchoir 33/1

Three selections today so far with possibly more to follow.

Neptune Novices Hurdle

Bacardys brings Grade 1 form here following his win in the Deloitte at Leopardstown and tries to emulate Windsor Park in completing the double today. Should cope with the step up in trip and the ground should be suitable. Settles well and should give stable their first win of the meeting

RSA Chase

Acapella Bourgeois has steadily improved all season culminating in an easy win in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novices Chase at Navan last time out, 3rd home that day Haymount was placed in the 4 miler yesterday. He jumps well and efficiently and is versatile as to tactics.

Coral Cup

Automated won well last time out over 2m 4f at Navan and is trained by Gordon Elliot who was in super form yesterday and often targets this race. Second season hurdler coming here in form and has experience in large field handicaps.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:54 am

Apples Jade did me proud as well yesterday and Gold Present nearly ended the day in style but back up for another go today.

My selections are all on the tipster blog (follow link in dog below) but the two I really like today are Messire Des Obeaux in the opener - with Alan along seeinly very keen on this ones chances - and even at a big price and a poor race in terms of how Mares do I can't back anything other than Irish Roe in the bumper.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby nors » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:10 am

O O Seven, Marinero and Heron Heights were entered all over the place at Cheltenham and have decided on the RSA. All 3 saw money in the antepost markets and with mightbite dividing punters opinion i think these runners can give us a return in the place markets.

00seven 16/1
Marinero 25/1
Heron Heights 33/1

On Betfair you can back them to palce at 5.0, 6.2, 8.2.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Derbz87 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:32 am

Very tricky day today I'm staggered at the market for the Neptune Hurdle - market implies it's a two horse race but there's plenty of reason to take both on (the ground being the key one where Neon Wolf is concerned, I think Bacardys will be too slow and probably wants some cut too) and it wouldn't suprise me at all if one of Messire Des Obeaux, Shattered Love, Willoughby Court, William Henry or Brelade showed enough improvement to get involved, or even one nobody has considered. I won't be disappointed if Neon Wolf scoots up because he looks pretty special but has it all to do still.

Couldn't have Cause Of Causes at his price for the Cross Country, not that I'm particularly interested in the race. It's all based on hearsay from the trainer and his record over normal fences, Cantlow or Auvergant look much safer to me but my old friend from last year Any Currency will love this too and there's the French raider who was very impressive in December.

Tombstone is a silly price in a wide-open handicap in which the form is based entirely around the unknown retained ability of Jezki, his claims for me are no better than Supasundae or Mister Miyagi on last years Supreme. Around half the field could be well-in here.

Ditto Divin Bere in the Fred Winter, collateral assumptions made around Master Blueeyes, there's probably loads in here that haven't shown their hand and this race is a punters nightmare historically so expect the unexpected.

I could be very wrong but prepare for another day where the bookies are being declared as the winners. What gets me is the people moaning about their performance at Cheltenham financially, it's the toughest racing of the year to tip winners, particularly the handicaps, enjoy the racing and count your lucky stars if you aren't in the red by the end of the week is my attitude. At the same time be sensible on the staking! :win:

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby IggyRovers » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:38 am

Last 2 races of the day

Linger
Deubachet

Nice E/W double.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby ians6290 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:45 am

Three bets so far for today. Most likely will keep it at that.

Neon Wolf in the Neptune (free bet for the first race). Got 2/1 early this morning.

Willoughby Court e/w in the Neptune. Got 14/1 this morning and is my main bet. I've been following this horse for a while.

Tombstone in Coral cup. Last years supreme form is working out very well and on that basis he should be very well handicapped.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby The Executioner » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:57 am

Had a 50-1 winner and place yesterday, continuing with that theme I have another for today's racing that looks way over priced, Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase.

Something has to fill the places but just because he is a big price does not make him '' overpriced '' , personally I cannot see anything that suggests he should be shorter than those odds. Of the outsiders Top Gamble appeals more to me @50/1 , sure he needs to improve on what we know of him and I am not suggesting for one minute that he can beat Douvan - but why stump up a suplementary fee of ( I think was ) £17,500 if you are not expecting an improvement showing on this season's efforts, not a forlorn hope of pinching a place.
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