Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

The Executioner
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby The Executioner » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:01 am

In the Cross Country at 4.10 there are question marks against a number of these , it's an open looking renewal but Colour Squadron may outrun his 28/1 quote and he certainly won't lack anything from the saddle.
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
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2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby m000ny » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:25 am

One I'm really not sure about in the Neptune is Bacardys, there's a fair bit of form from the Supreme yesterday that surrounds the Neptune. Bacardys beat Bunk Off Early but that disapointed yesterday. I feel the one that comes out on top when looking at yesterday's race is Messire Des Obeaux considering he beat Ballyandy at Sandown carrying 7lb more. Neon Wolf could be a good thing not sure 2/1 is good or not he may well hack up, I also like Shattered Love as mentioned earlier and have all ways tricast on NW, SL and MDO :hope:

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Winniematt » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:49 am

To me this looks like a good day for the punters akin to a Tuesday at a few recent festivals. I may be Wrong and I very often am but a lot of the favourites/shorter priced runners look to be strong today.

1:30 Neon Wolf
Looked a class horse when Strolling away with the grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock. Elgin Has been a decent Yardstick this season and although well beaten yesterday did finish well ahead of Bunk off early who ran Bacardys to 1/2 a length in the Deloitte. That being said i think Bacardys will improve for the trip but personally can't see him beating Neon Wolf coming up the Hill.
2:10 Might Bite
Now I'm probably more biased than most on this horse as i'm sitting on a nice bet at 12/1 placed after his fall at Kempton on Boxing day. However that day he was going to hack up at a canter, the eventual winner Royal Vacation has no doubt improved. His rating rose from 131 to 143 after winning the Kauto star and then went on to win a handicap at Cheltenham by 8 lengths earning him another rise of 9Lbs. I know the arguments against Might Bite, his jumping can be sketchy and he's unproven round Cheltenham, however if he gets into a rhythm and jumps well 7/2 could look a very big price come 2:20.
2:50 Peregrine Run
Tombstone Looks supremely well handicapped and i'm a bit gutted that he goes for this and not the county as i have Peregrine Run in this at 20/1 antepost and 40/1 on Tombstone in the county ante-post. Tombstones Novice form last year especially the Supreme and his beating of Jezki recently are excellent pieces of form, especially for a horse rated 148. However he has never tackled a trip this long and there are atleast some small doubts over whether he'll stay and also if the drying ground will suit. Peregrine looks well handicapped himself with a mark of 142. If you look at the formlines of his Grade 2 win over C&D beating Wholestone by a length and west approach by 5 lengths. LTO at Warwick the ground was far to soft for him and after travelling well into the race found nothing an finished tamely. I'm willing to forgive this run as the ground today will suit much better and at a general 9/1 looks the most likely winner to me.
3:30 Douvan
The class horse in the race and on all known form should win this at a canter. The one i like as an Each Way play or in the without market is Garde La Victoire. Can't help but think connections have has this race in mind for a while with his recent freshen up over hurdles and handicap chase win. 33/1 general price and 17/2 in the without market.
4:10 Cantlow
For me the best priced banker of the meeting 7/2 available now has beaten almost every horse he faces today this season. most he faces better off at the weights as this is not a handicap however the two that do get a pull are cause of causes and bless the wings. CoC gets 2lbs but was beaten 40 lengths into 4th LTO and cannot see him reversing the form event yard in such rude health. Bless the wings is 10lbs better off with cantlow today for a 9 lengths beating. However he did so comfortably.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby benucci » Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:53 am

13:30 1:30 Cheltenham 25 EW Burbank (Daily Racing) 51 Paddy Power


"Burbank could have a live Each Way chance at big odds as Hendersons representive. If the market leaders fail to fire could be thereabouts at the finish."


14:50 2:50 Cheltenham 25 EW Bravissimo (Daily Racing) 41 William Hill


"Had a good run in Limerick and wasnt himself next start one could see that the way he started the race. If Mullins gets him fit again i feel might be overpriced as loos a type that likes a hill."

16:10 4:10 Cheltenham 25 EW Ballyboker Bridge (Daily Racing) 41 bet365


"Going with longshot Ballybroker Bridge whos last run might be not his best and could be judged more on his reappearance run which looked quite good behind todays fav Cantlow."

16:50 4:50 Cheltenham 25 EW Divin Bere (Daily Racing) 6 bet365


"Here i have to go with the fav as i had him as a bet last race and that was a remendous effort to beat Master Blueeyes on song fresh. Has immense scope for the hill and should have plenty of stamina for this race."

17:30 5:30 Cheltenham 25 EW Western Ryder (Daily Racing) 12 BetVictor


"The way he powered home from 40/1 horse in this Claimantakinforgan upthe Ascot Hill suggests to me this is a good horse and best of the British in this."
Blog 1 closed: Benuccis Paddock Selections
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby beepee1984 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:09 pm

1.30 Cheltenham – Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle
Neon Wolf the worthy favourite after 3 easy wins including a very easy win against Supreme Novice midfield runner Elgin, who then gave Supreme Novice 3rd a hard race prior to Cheltenham. Nothing to dislike about him.
Bacardys was pushed hard by Bunk Off Early who disappointed yesterday and the rest seem to have from behind Keeper Hill. Messire des Obeaux probably has most reason to reverse the form with the 8lb swing, but it is hard to fancy after last years Fred Winter. Willouhgby Court was taken close by Tommy Rapper who was beat by Keeper Hill.
Consul de Thaix was poor in last years Triumph and I find it hard to fancy here. Bon Papa wasn’t tested in his only win and hard to judge.
Shattered Love showed better than Kemboy in their races against Let’s Dance and only other defeat was to an unbeaten Mullins Horse could be an interesting outsider.
4 Pt Neon Wolf 15/8 SKY (Free Bet if Loses)
2 Pt Shattered Love 10/1 Betway (Free Bet if Loses)

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Shrews » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:18 pm

1.30 Mullins has been dominant in this race over the years and he can get his first winner of the meeting with Bacardy's who's a tough sort with Grade 1 winning form. Livelovelaugh who's another from his stable can also go well at a big price. He's thought to be a tough sort too and romped home from a 130 rated last time which could easily be a 145-150 rating.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Shrews » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:27 pm

I think Matt Chapman's going to lose his house if Neon Wolf doesn't win :D

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:45 pm

Had a 50-1 winner and place yesterday, continuing with that theme I have another for today's racing that looks way over priced, Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase.

Something has to fill the places but just because he is a big price does not make him '' overpriced '' , personally I cannot see anything that suggests he should be shorter than those odds. Of the outsiders Top Gamble appeals more to me @50/1 , sure he needs to improve on what we know of him and I am not suggesting for one minute that he can beat Douvan - but why stump up a suplementary fee of ( I think was ) £17,500 if you are not expecting an improvement showing on this season's efforts, not a forlorn hope of pinching a place.
When did I say that because he was a big price he was overpriced? Labaik was no 50-1 shot yesterday as I pointed out. Ordinary World wasn't either.
Sir Valentino is 50-1, he gave Special Tiara 6lb and lost by 1/2 length, would have won had it not been for a mistake. So you're telling me that Sir Valentino isn't overpriced when he is 50-1 and Special Tiara is less than half the price? He's double the price he should be and great value E/W, you're getting 12-1 on him placing, IMO he is a 4/5-1 shot to place.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby beepee1984 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:55 pm

2.10 RSA Novice Chases
Might Beat was a beaten Fav at the festival last year and may have the same feat again this year. He is very impressive at Doncaster and Kempton which are both tracks that favour the Speedy horse. Cheltenham takes more stamina and it has to be a concern that he has been beat twice at the course already.
Alpha Des Obeaux was 2nd in last years World Hurdle and it is that from that is the basis of his price, but he has 2 very poor efforts in 5 Chase races and returning from burst blood vessels I find it hard to be able to back at the price.
Acapella Bourgeois has found massive improvement in the last 2 races, but still has to find something with Bellshill. I have to forgive Bellshill latest after he hit the 1st was never at the races before falling. Massively improved by stepping up to 3 miles last season and we should expect his best run again for stepping up.
Whisper is a Cheltenham favourite and enjoys the course, but a couple of World Hurdle cracks show he falls short of the top class required. Despite this his 2 wins over fences including against Baron Alco a subsequent Grade 1 2nd keeps him off interest.
Royal Vacation destroyed a handicap field latest, but despite a Grade 1 success has over 30 lengths to find on the favourite.
O O Seven and Our Kaempfer form at the festival last year suggests that a Grade 1 here is out of reach.
2 Pt Bellshill 9/1 Coral
1 Pt Whisper 13/2 Coral
2.50 Cheltenham – Coral Cup
Tombstone is a worthy favourite. 4th in the Supreme last year which carries form over Supasundae and Mister Miyagi and easily beat a Champion Hurdle winner latest. Going to be tough to beat, but too short now for such a competitive race.
You can easily make a case for the next 2 as well. Tin Soldier has won both races since moving to Ireland and runs off a very low weight. Peregrine Run won a Grade 2 here beating Wholestone who has subsequently won 2 more Grade 2s.
In a race off the unexposed, both Automated and Modus are running off higher marks than being beat last season.
Taquin Du Seuil is in interesting runner who usually competes in top class chase races. Age is against him though.
2 Pt EW Peregrine Run 9/1 (using free bet from Sky)
3.30 – Queens Mother Chase
Douvan continues to look completely unbeatable, so again I will have to look for an Each Way value.
Special Tiara was 3rd last year and has faced both Fox Norton and Gods Own this season and God’s Own has been the better. Also Fox Norton was easily beaten by Altior who despite winning the Arkle made it look difficult. Gods Own was 4th last year, but improved massively at Aintree and Punchestown and that makes me think that he does not show his best here (despite a 2nd in the Arkle)
Garde La Victoire could be interesting, beat Fox Norton over CD in November 2015. Was going well when fell in the JLT Novice hurdle. 3 Times a winner here and only beaten this season in a Handicap giving weight and in a hurdle race over arguably too far this season.
1 Pt ew Garde La Victoire 28/1 Coral
4.10 – Cross Country
The Cross Country a true course specialist required here and probably explains why Cantlow is favourite having won here in December and 2nd in January, but they were both handicaps and small fields. The Festival race off level weights is different and Cantlow was beaten along way.
Any Currency won last year (would be shorter this year if a drug substance was not found) and was placed in January. Coleman back in the saddle, who is 5 places from 11 rides. If you do believe that drugs made a difference last year, Quantitativeeasing always runs well and 4th/3rd last year having struggled for room, carried out the year before when every chance – could be due a change of luck.
Ballybroker Bridge is also a big price for 2 runs over these fences both times only beaten by 14 length which include a 3rd place and in a level weight run and only a couple of lengths behind Cantlow this season and a massive price difference.
2 Pt EW Any Currency 16/1 (using Betway FreeBet from yesterday)
1PT EW Quantitativeeasing 18/1 Coral
1 Pt ew Ballybroker Bridge 33/1 Coral
4.50 Fred Winter
Juvenile Handicap a notorious hard race to decipher.
The favourite is Divin Bere whose only run in the UK came at the very fast track Huntingdon and now he runs at the stamina sapping Cheltenham, not enough for top weight. However Huntingdon form does transfer to Kempton which is where the runner up went on to win very impressive Grade 2.
However I am admitting defeat here as I have not followed anything for so long.
NO Bet
5.20 Champion Bumper
Carter McKay is Mullins choice in the Bumper. Beat a previous winner latest and a subsequent winner on debut which makes the form stand out and does have modest bumper/flat form in breeding. Already beat West Coast Dream and Bakmaj.
Cause Toujours won very impressive, but the placed horse went backwards next time out which leaves me in doubt over how good the form was. The win of Next Destination was only a small margin and again the placed horse went backwards next time out.
Someday beat a Mullins horse latest, but his run last year has a negative formline with Bakmaj through Blairs Cove who had been beaten by Carter McKay.
Debuchet form has practically no lines to draw from, but not many 4 year olds can win the bumper.
Western Ryder has won twice including at Listed level and beating a subsequent double novice hurdle winner and only beaten when giving away weight. Greatrex has a 28% strike rate in bumpers. Beat Imperial Eloquence and Claimantakinforgan.
Fayonagh showed massive improvement since joining Elliott winning a listed race by a mere 20 lengths and after Elliotts day 1, then worth shortlisting.
Irish Roe has won all 3 races so far after being brought for a mere £2k, but the dead heat listed win is only rated about 122 based on the other winner and a question has to be asked, what has he done for 4 months.
Form from Perfect Harmony is good and could be interesting, however breeding suggests he will be better for hurdling. Has form over My Mate Mark who is better bred for a NHF race.
Better Getalong looks a likely mud lover.
2Pt Carter McKay 5/1 Betway (Free Bet if Loses)
1 Pt Each Way Western Ryder 10/1 Coral ¼ 1-4

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby LiverpoolAC » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:04 pm

I think Matt Chapman's going to lose his house if Neon Wolf doesn't win :D
Yep could tell that was his big bet of the day

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Derbz87 » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:07 pm

I've seen a lot of grief given RE Neon Wolf on social media but he's by far and away the one to take from that race, the ITV Racing guys hit the nail on the head really experience won the day and Neon Wolf goes a foot or two higher over his hurdles than Willoughby Court, he's made a mistake at the last and just got bullied out slightly (not unfairly) at the finish. No guarentees but in the right hands to make a nice chaser. Very sad news RE Consul De Thaix, highs and lows of racing for Henderson/McManus after yesterday.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Shrews » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:24 pm

This comment from the OLBG preview night:

Malone: Might Bite won't win here, doesn't like a fight, wont like the hill. Flat tracks suit better.

He was so nearly right!

The loose horse get's Might Bite re-focused and Nico De Boinville manages to get him going again. Great ride by the jockey.

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