Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

nors
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Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby nors » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:26 pm

Please add any Cheltenham horses of note for Wednesday and help each other find winners.

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nors
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby nors » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:32 pm

I was a touch surprised with the success of Gordon Elliott on Tuesday, 3 winners is a great return.

1.30 Cheltenham Labaik 1st
2.50 Cheltenham Noble Endeavor 3rd
4.10 Cheltenham Apples Jade 1st
4.50 Cheltenham Tiger Roll 1st

Tomorrow looks just as strong for the trainer with

1.30 Cheltenham Brelade
1.30 Cheltenham Shattered Love
2.50 Cheltenham Carrig Cathal
2.50 Cheltenham Tombstone
2.50 Cheltenham Automated
4.10 Cheltenham Bless The Wings
4.10 Cheltenham Cause Of Causes
4.50 Cheltenham Dakota Moirette
4.50 Cheltenham Icario
5.30 Cheltenham Fayonagh

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Clearo611 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:44 pm

Tombstone looks so well handicapped it's almost too good to be true

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Robmull » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:09 pm

Tuesday wasn't a great day for me yesterday, although I thought Ballyandy was unlucky in the first race (not sure he would have won, but would certainly have been placed) and at least Petit Monchoir rewarded Each Way support, prior to the wonderfully brave APPLE’S JADE giving me my only winner of the day in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle.

Hopefully the situation will improve on Wednesday and I have finalised my trends based blogs with selections for the 4 Grade 1 races on the second day of the festival, which can be accessed via the Punters Guide (see link below) and will be using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse both of the handicap chases later this evening, prior to posting my selections in the tipping competition.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find and post some good winners on this thread today, which will put us all on the road to a profitable Cheltenham Festival.

Recent blogs:

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Punters Guide
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412199

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby m000ny » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:27 pm

Evening, long time since I posted on here!

What are people's thoughts on Shattered Love in the Neptune?

I was looking back in the Neptune thread on here and some strong valid points were made for Lets Dance before she was moved to the Mares Novice on Thursday. Considering LD beat SL by 2.75 with the latter carrying 3lb more can we also make a case for SL here. If you take her Aintree race out (flat race) then she has only been beaten by Airlie Beach and Lets Dance (both at the top of the market for Thurs), I can't say the rest of the form is rock solid especially as Asthuria has fallen twice against her, but the fact she beat Forge Meadow by 13L and that mare has won a Grade 2 at Naas by 8L looks fairly good.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:32 pm

If Tombstone get's around safely I think he absolutely hacks up. If you want to back him get on now because I can see him being smashed tomorrow, this horse finished 4th in the Supreme last year. Let's have a look at the rest of the top 5 of the race and their form since that race. Altior - Arkle winner. Min - Grade 1 winner. Buveur D'Air - Champion hurdle winner. Charbel - Had every chance in the Arkle before falling.

I just cannot be more bullish about a horse than this, especially given how well handicapped he looks. This is my NAP of the day and ones of the naps of the whole meeting.

Old Guard is worth a mention too, Nicholls said he liked this one if the ground was drying which it will be, is back on a very winnable mark after being too high last year and has a big turnaround in weights with Modus who beat him two starts ago and trip was too far LTO so has had excuses. 25-1 and worth a bit of e/w.
Last edited by Nunnylad on Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:37 pm

Evening, long time since I posted on here!

What are people's thoughts on Shattered Love in the Neptune?

I was looking back in the Neptune thread on here and some strong valid points were made for Lets Dance before she was moved to the Mares Novice on Thursday. Considering LD beat SL by 2.75 with the latter carrying 3lb more can we also make a case for SL here. If you take her Aintree race out (flat race) then she has only been beaten by Airlie Beach and Lets Dance (both at the top of the market for Thurs), I can't say the rest of the form is rock solid especially as Asthuria has fallen twice against her, but the fact she beat Forge Meadow by 13L and that mare has won a Grade 2 at Naas by 8L looks fairly good.
Definitely the e/w value in this race, the top two in the market look rock solid IMO but that doesn't mean that 1, this horse couldn't beat them and 2, this horse couldn't finish 3rd for the place. I've got E/W interest in her, plus have her in the tricast with top two in the market.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:39 pm

Had a 50-1 winner and place yesterday, continuing with that theme I have another for today's racing that looks way over priced, Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase. This horse will be held up off a strong pace set by Special Tiara and will come through the beaten horses late on. Was beaten by Special Tiara LTO when giving him weight and made a mistake two out which cost him victory. I was already on God's Own in the without market, but that is now too short for me to have E/W, this one represents great value. I've got this in forecasts tricasts with God's Own And Douvan, with the thinking that if Douvan were to fall or be brought down then these two could well be next in line.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:44 pm

The OLBG Tipster Panel did not too badly on the opening day with DannyCraig especially in good form. See wht they have in store for day 2:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412453

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby harryevie » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:04 pm

Tombstone looks so well handicapped it's almost too good to be true
Yes mate! Ive just come on here to ask if anyone thinks they can make a case for anything better handicapped or even well....in the same race??
Anyone?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby harryevie » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:09 pm

Had a 50-1 winner and place yesterday, continuing with that theme I have another for today's racing that looks way over priced, Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase. This horse will be held up off a strong pace set by Special Tiara and will come through the beaten horses late on. Was beaten by Special Tiara LTO when giving him weight and made a mistake two out which cost him victory. I was already on God's Own in the without market, but that is now too short for me to have E/W, this one represents great value. I've got this in forecasts tricasts with God's Own And Douvan, with the thinking that if Douvan were to fall or be brought down then these two could well be next in line.

I will walk to Cheltenham next year if Sir Valentino wins the Champion Chase!
And I don't say that lightly in my condition! :-)

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Wednesday 15th March Discussion

Postby harryevie » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:19 pm

If Tombstone get's around safely I think he absolutely hacks up. If you want to back him get on now because I can see him being smashed tomorrow, this horse finished 4th in the Supreme last year. Let's have a look at the rest of the top 5 of the race and their form since that race. Altior - Arkle winner. Min - Grade 1 winner. Buveur D'Air - Champion hurdle winner. Charbel - Had every chance in the Arkle before falling.

I just cannot be more bullish about a horse than this, especially given how well handicapped he looks. This is my NAP of the day and ones of the naps of the whole meeting.

Old Guard is worth a mention too, Nicholls said he liked this one if the ground was drying which it will be, is back on a very winnable mark after being too high last year and has a big turnaround in weights with Modus who beat him two starts ago and trip was too far LTO so has had excuses. 25-1 and worth a bit of e/w.


1st 1 Altior (IRE) N J Henderson 6 11-7 Nico de Boinville 4/1
In touch, headway 3 out, challenged on outside after next, ridden to lead before last, forged clear flat
2nd 7 6 Min (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-7 R Walsh 15/8f
Tracked leader, mistake 3rd, driven to lead briefly between last 2, ridden and one pace after last, no impression with winner flat opened 2/1
3rd 1½ 3 Buveur D'air (FR) N J Henderson 5 11-7 N D Fehily 10/1
Held up behind, headway after 3 out, chased front pair last, ridden and kept on same pace flat, no impression opened 8/1 touched 11/1
4th 4 13 Tombstone (IRE) G Elliott 6 11-7 B J Cooper 12/1
Tracked leaders early, mid-division, chased leaders 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to take 4th post, no impression opened 14/1
5th hd 4 Charbel (IRE) K C Bailey 5 11-7 t1 D Bass 16/1
Led, ridden and headed between last 2, one pace before last, well held after
6th 1¼ 7 Mister Miyagi (IRE) D Skelton 7 11-7 Ian Popham 33/1
Mistake 1st, towards rear, headway 2 out, soon chased leaders, kept on same pace, never on terms
7th s.h 12 Supasundae H de Bromhead 6 11-7 J J Burke 12/1
Tracked front pair, ridden and lost place after 2 out, kept on same pace before last
8th 1 10 Petit Mouchoir (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-7 h D J Mullins 20/1
In touch, driven to chase leaders after 2 out, ridden and kept on same pace from last, no impression opened 25/1 touched 16/1
9th 9 8 North Hill Harvey D Skelton 5 11-7 Harry Skelton 25/1
Mid-division, headway on outside after 3 out, mistake next, weakened before last
10th 3 14 William H Bonney A King 5 11-7 Wayne Hutchinson 50/1
Mid-division, outpaced 3 out, never on terms opened 40/1
11th 1½ 5 Holly Bush Henry (IRE) G McPherson 5 11-7 t Kielan Woods 40/1
Towards rear on outside, outpaced 3 out, never able to challenge
12th ¾ 9 Penglai Pavilion (USA) J P Ferguson 6 11-7 Aidan Coleman 33/1
Mid-division, outpaced 3 out, behind from next opened 25/1
13th 2¼ 2 Bellshill (IRE) W P Mullins 6 11-7 P Townend 11/1
Tracked leaders, not fluent 4th, lost place 2 out, soon weakened opened 14/1
14th hd 11 Silver Concorde D K Weld 8 11-7 D N Russell 16/1
Towards rear, outpaced after 3 out, never near leaders opened 14/1

Yes Nunny an amazing race.......Look who's 8th !

Also think it will get smashed and i'm off to get my Skybet freebet on Tombstone right now. The Elliot form should help a bit!

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