Stable Form Coming Into The Festival.

simoncoolhand
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Stable Form Coming Into The Festival.

Postby simoncoolhand » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:19 pm

There are a couple of big yards who's form coming into the festival is worrying.

Gordon Elliot has had 2 winners, 3 seconds and 4 thirds from 29 runners in March to date. That's a 7% strike rate for a trainer that usually has a strike rate in the high teens at least. His last 16 runners over hurdles have produced 0 winners and only 4 placed runners. I'm going to take a watching brief on his horses on day 1. Apples Jade is the big one to watch today as a pointer for the stables form.

Colin Tizzard is 0 fom 16 in March, although he has had a number of horses go close. But when you come in here with a number of big race fancied runners, I'd rather see the yard in decent form, having winners at the moment.

Nigel Twiston Davies's yard's strike rate in each month from last June to this January were as follows. June 16%, July 13%, August 45%, September 27%, October 32%, November 19%, December 17%, January 23%. But since January the stable have been having fewer winners. In February they went 4 from 63 for a 6% strike rate and this month so far they are 1 from 21 for a sub 5% strike rate. That's worrying for me.

I may add more to this list in the next few hours.

simoncoolhand
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Re: Stable Form Coming Into The Festival.

Postby simoncoolhand » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:48 pm

So much for Elliot's horses not running well :P

simoncoolhand
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Re: Stable Form Coming Into The Festival.

Postby simoncoolhand » Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:25 pm

I'm taking Elliot off the list, his couple of horses today have all ran well.

But Colin Tizzards runners haven't really looked in too good form, that said, they have been big priced runners.

One thing that I've never considered when looking at stable form in the run up to the festival is that over the winter months from September to probably mid to late January, even early February, trainers will have their festival horses running. Stable stars will be running in October, November and December, but could well be put away after Christmas for the festival. That could well impact their strike rate in the weeks immediately running up to the festival.

simoncoolhand
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Re: Stable Form Coming Into The Festival.

Postby simoncoolhand » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:11 pm

You'll have to add Willie Mullins to this list right now. I can't see him having a winner at the festival the way his horses are running.

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