I read his post as a general post about the form of the yard.. so in other words, it doesn't put him off backing ballyandy as the apparent poor yard form is more because their horses are too high in the handicaps than anything else such as a virus, which would obviously affect ballyandy whereas the weight issue doesn't as it's a non handicap.daveyhopdot
Ballyandy won a Handicap hurdle and thus, his handicap rating shot up, but the Supreme isn't a handicap and all horses (Mares excepted) carry the same weight, so the higher the rating, the better the chance if official ratings are to be used.
He is rated 20lb higher than Magna Carter but they both carry the same weight here
As for my best bets of the day.. I think the first race is ideal to to pick a couple out and use skybets offer for one of them as it refunds your first losing bet up to £20. It makes more sense to pick the bigger price as the money back offer horse, I've gone for River Wylde with that offer and backed Ballyandy as my proper bet. Ballyandy's form looks solid, this race is always raced at a frantic pace which he will enjoy and can see him picking these off late on. Heard a few good things about Melon but the problem is the lack of experience plus really short price, it's the sort of horse I'd happily back at 7s or 8s but not more than half that price, taking a chance of it being a good thing. I've got small interest in Labaik e/w that I haven't put in my tips on here as it's speculative but, this horse has refused to race 3 of his 6 starts so obviously that is a concern but if it jumps off with the rest of them this is no 50-1 shot and should be 16-1/20-1 IMO, could sneak into a place at a huge price. Elliot has said this does fantastic work at home, and I think it was Jamie Codd who said this horse is absolutely incredible just for some reason won't jump off.
As others have alluded to, the way to go is backing horses E/W in the Arkle. Also interesting to look at the without Altior market. Personally, i've put Royal Caviar and Ordinary World in forecasts/tricasts with Altior, and gone for both of those in the without market. Nobody wants to see a horse fall but at these prices it is worth putting a few cheap forecasts together with the thinking that Altior could fall/be brought down. Combining the two horses I mentioned gives huge odds so you can put a few combinations on very cheaply.
I think My Tent of Yours is still overpriced for the Champion Hurdle, finished 2nd 3 times at the festival, loves it here at this time of year and I think has a great chance of a place again and odds of 16-1 are very inviting in a very average Champion Hurdle this year. Henderson is a top trainer and will have him right for the festival, would be a great story to see this one romp home.
Also worth mentioning Lifeboat Mona in the Mares Hurdle, also 16-1 and also overpriced in my opinion. I think Limini is the likely winner here, has Apple's Jade well hold on their previous meeting where Limini won with some in hand. VVM has been struggling recently and that is partly down to having some very hard races in my personal opinion so I am taking her out of the equation. Apple's Jade likely will put up a good fight for second, and I can see Lifeboat Mona coming home third, which is decent profit at 1/4 odds of 16-1. I've also got tricasts with those 3 which is throws up some decent odds too.
Noble Endeavour is my NAP of the day, looks really well handicapped and is many peoples fancy for this. This horse went close 2 years ago in the Martin Pipe and fell last year while travelling strongly in the 4miler so will enjoy it around here and Davy Russell is a great jockey to have on board too. Has form winning big field handicaps as shown LTO, so plenty of positives in this ones favour. The price has somewhat gone but 8-1 still looks a nice price, especially with bookmakers paying 5 or 6 places. Assuming this stays upright it will finish top 5 I am confident of that.