Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 13th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:51 am

daveyhopdot

Ballyandy won a Handicap hurdle and thus, his handicap rating shot up, but the Supreme isn't a handicap and all horses (Mares excepted) carry the same weight, so the higher the rating, the better the chance if official ratings are to be used.

He is rated 20lb higher than Magna Carter but they both carry the same weight here
I read his post as a general post about the form of the yard.. so in other words, it doesn't put him off backing ballyandy as the apparent poor yard form is more because their horses are too high in the handicaps than anything else such as a virus, which would obviously affect ballyandy whereas the weight issue doesn't as it's a non handicap.

As for my best bets of the day.. I think the first race is ideal to to pick a couple out and use skybets offer for one of them as it refunds your first losing bet up to £20. It makes more sense to pick the bigger price as the money back offer horse, I've gone for River Wylde with that offer and backed Ballyandy as my proper bet. Ballyandy's form looks solid, this race is always raced at a frantic pace which he will enjoy and can see him picking these off late on. Heard a few good things about Melon but the problem is the lack of experience plus really short price, it's the sort of horse I'd happily back at 7s or 8s but not more than half that price, taking a chance of it being a good thing. I've got small interest in Labaik e/w that I haven't put in my tips on here as it's speculative but, this horse has refused to race 3 of his 6 starts so obviously that is a concern but if it jumps off with the rest of them this is no 50-1 shot and should be 16-1/20-1 IMO, could sneak into a place at a huge price. Elliot has said this does fantastic work at home, and I think it was Jamie Codd who said this horse is absolutely incredible just for some reason won't jump off.

As others have alluded to, the way to go is backing horses E/W in the Arkle. Also interesting to look at the without Altior market. Personally, i've put Royal Caviar and Ordinary World in forecasts/tricasts with Altior, and gone for both of those in the without market. Nobody wants to see a horse fall but at these prices it is worth putting a few cheap forecasts together with the thinking that Altior could fall/be brought down. Combining the two horses I mentioned gives huge odds so you can put a few combinations on very cheaply.

I think My Tent of Yours is still overpriced for the Champion Hurdle, finished 2nd 3 times at the festival, loves it here at this time of year and I think has a great chance of a place again and odds of 16-1 are very inviting in a very average Champion Hurdle this year. Henderson is a top trainer and will have him right for the festival, would be a great story to see this one romp home.

Also worth mentioning Lifeboat Mona in the Mares Hurdle, also 16-1 and also overpriced in my opinion. I think Limini is the likely winner here, has Apple's Jade well hold on their previous meeting where Limini won with some in hand. VVM has been struggling recently and that is partly down to having some very hard races in my personal opinion so I am taking her out of the equation. Apple's Jade likely will put up a good fight for second, and I can see Lifeboat Mona coming home third, which is decent profit at 1/4 odds of 16-1. I've also got tricasts with those 3 which is throws up some decent odds too.

Noble Endeavour is my NAP of the day, looks really well handicapped and is many peoples fancy for this. This horse went close 2 years ago in the Martin Pipe and fell last year while travelling strongly in the 4miler so will enjoy it around here and Davy Russell is a great jockey to have on board too. Has form winning big field handicaps as shown LTO, so plenty of positives in this ones favour. The price has somewhat gone but 8-1 still looks a nice price, especially with bookmakers paying 5 or 6 places. Assuming this stays upright it will finish top 5 I am confident of that.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby colloid » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:02 am

need many more picks, ideas sharp plays, overlay possibilities. thanks in advance! learning the hurdles in America.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:29 am

I know some people have doubts about MELON and rightly so due to his lack of experience but if you look at the race he ran, he just went for a trot around the track ran away from the field by 10L and Ruby didn’t use the whip not even once. The horse got class and it going to show today. I made it my NAP.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:31 am

No worries, take your time, at first, its hard to get your head around, but once you suss it, it's pretty easy and you will wonder what all the fuss was about!!!!

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Nunnylad » Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:39 am

I know some people have doubts about MELON and rightly so due to his lack of experience but if you look at the race he ran, he just went for a trot around the track ran away from the field by 10L and Ruby didn’t use the whip not even once. The horse got class and it going to show today. I made it my NAP.
Just looking at the horses he has beaten, the horse that finished 10l behind in 2nd was himself 10l clear of 3rd but has won ONCE in TWELVE races and lost by 50l a couple of days ago in a maiden hurdle.

So in my opinion it is no wonder Melon looked so good facing the calibre of horses he did that day. Now of course, it could be that Melon is class but going off everything that we know, I could never have Melon and certainly not NAP him. Good luck with your bet, everyone is entitled to their own opinion of course.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby onceuponatime » Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:29 am

1.30 MELON will be the winner in my eyes, only 1 run but the style of the win was very impressive, never of the bridle and what I liked most was it's low fast jumping what I mean is, it did not spend much time in the air, looked very fast over it's hurdles and you need that in this race as they usually go a very good gallop. Also being by Medicean I expect there to be some good flat speed there at the end and that turn of foot could prove crucial. Yes you have to stay up the hill but in the supreme I feel you have to have that turn of foot at the end, that bit of flat speed and I dont think Ballyandy has that and would be suited by further, look at when it got beat by Messire Des Obeaux at Sandown over 20f if anything Ballandy wanted even further was keeping on again at the finish. I think the biggest danger to Melon is the stablemate Bunk Off Early who I can see forcing the pace and does travel very nice in it's races and was only outbattled by a nice type lto over further and will prove very hard to peg back but I think it could set it up perfect for the strong travelling Melon who can put it's turn of foot to good effect at the end and scoot clear.

As for the 2.10 race it is only a race to watch, as bar any accidents nothing will get near Altior who looks something special.

2.50 GO CONQUER E/W is my selection for the Jonjo O'neill yard who have a very good record in this race winning it 3 times in the last 8 years and this race usually goes to a horse under 11-0 and my selection gets in of a nice weight 10-8 and also 8yo's have a good record in the race so also fits the bill there. Also the horses 2nd behind Double Shuffle looks strong form with the latter just being denied a grade 3 victory nto. Also when my selection was beaten it looked as if a stiffer track would suit, just got that but outpaced at Kempton and I think Cheltenham could bring out the best in Go Conquer who looks a thorough stayer and I can really see this one staying on strongly through tired horses at the finish and powering up the hill.

3.30 Petit Mouchoir is my selection after hours of studying this race yesterday I believe I now have the winner. This horse is very keen in it's races and tends to make the running in most of it's races but does not have to race that way can sit behind the lead aswel if The New One decides to lead wich is a strong possibility. I think my selection is improving fast and has some strong form from last April when 2nd in Punchestown Novice Champion hurdle only just being denied by ½l by the smart Dont Touch It and Brain Power was a further 4½l behind my selection and well beaten off and even further back was Yorkhill and that form looks very good to me and given my selection has improved a lot since then he is a serious horse and I believe will show that today and the fact he is fast over his hurdles and does not hang around in the air is also a big advantage in a champion hurdle. I could not back Yanworth in a million years for this race, it does not jump well enough, hangs about too much in the air over its hurdles and will be taken out of it's comfort zone in a fast hectic race like a champion hurdle and also the jockey aboard has never rode the horse in a race before and the record for jockeys riding a horse for 1st time in this race is 0/38. I think the biggest dangers will come from Moon Racer and Footpad with the latter running on well behind my selection last time but is a bit flattered by that given my selection was in a battle from a long way out with Nichols Canyon wich set it up for a late closer like Footpad but I dont see that 1 getting as close today but I do think it can run on for a place a bit like it did here last year in the Triumph Hurdle. Moon Racer is the biggest danger though as loves it round cheltenham and never runs a bad race but I think Petit is a real hardy battler and can get the better of Moon Racer up the hill today.

4.10 Vroum Vroum Mag all day long for me in this one, as some of you guys have already said if Limini was really that good it would went for the weak renewal of the champion hurdle and the fact Mullins decides to put Mag in here says he aint that confident of Liminis chances and it also helps to get them a nice price for Mag ;) who i think will shorted rite up before the off time. Mag is the proven champion in this race and although not very impressive lto looked in need of that run and Cheltenham will have been her prime target all along, so I wont read too much into the last run at all and I fully expect her to show her true best today on a track that suits her so well, she stays so strongly and that will be the telling factor up the hill today. The current price of 3/1 is a real gift in my eyes and I fully expect her to deliver the goods. Limini was well beaten by Whiteout and I think Vroum would have no trouble beating that 1 and the only danger I see to Mag is Apples Jade who is a smart horse her self and can fill 2nd spot and I Briery Queen can grab 3rd sport with the track and conditions ideal for her I can see her running a big race at a nice price.

4.50 Tiger Roll e/w, Gordon Elliot knows exactly what is required to win this race having done so on more than 1 occasion in the last few years and this horse is already a past festival winner who loves the hill and the good ground and I watched her here in October when a beaten favourite but she was not beaten far and jumped slow and made a mistake and that was not her true running but looked more of a feeler for this race today and today's bigger field I feel will suit much better just like it did at Limerick in October when tucked away in mid-division before making stealthy headway to win easily. Also the jockey aboard today Ms Lisa O'Neill is very useful she has had 3 rides this season with 2 them winning, she clearly knows how to get the job done and that makes me even more confident of a big run from a more than capable jockey on a proven Cheltenham horse that will relish today's conditions.

In the finally the the 5.30 DOUBLE W'S e/w looks a strong bet to me, the horse has ran well here in the past, loves good ground, loves a stiff track with good runs here and a win at Carlisle and a good run at Newcastle and Hexham, stiff tracks clearly suit this horse and the fact it kept on strongly over 2m4f at Hexham tells me the step back up in trip today here will suit perfect and I can really see this once coming through strongly at the finish and powering up the hill. Brian Hughes is the jockey aboard and he notched up a winner at the festival last year and I think this is his best chance this time around and he is riding amazing at the moment with winners right left and centre. I think this is 1 of the strongest e/w bets of the day, I cant see it out the frame and has a massive chance of winning.


Good luck all and if have any opinions on my views above then please let me know your opinions :win:

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby jaydubs » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:10 am

Looking at a trend last night...

Only 2 of the last 12 Supreme winners had raced beyond 2m2f that season...

Bally andy has run over 2m4f this year..

Bally andy has actually only won 1 of its 4 hurdle races ....off a lenient handicap mark.. against mid 130 rated horses.... is this really a supreme winner?

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby marksutherland » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:00 am

Continuing with the chat of the Supreme Novice Hurdle, 2 that have me really intrigued are Labaik & Glaring. Surely if Gordon has ironed out Labaiks starting issues then there's no way this horse will be 50/1 in running. Gordons only runner in the Supreme too, surely that says a lot too? Glaring I feel is another that is over priced at 66/1, who knows what Glaring would of done last time out if it never clouted the second last flight after travelling into the race strongly. What price would Glaring be if it was trained by say N Henderson or P Nicholls? At least half what it is now I'd say.
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:12 am

Looking at a trend last night...

Only 2 of the last 12 Supreme winners had raced beyond 2m2f that season...

Bally andy has run over 2m4f this year..

Bally andy has actually only won 1 of its 4 hurdle races ....off a lenient handicap mark.. against mid 130 rated horses.... is this really a supreme winner?
Well he's rated 147 now. I don't think anyone doubts he was well handicapped in the Betfair but he was still a maiden over timber and in the hustle and bustle of a big field he settled well and finished the race.

Ratings at this point are still hard to gauge in their true worth. Elgin is rated 143 (I actually like him Each Way) and River Wylde 144 yet he latter held the former reasonably comfortably last time - is there only a lb between them? More likely you need to look at what they were raised - 1lb for the former, 9lb for the latter. Ballyandy improved 12lbs according the official ratings so make of it what you will.


Regarding the distance trend. How many trainers aiming for a Supreme do try over further beforehand? In Ballyandy's case it's clear the Neptune was at least an option.
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Shrews » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:17 am

I think those at the top at the market have been discussed to death so here's a few at 18/1+ that I've backed for anybody looking for non-principals with a chance.

The Arkle (2.10) - Ordinary World 50/1
It's a ridiculous price on the favourite considering he's only a novice. As good as his hurdles form is, he will still be prone to making errors in this sphere and one of the others who jumps better on the day could well take advantage. Henry De Bromhead has a win and 2nd to his name over the last 7 years and this horse was a 9l 2nd to Min at Leopardstown over the Christmas period which may be good enough to get involved here. Excellent Cheltenham Festival jockey Davey Russell is riding and I can see him having a good meeting.

The Arkle (2.10) - Royal Caviar 20/1
Willie Mullins has a decent record in this and of course Ruby Walsh too. The horse looked like he was going to win at Leopardstown last time out when falling at the last. I believe if he'd gone away and won by 5l+ then he wouldn't be 20/1 here today and for a Mullins/Walsh entry this one has gone under the radar. Great ew price.

Ultima 3m 1f Chase (2.50) Pilgrims Bay 25/1
My choice in this has been Holywell due to his fantastic Festival record but last year he was beat by a well managed, well handicapped horse and could be vulnerable to one again. This horse is from the Neil Mullholland stable who were third last year and won in 2015. The horse is an improving type and won the 56k BetBright Chase at Kempton in December on good ground. He's up 8lb for that, but may still have a lot more to offer.

Champion Hurdle (3:30) Footpad 20/1
Mullins and Walsh have been dominant in this with a 1-1-4-1-3-1 over the last 6 years and in my view we really shouldn't be looking any further for an ew based on that. Now Ruby has chosen this horse it could well be that the stable quietly fancy their chances here. Let's not forget that both Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag had chances to emulate Annie Power but the stable have chosen to send them to the Mares instead. My view is that if they were better than Footpad they'd be running in this! Ruby also had the choice of choosing Group 1 Flat winner Wicklow Brave but still decided upon this one. Maybe the horse is showing something at home that's given Mullins confidence that he has a potential winner ? The horse needs to improve on what he has shown so far including his run in the Triumph last year but he's always been well regarded and is probably a useful type.

Champion Hurdle (3:30) My Tent Or Yours 18/1
I will keep saying it! This horse returned last year after nearly two years out, to finish 2nd to an excellent mare who received 7lb and broke the course record. He was 4l adrift of Annie Power but what a tremendous run given the circumstances. With VVM now gone and no horse receiving 7lb he meets his rivals on levels and I doubt any of this field would've got so close to Annie Power and all he really needs to do is to repeat that same form. The question marks surround whether he's had his chances and may be on the decline given his hardly inspiring form over the winter. But my view is that we can forget those races, they are and were just preps for this...and ultimately that fitness edge has to be a better preparation than last year.

4m NH chase (4:50) Arbre De Vie 20/1
It pays to side with the best amateurs in this one, and 2nd only to Derek O'Connor in this race over the last 7 years appears to be Katy Walsh who had a win in 2010 with Poker De Sivola and has finished 2nd and 3rd last twice ( for three different trainers). This horse is trained by Willie Mullins and on his only try at 3m he finished 4th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett and could well relish this extra test of stamina. Katy will know she has an excellent chance on a horse who is sure to be fit and ready with a jockey who knows what she is doing.

2m 4f Novice Chase (5.30) Hammersly Lake 18/1
Nicky Henderson has had a good record in this race over the years (no runners last year) and runs two in this (the other being Gold Present). I like the look of this one with his effort at Ascot where he beat Top Notch looking like decent form in the context of this race and he reverts to that distance (less a furlong) for this. It could well be that over this distance he's a little unexposed but is actually good enough to beat these (was also 6th in the Coral Cup last year).

Good luck if you're having a bet! I'm quietly confident of getting all 28 Festival winners here :D

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby The Market Man » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:29 am

I'm with you on Arbre De Vie, Shrews.

Mullins and Katie Walsh finished third in the race last year and Arbre De Vie is in great hands today. Each Way the first four with some bookies and ADV has been running in decent company over inadequate trips thus far over fences.

No idea how Edwulf get his current rating of 159

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby millersteve » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:03 am

Supreme Novices Hurdle
I already have an EW on Melon at 20/1 but I am a little concerned at the form from his only race and whether his jumping will hold up in the likely strong gallop today, so looking for a saver bet in this.
Ballyandy travelled and jumped well in the Betfair Hurdle giving the impression that he will benefit for the strong pace that this race is usually run at. Previously he was outstayed in the Winter Novices Hurdle over 2m 4f but the form of that race has worked out with the winner Messire Des Obeaux going on to grab the Challow Novices Hurdle. Ballyandy has festival form having won last season’s Champion Bumper and whilst some concern has to be raised as to stable form he should be in the mix here.

Ultima Handicap Chase
Henri Parry Morgan hasn’t been as progressive as he was last season but he ticks a few boxes for this race. Second season chaser, wearing headgear, ran in the Cleeve Hurdle and is a hold up type and those usually come through by sitting off a strong pace. He has to prove he can jump around here after his fall 4 out in January but he was going well up to that point.

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