Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

nors
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Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby nors » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:14 pm

Please add any horses of interest or anything you have gleaned to help other members for races on TUESDAY 13th at Cheltenham, for non Cheltenham races click here for the Regular Horse Racing Discussion Thread.

Any market moves.
Significant jockey bookings.
Whipspers you have heard.
Research you have undertaken.
Cheltenham results and talking points, collateral form.
Non runners

Gman84
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:38 pm

The OLBG Tipster Panel Blog is up and running for Day 1 - individual and collective picks for each race and some multiple bets to consider:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412446
Read my Blogs by clicking here.

Robmull
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Robmull » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:24 pm

I have finalised my trends based blogs with selections for the 4 Grade 1 races on the first day of the festival, which can be accessed via the Punters Guide (see link below) and will be using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse both of the handicap chases later this evening, prior to posting my selections in the tipping competition.

However, that leaves me to consider the National Hunt Chase (4.55) over 4 miles for Amateur Jockeys.

I have mentioned 3 of the jockeys as being profitable to follow in the Punters Guide, namely Jamie Codd, Derek O’Connor and Mr M Legg and would not be surprised if any one of them rode the winner of this race.

However, there is one trainer that I have the greatest respect for and that is Margaret Mullins, who has a recent record at Cheltenham of 2 winners from just 4 runners (LSP 37.00 pts) and never seems to send over a horse from Ireland just to have a runner at the festival.

She runs MARTELLO TOWER in this event, who is a previous festival winner having won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle back in 2015 and whilst his form over fences has been a bit patchy (1 win from 4 starts) and he has been well beaten on his last 2 attempts, he should relish every yard of the 4 mile trip, as he stays longer than the mother in law (bless her) and will hopefully be plugging on at the finish when many of his rivals will have cried enough.

At current best odds of 14/1 BOG with Coral (offering 1/4 odds on 4 places), MARTELLO TOWER appeals as a sporting Each Way wager.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find and post some good winners on this thread today, which will put us all on the road to a profitable Cheltenham Festival.

Recent blogs:

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Punters Guide – Updated on 8 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412199

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby The Market Man » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:20 pm

I think Ballyandy should win tomorrow but the form of the yard is a major concern : Twiston Davies strike rate in January was 23 %. It dropped to 6% in February and he's had just one winner from nineteen runners so far in March. However :

River Wylde won the Dovecote but they started slowly and it's a historically poor prep for the Supreme
Melon lacks experience and form
Beyond Conceit is 8 and Cheltenham might not suit
Bunk Off Early appeared to tire in the Deloitte, despite travelling well until the turned into the straight.

So i'm having Ballyandy and hoping he's in the same or better form as Newbury. He possess strong course form, ground conditions will suit and the pace won't be an issue.

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:35 pm

Top stuff Robmull, will give that a read

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:48 pm

Regardless of how good we all think Altior is and if he stays up he wins, but at his current price, he just cannot be backable.

However, as it's a 9 horse race and we have 2 places to play with for EW betting purposes.

Looking at the best prices available on the remaining 8 runners, we can see that is an EW betting bonanza.

Charbel - 12/1 (8/1 lowest)
Royal Caviar - 20/1 (12/1 lowest)
Cloudy Dream - 25/1 (14/1 lowest)
Some Plan - 28/1 (18/1 lowest)
Forest Bihan - 25/1 (16/1 lowest)
A Hare Breath - 50/1 (25/1 lowest)
Ordinary World - 50/1 (33/1 lowest)
Three Stars - 100/1 (50/1 lowest)

With most firms offering 1/4 odds a place, you can double your money or more by backing a placed horse.

Charbel pays 3/1 for a place on the EW market, doubling your initial stake if he finishes 2nd or 3rd

If like me, you will probably be backing something EW in this race, then please SHOP around for the best price on your fancy, there are plenty of Bookie Offers available, most including some fantastic free bets and bonuses..

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Gman84 » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:19 pm

I think Ballyandy should win tomorrow but the form of the yard is a major concern : Twiston Davies strike rate in January was 23 %. It dropped to 6% in February and he's had just one winner from nineteen runners so far in March. However :

River Wylde won the Dovecote but they started slowly and it's a historically poor prep for the Supreme
Melon lacks experience and form
Beyond Conceit is 8 and Cheltenham might not suit
Bunk Off Early appeared to tire in the Deloitte, despite travelling well until the turned into the straight.

So i'm having Ballyandy and hoping he's in the same or better form as Newbury. He possess strong course form, ground conditions will suit and the pace won't be an issue.
I'm with you TMM. I think he'll be best equiped to deal with the frantic pace this race is usually run and he he'll still have something to give when the rest are feeling the pinch. Melon could be anything and you have to respect Mullins' record in this race but it feels a little like he's throwing mud to see what sticks to a point. He's always come a bit mob handed but I could see a big run from any of his others and an interview later with the usual "we knew he was a good horse etc". Bunk Off Early out of Zebedee though - if he finds up the hill I want a paternity test!!

The one I like at a price is Elgin, he's got the right mix of experience and ability, he travels well, hhe just needs to jump a bit slicker. If he can he might just get near the places at a price.


And Micko70 makes a great point. I topped up a few accounts today so I can play around with prices. SkyBet have already opened the gates with their first race offer but they have also gone 6 places on the Ultima and 4 places on the Champion Hurdle (subject to a certain amount of runners). bet365 were also 5 places on the Ultima I think too so if you do like something Each Way then try and find the best possible odds/Each Way terms.

I've had a shop round this evening for the Arkle and I'm doing Cloudy Dream e/w at 25's with bet365. I could go 20's with Paddy Power as they give the win stake part back as a free bet if second but they are only a fifth the odds so I'm better off with the better price and terms at bet365.
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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby daveyhopdot » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:58 am

"I think Ballyandy should win tomorrow but the form of the yard is a major concern : Twiston Davies strike rate in January was 23 %. It dropped to 6% in February and he's had just one winner from nineteen runners so far in March. However :

River Wylde won the Dovecote but they started slowly and it's a historically poor prep for the Supreme
Melon lacks experience and form
Beyond Conceit is 8 and Cheltenham might not suit
Bunk Off Early appeared to tire in the Deloitte, despite travelling well until the turned into the straight.

So i'm having Ballyandy and hoping he's in the same or better form as Newbury. He possess strong course form, ground conditions will suit and the pace won't be an issue."

I'm sure I heard Sam Twiston Davies on The Opening show or at the races can't remember which, saying that the horses had been winning and hence had gone up a lot in the weights so they weren't really out of form they were a victim of there own success so to speak, thus it wouldn't put me off backing it :win:

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:03 am

daveyhopdot

Ballyandy won a Handicap hurdle and thus, his handicap rating shot up, but the Supreme isn't a handicap and all horses (Mares excepted) carry the same weight, so the higher the rating, the better the chance if official ratings are to be used.

He is rated 20lb higher than Magna Carter but they both carry the same weight here

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:26 am

Just a little correction on the thread title "Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 13th March Discussion"
Tuesday is the "14th"

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby Micko70 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:31 am

Just a little correction on the thread title "Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 13th March Discussion"
Tuesday is the "14th"
Thanks for that

Perhaps you might want to contribute more, go on, you know you want to

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Re: Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 14th March Discussion

Postby AceKing » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:46 am

Just a little correction on the thread title "Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 13th March Discussion"
Tuesday is the "14th"
Thanks for that

Perhaps you might want to contribute more, go on, you know you want to
I will in time, bit new around here, just getting familiar with things :)

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