How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Shrews
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How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:02 pm

I finished 2nd in 2015 (should've won, but I'll talk about that later) and finished 46th last year (would've done better if I hadn't 'gone for it' on the last day).

There are some basics here.

1. You simply must go for long shots in races where long shots have a chance. You will likely only be joined by a select few others who have the horse, especially in the bigger field handicaps.
2. You must pick favourites in races where the favourites are short odds to win. In 2015 I lost by 11 points, one extra favourite would've seen me a winner.
3. You must keep going for all four days, even if you're miles behind on the last day. Many people just don't bother on the last day and you can easily sieve through the pack.

Trainers and jockeys
It is a must to pick trainers and jockeys who traditionally do well at the festival for your stable. Equally long shots for these stables should be chosen, but only in races where they traditionally do well. Big odds can be found where top trainers have a poor first few days, only to hit form later in the week by winning races they traditionally do well in! Equally, stables who do well early in the week, can be overbet later in the week in races they traditionally don't do well in!

I have provided some information on what those races might be on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=58833

Horses
There are some horses who are 'festival' horses. They might not show anything all year long but then come alive for one day in March. These should be chosen, regardless of price.

Stables
Obviously trainers and their stable jockeys need to match to 'double up' on scores i.e Mullins and Walsh, no point picking Henderson and Scudamore. From the top group (if that's what the game is this year) you should only consider Mullins or Henderson for the trainers. Two stables for Mullins and one for Henderson (if we get three again) or all three for Mullins if you are going all eggs in one basket.

Luck and the long shots
You could pick five 3/1 winners, but that just won't cut it against someone who has one 20/1 winner. Because of the numbers of players in the game, somebody WILL hit at least one 20/1 winner especially on the last day where people have nothing to lose. People are less inclined to go for it on the first two days where they will be trying to build a foundation to build on. This is the wrong tactic. You have to aim for those 20/1+ long shots and hope you get 'lucky' in every race barring the ones with short price 'obvious' favourites.

By this strategy, others will see you as lucky, but in reality it's a strategic ploy and nothing lucky at all!

More to come, once the competition details have been announced
Last edited by Shrews on Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:06 pm

Last years details (for comparison purposes)

THE GAME

How to play
The Cheltenham Festival, one of racing’s greatest events takes place from March 15 to 18, and you can add to the excitement with the Telegraph's FREE TO PLAY Fantasy Cheltenham game for the chance to win £1,000 in cash.
Become a Fantasy Owner by selecting your stable of jockeys and trainers and then picking a single horse in each of the 28 Festival races.
The three jockeys and three trainers that you choose score points for you every time they have a winner or placed horse in each of the Festival's 28 races and double points for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase (3.30pm on Friday).
You’ll also start with 28 betting 'credits', one to use in each race throughout the four day festival. You will score additional points every time your chosen horse wins or is placed in a race.
The aim of the game is to score the highest number of points in order to win the first prize of £1,000 in cash.
Register your free entry now. You can make changes to your stable of jockeys and trainers up to the scheduled start time of the first race of the Festival (1.30pm on Tuesday, March 15). You can make your race selections right up to the scheduled start time of each race.
Good luck!
Selecting a stable
Create a stable of three jockeys and three trainers from the selection list. Each jockey has been rated from 1-20 and each trainer from 1-20.
The combined rating of your three jockeys must add up to at least 26.
The combined rating of your three trainers must add up to at least 26.
As the runners for each race are announced, you can start to use your betting credits to select a horse in as many of the Festival's 28 races as you wish.
Scoring Points
Please note: all points are doubled for The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3.30 on Friday):
Jockeys & Trainers
Your 3 Jockeys and 3 Trainers will score points as follows.
• Race Win: 40 points
• Race Place*: 10 points
Horses
Your selected horse in each race will score points as follows:
Race Win:
10 times the Coral Starting Price (SP)
E.g. SP of 6-1? Score 10 times the starting price: 10 x 6 = 60 points.
Race Place*:
3 times the Coral Starting Price (SP)
E.g. SP of 5/2? Score 3 times the starting price: 3 x 2.5 = 7.5 points.
* Place applies as follows:
• 5 to 7 runners: place applies to 2nd only
• 8 or more horses: place applies to 2nd and 3rd
• In Handicap Races with 16 or more runners: place applies to 2nd, 3rd and 4th
• 4 or less horses: no place applies
Dead Heat
In the event of a dead heat for any win or place position, for the purposes of the game, all dead heated horses will score full win and place points.
Unused Credits
For each race you don't select a horse, you will lose 5 points. So don't miss a race!
In the event that a non-runner is selected, the credit will be considered to have been used.


Jockeys
1 Ruby Walsh 18 (races) 340 (points)
3 Bryan Cooper 17 160
4 Sam Twiston-Davies 18 130
8 Davy Russell 13 130
2 Barry Geraghty 17 100
10 Tom Scudamore 11 100
7 Nico de Boinville 12 90
9 Noel Fehily 15 60
16 Harry Skelton 11 50
12 Aidan Coleman 15 40
17 Brian Hughes 12 40
5 Richard Johnson 18 20
6 Paul Townend 11 20
11 Wayne Hutchinson 7 10
14 Paddy Brennan 6 10
15 Daryl Jacob 8 10
18 Jonathan Burke 10 10
19 Nick Scholfield 7 10
13 Patrick Mullins 6 0
20 Leighton Aspell 3 0

Trainers

1 Willie Mullins 61 430
4 Gordon Elliott 19 200
3 Paul Nicholls 35 150
2 Nicky Henderson 37 140
12 Nigel Twiston-Davies 14 100
11 Dan Skelton 16 70
9 David Pipe 11 60
8 Jonjo O'Neill 22 60
6 Colin Tizzard 10 50
10 Harry Fry 5 40
7 Philip Hobbs 17 30
17 Mrs John Harrington 5 20
14 Henry De Bromhead 11 20
5 Alan King 16 20
20 Neil Mulholland 8 10
18 Gary Moore 5 10
13 Venetia Williams 11 10
19 Charlie Longsdon 7 0
16 Evan Williams 5 0
15 John Ferguson 12 0

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:07 pm

Reserved for this years details

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:38 pm

I used to try the At The Races competitions for the Festival but I don't bother now.

I will echo your advice of picking big prices, because that is what I found when checking results on the ATR competition. It didn't matter WHAT price a winner was in any Race, be it 50/1 there was always a few people who had the maximum 50pts from the 100pts allotted on the winner as a straight up win.

I suppose that's the nature of betting with "Free" points. Selectors can be gung ho in their approach. Bookies should be thankful these people are not betting with real cash, as they would be getting carved up.

Sometimes the points gained from the 100 starting banks would be well into the 2000-3000 range, the sort of thing even the best punter in the world would be realising only in their wildest, not to mention wettest, dreams, yet it happens with incredible regularity. Who are these punting savants? Do bookmakers have them on a blacklist? Why aren't they emailing me their incredibly priced Naps?

Is this phenomonon:-

A) A pure racket?
B) A conspiracy?
C) Evidence of second sight?
D) Genuine Billion To One coincidence?
The path is clear though no eyes can see the course laid down long before

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:01 pm

It all comes down to having that long-priced strategy and sticking with it throughout the four days I'd guess.

1 winner and that's good selecting of a long-shot
2 winners and that's probably excellent selecting

Anything more than that is borderline 'luck' (but still based around a winning strategy)

i.e with luck defined as black or red on a roulette wheel and your selection coming in three times on the run. There's no rhyme or reason to it other than you chose the strategy of picking a game that was 50/50.

Equally in these types of competitions a player may spot ten horses in a race at 20/1, but narrow down those horses into the no-chancers and the maybe's, and then the some of the maybe's into competitors. The strategy however is to still ignore anything under 20/1. A bit like backing without the favourite market and selecting from what is left.

In the real betting world I would guess these successful competition players would talk themselves out of betting over 20/1 and chose one at a lesser price instead.

My own personal view would be to only look in the under 20/1 bracket if all those over 20/1 could not be narrowed down into 'maybe's'. Sometimes there are good 20/1's and other times there are 20/1's that seem to have no chance whatsoever.

It can be done but the strategy is to only consider the outsiders, get your narrowing down as good as you can get it, and hope the percentages work for you on a particular day. As always, these are improved by better form study, knowledge, well-being at the time of selection etc and I would guess the ones winning the ATR competition have the longshot strategy right and aren't just randomly selecting either.

As always, given the numbers involved who are playing the game, there will always be a few who are hitting the right horses over four days. If they are doing it year-on-year then we can see that the strategy is working well and they have an advantage over the average competition player who either hasn't worked out the strategy yet or just doesn't know horses.

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby jaydubs » Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:02 pm

LB I have won one of the ATR wolves Dundalk comps...and 500 quid....

As shrews says ...you have to take the shorties that you consider will win but take your chance in the open races to find them 1 or 2 big priced winners....

You only have to be right once..

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby man o bong » Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:23 pm

Is this phenomonon:-

A) A pure racket?
B) A conspiracy?
C) Evidence of second sight?
D) Genuine Billion To One coincidence?
It's a combination of playing the probability game with a little luck thrown in


If you take the game for what it is, consider what other people are doing in your strategy as well as being adept at putting all these probabilities together, you will be approaching "the game" in a very different way than 95-99% of people - This in itself will give you an edge, A little luck thrown in (You make your own luck of course), and the bounty is there for the taking. You can win the Scoop 6 with 6 favourites, but you wont be taking much home, find a way on the day the coupons killers come in to have them covered and you'll get a much bigger slice of the pie.

I have two examples of playing the game when winning the daily £1000 prize on Bodugi Cheltenham special a few years ago, I did pick 5 winners of the 7 races on the day but even then, had I not picked a 40/1 winner i would not have picked up that prize. in fact, Had i missed that one and got all of the other 6 right I would have been some way down the pecking order

This also worked against me, as there was a bonus £1000 up for grabs on the Friday for whoever got the biggest points haul on a single day, and from my Tuesday it didn't look possible that it could be beaten, that was until successive 16/1 winners following a 33/1 and something like an 8/7 to give four winners from seven races eclipsed my total.

So yeah, first step would surely be to go against the crowd for at least some of the journey!
When you're told you can't do something, do it and prove them wrong

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby twobusty » Thu Feb 23, 2017 3:59 pm

is there one because i dont see anything for 2017 ? :shock:

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:20 pm

The competition is now up:

https://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/c ... 1488496363


THE GAME

How to play
The Cheltenham Festival, one of racing’s greatest events takes place from March 14 to 17, and you can add to the excitement with the Telegraph's FREE TO PLAY Fantasy Cheltenham game for the chance to win £1,000 in cash.
Become a Fantasy Owner by selecting your stable of jockeys and trainers and then picking a single horse in each of the 28 Festival races.
The three jockeys and three trainers that you choose score points for you every time they have a winner or placed horse in each of the Festival's 28 races and double points for the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30pm on Friday).
You’ll also start with 28 betting 'credits', one to use in each race throughout the four day festival. You will score additional points every time your chosen horse wins or is placed in a race.
The aim of the game is to score the highest number of points in order to win the first prize of £1,000 in cash.
Register your free entry now. You can make changes to your stable of jockeys and trainers up to the scheduled start time of the first race of the Festival (1.30pm on Tuesday, March 14). You can make your race selections right up to the scheduled start time of each race.
Good luck!

Selecting a stable
Create a stable of three jockeys and three trainers from the selection list. Each jockey has been rated from 1-20 and each trainer from 1-20.
The combined rating of your three jockeys must add up to at least 26.
The combined rating of your three trainers must add up to at least 26.
As the runners for each race are announced, you can start to use your betting credits to select a horse in as many of the Festival's 28 races as you wish.
Scoring Points
Please note: all points are doubled for The Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30 on Friday):
Jockeys & Trainers
Your 3 Jockeys and 3 Trainers will score points as follows.
• Race Win: 40 points
• Race Place*: 10 points

Horses
Your selected horse in each race will score points as follows:
Race Win:
10 times the Starting Price (SP)
E.g. SP of 6-1? Score 10 times the starting price: 10 x 6 = 60 points.
Race Place*:
3 times the Starting Price (SP)
E.g. SP of 5/2? Score 3 times the starting price: 3 x 2.5 = 7.5 points.
* Place applies as follows:
• 5 to 7 runners: place applies to 2nd only
• 8 or more horses: place applies to 2nd and 3rd
• In Handicap Races with 16 or more runners: place applies to 2nd, 3rd and 4th
• 4 or less horses: no place applies
Dead Heat
In the event of a dead heat for any win or place position, for the purposes of the game, all dead heated horses will score full win and place points.
Unused Credits
For each race you don't select a horse, you will lose 5 points. So don't miss a race!
In the event that a non-runner is selected, the credit will be considered to have been used.


One thing of note is that I can't see last years points totals on the site. Those serious about the game will have them saved (they are posted further up the page) or will try to find them online. A quick google may bring them to this thread! However, the vast majority won't even think that it could be a useful tool and will already be at a disadvantage.

You simply must have Mullins and Walsh. Even if Henderson has a good year, it would take a spectacular collapse by the Mullins stable for Henderson to get anywhere near the Mullins points total.
Last edited by Shrews on Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby joannemalone1 » Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:30 pm

I have set up a league for any members who want to join

League Name: OLBG
Pin: 8122614
OLBG Moderator

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:07 pm

Keep going everyone!

When I finished 2nd in 2015, I think I was about 10,000th after the first day. One good day out of four will see you competitive, so I'll say it again...

Keep going!

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Re: How to be competitive in Telegraph Fantasy Cheltenham

Postby Shrews » Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:13 pm

Keep going!

The OLBG league is currently 2nd. The Betfair leaders will have to cope with a lot of their forum not bothering to enter on the last day and therefore their average will be affected.

We've all just got to keep entering those horses in each race, right until the end, which should see the league take top spot.

Let's not forget that one 800-1000 point 'good day' will see any individual right up there!

Leader score on Tuesday = 823
Leader score on Wednesday = 1115 (average 558 for both days)

So we can see by that average how an 800-1000 point daily score can make any person competitive. Just got to hit a few big prices!

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