Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby JamPizza » Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:33 pm

Arpege D'Alene - J T McNamara National Hunt Chase (Tuesday)

Prior to this horses poor run in the Reynoldstown last time out, Paul Nicholls was putting this horse forward as one of his 2 best bets of the week (the other being Politologue). It might well be that Arpege D'Alene needs a big field though (finished 2nd in the Pertemps last year) and perhaps saw too much daylight in the 5 runner Reynoldstown. If that run can be ignored, the horse has some really good form at Cheltenham and importantly has a further 2 major positives in its favour in that the horse has been staying on well at the end of its races and it's sired by Dom Alco which suggests that the horse will see out this 4 mile trip better than many of its rivals. The run here on New Years Day when a staying on 3rd over 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft ground is another piece of form which suggests this 4 miles could be ideal. The first three in that race pulled well clear of the other 13 runners and this horse will be plugging on when many of the others have had enough. It could be a real war of attrition if the rain keeps falling.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Narrowing the Field » Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:38 pm

BURTONS WELL - Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase

The last 12 winners of the race were rated 145 or below, indeed the last 19 were rated 147 or below.
Venetia won this race 3 times in the last 10 years and she’s my current angle into the contest…
Since the 2003 Festival she has had five winners from 163 runners
All five of those winners have come in Handicaps (she is 0/39 in NON-Handicaps)
Those five winners have also come over 2m5f or 3m trips (she is 0/53 over shorter trips and 0/35 over longer trips) and have been rated between 129 – 139 and had between 3 & 7 starts in the current season.
Applying those filters to Venetia’s 163 Festival runners (since 2003) leaves you with a much more workable 15 runners but more importantly KEEPS all 5 of her winners.
So 5 filters cuts her stats from 5/163 to 5/15.
All of which suggests her Festival winners are very much plotted up for their targets, which being that it’s Venetia Williams we are talking about here is no surprise.
Pulling those Venetia angles together for this race leaves us with BURTONS WELL. The only small issue is that he’s currently number 69 on the list of entries, on a rating of OR 137, and also holds 2 other entries at the festival. He could well get a run though as a mark of 135 snuck in last term at the bottom of the weights and this race is sure to cut up plenty before final decs.
The horse himself is fantastically unexposed for an 8yo with only 3 chase starts on his CV and SIX career starts in total. He started his chasing career by running 2nd behind the Malcolm Jefferson trained Waiting Patiently, a horse who has since lowered the colours of Politologue and is now rated 151, before following that up with a solid victory in the mud at Uttoxeter. His third chase start came at Cheltenham when he finished a decent 4th behind the Colin Tizzard trained Royal Vacation over the 2m5f trip. I initially though he looked a potential non-stayer that day but I’ve since changed my mind and suspect it was probably more the fact that Venetia had further targets in mind for him rather than he failed to stay. There is far from any guarantee he will get a run in this and he does hold novice entries as well but should he line up my money will be on, there are many worse 25-1 NRNB shots around...

Best of luck - Ben Aitken (NTF)

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby donnysom » Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:06 pm

My Best Bet Potters Legend of Lucy Wadhams in Close Bros Hcap on Tuesday !!!

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby dopeytipster » Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:43 pm

O O Seven is my tip for Cheltenham

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby jamesqwe11 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:58 pm

Daphne Du Clos is my NAP of the meeting, looked coming up the hill, improves with every run, Henderson trying not to be to bullish, but suspect he expects Daphne to be at the business end.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Gman84 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:30 pm

Ok I've hung on for a while to see what else goes up plus to make sure I'm fairly certain my tip will run and run in the right race. For the longest time it was going to be Ballyandy in the Supreme and whilst it's still a pick I like he value in his price is completely gone and he's not even a real Each Way bet for anyone going in now in such an open race. I'm happy with him at my 14/1 ante post price but it's also going to be interesting to see who rides as Sam Twiston-Davies looks like he'll take up stable duties for Paul Nicholls on Movewiththetimes. Ryan Hatch is injured so I do wonder whether the trainer will reach for #2 son and stick Willy Twiston-Davies on board who has impressed me when he's got himself involved over he sticks this year and looks to have a big future in NH if he wishes to stick with it.

Anyway, with that considered I'd rather offer up something at an e/w price in a race not really covered yet so my selection will be Landofhopeandglory in the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday at 20/1 NRNB with bet365.

This race features a hot favourite in Defi Du Seuil who has looked nightly impressive and I'm not going to spend too much time trying to build a case against it other than to say the horse has looked visually impressive and has three course wins but all in small fields and this will be a bigger field and better opposition.

My selection has a lot of positives in my opinion. Firstly he was a quality flat horse coming second in a listed race and being rated at 103 at his peak. He's extremely well bred coming out of former Derby winner High Chaparral (who isn't overly known for his NH progeny but with this one and Altior might help change that despite the sire no longer being with us) and is trained by the young man who was the winning trainer in everything but name for a similar type of talent last year, also for the same owner.

He won his opening three races over hurdles including beating Willie Mullins' Bapaume and Gordon Elliott's Mega Fortune on his last victory in December at Fairyhouse. He gave them both weight that day (4lbs). The tables were reversed by Bapaume next time out but again the opponent got weight from my selection and Mega Fortune was again in 3rd, just a short head behind Landofhopeandglory but again, getting weight from my selection.

Mega Fortune has since gone on to turn the tables on Bapume whilst in the same race Ex-Patriot, who beat Landofhopeandglory last time out was back in 5th. However, Mega Fortune might have been a strong consideration for the Fred Winter but now he is loaded with top weight likely comes here. Given Landofhopeandglory has better that horse twice whilst giving weight whilst admittedly not having the better of he recent form I feel that MF priced up at 6/1 - 13/2 compared to 20/1 is a huge difference in value, as is Bapaume at 8's compared to 20's.

Obviously there are other factors to consider and other runners but these are the form lines you can follow that have a bit of depth about them. I feel I have a selection at a very good price for a trainer and owner who have recent good history in the race and have clearly targeted this and whilst the last run was a tad disappointing it should have the selection spot on for fitness. I expect Mark Walsh to ride with Richard Johnson likely to ride for Phillip Hobbs with McManus' retained jockey out injured.

Also when looking through the betting I expect one or two above in the betting to possible deflect to the Fred Winter and also the likes of Charli Parcs come here with questions to answer.

As always with the juveniles it will be a combination of finding improvement and habing the horse just right. I feel my selection is capable of both.

Landofhopeandglory - Triumph Hurdle - 20/1 e/w with bet365

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby DecoCahill » Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:05 am

My pick would be Theatre Guide in the Gold Cup, mainly for the Each Way value as bet365 have him at 100/1

Has been competing at class 1 since 2015, Paddy Brennan gets the best out of him. Theatre Guide has a decent record at Cheltenham too.

Recent form, was hampered when finishing 3rd last day, finished 7/20 when carrying a lot of weight and didnt have best of runs. and had a good win previous to that at 15/2.

Not saying it will win, but at 100/1 €1 Each Way... a place is just as good as a win

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Hogsback » Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:34 am

Tuesday 14th March 2017, 2.50pm - Festival Handicap Chase
The Druids Nephew has plenty of Cheltenham experience and good ones at that! Age might be catching up with
The Druids Nephew but with a previous festival win in 2015, he can’t be ruled out.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby titans choice » Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:29 pm

Ultima Handicap Chase Ucello Conti

My pick in this race goes to Ucello Conti it is still to win a chase after 9 runs in them but it has ran well in most of them as it has managed to place in 5 of them.It has ran at class 1 level 4 times and it has placed in 2 of them but i do believe it is only a matter of time before it wins a class 1 as it is related to muliple class 1 winner Silviniaco Conti and it ran well finishing 6th in last years English Grand National.
Ucello Conti placed in 2nd place in it's last race finishing 7 and a 1/2 lengths behind Champagne West but it did finish ahead of Bonny Kate who went on to finish 3rd in a Grand National Trial.And Pleasant Company finished 10 lengths behind Ucello Conti went on to win a class 1 race in it's next race.Thunder And Roses finished 15 lengths behind Ucello Conti and it went on to place 2nd in it's next 2 races and both were class 1 races so it beat 2 horses that has went on to win and place in class 1 in their next races.Ucello Conti finished 4th in a race on 3/12/16 which may not sound that impressive but it lost to Vieux Lion Rouge who is in good form has it has won 2 class 1 races in a row.2nd place went to Highland Lodge and 3rd place was The Last Samurai so it finished behind some very good horses.
And it did finish ahead of One For Arthur who went on to look impressive in winning a class 1 in it's next run out so it may not be winning races but it has been running ok and losing to some good horses and also finishing ahead of some good horses.
My concern for this horse would be the going as it has never ran on good ground it has nearly always been soft are worse but it has ran 1 time on good to soft and that was the race when it finished 4th which was won by Vieux Lion Rouge but it did finish behind some very good horses in that race.So i would like to see soft mentioned in the going to help it's chances and if it does i would hope it would run well and it should have a good chance of placing at least and this is Ucello Conti's entry at Cheltenham unlike a lot of horses so if it runs it will be in this race and it looks to be it's last booked run prior to the Grand National.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby meoldmate » Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:15 pm

I know I have already placed over PRESENTING PERCY for the Pertempts on the third day of the festival, one that might be over looked and may well be worth the mention is 2014 winner of this race FINGAL BAY at a very big 40/1.
Since winning he has been chasing but with little success, also he has reverted to hurdling which has seen him not showing any of his true colours of winning, with this happening, the handicapper has relented and he has a rating of 140, eight pounds lower than wining this race three years ago.
He seems to run this course well and he finished in fourth place behind Cogry beaten eleven lengths, he did give the winner fifteen pounds.
Now you are going to say, he is eleven year old and no eleven year old has not won this race since Willie Wumpkins who won this race three years in a row, making him the oldest horse to win this handicap, at the good old age of 13.
Just to give the age a bit of a boost, David Pipe did produce Buena Vista to win this race at ten, only a year younger than Philip Hobbs horse. If looking at past Cheltenham races with FINGAL BAY, he is not that badly weighted to hold a few of these and on decent ground, he may not be one to write off just yet. Certainly worth a look at 40/1 and if there a chance of asking Philip Hobbs about this one, if he is there would be great, or any other analyst.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby The Market Man » Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:38 pm

My tip for the Preview Night is Coeur De Lion in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on the Wednesday.

My nomination for the Toilet Tips last year was Diego Du Charmil and he duly obliged ( although backers of those which tipped up at the last might think he was a fortunate winner ) so here's hoping it's another winner.

CDL stepped into handicap company on the flat in October last year and has been placed in all six races under both codes since then. Won his maiden at Wetherby and then, over Cheltenham's New Course in December, he finished 1 3/4 lengths second ( in receipt of 3lbs ) behind the Triumph favourite and now 155 rated Defi Du Seuil. Another close second followed on soft ground at Sandown and a mistake at the last probably cost him the race, conceding 6lbs to the winner and going down by just 1 1/2 lengths. He then returned to the Esher track to beat older horses including Nicky Henderson's Cheltenham entrant Rather Be.

He's tenacious, improving over hurdles and surely well handicapped on the Defi Du Seuil form alone, even if the Triumph favourite has shown the greater improvement since that December contest. Trainer Alan King has recently spoken of the Triumph as a target but surely if he thinks his horse can win that then a mark of 133 in the Fred Winter is a gift that's just too good to refuse ?

CDL can be backed at 14-1 NRNB and i'm hoping connections decide to run him here.

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