Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby tfroggatt » Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:57 pm

NAP

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase - Diamond King 7/1

My Festival NAP is the Gordon Elliot trained Diamond King. He won the Coral Cup over the smaller obstacles last year off a mark of 149 and returns to Prestbury Park this year only 1lb higher in a bid to repeat his success over fences. Won well (by 14 lengths) on his reappearance but struggled to challenge in his two subsequent chases and has not been seen since finishing 4th at Limerick on Boxing Day in a Grade 2. During this time he has undergone a wind operation and his trainer expects him to improve markedly when meeting with the expected better ground at The Festival. Whilst he also holds an entry for the JLT Chase the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase has been confirmed as the primary target and if the rain stays away I fancy Diamond King to give Gordon Elliot his first victory in the race.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby joannemalone1 » Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:14 am

Posted by spurs1967

Gold Cup Friday 17th March

NATIVE RIVER makes maximum appeal. A second-season chaser with progress still available , and who's flat accurate jumping style helps maintain his rhythm and has been a feature of his success. Any horse capable of the searching fractions he set in the Hennessy Gold Cup and still having plenty left to offer at the business end of such a demanding test is a class act. Arguably his latest prep-run was visually his most impressive as he showed a turn of foot distancing him from his rivals and further enhanced his reputation. Clearly most effective on left-handed tracks and ground-versatile , this seven year old is towards the head of the market for a reason and likely to show the world of racing why.
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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby nors » Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:14 pm

Movewiththetimes comes out of the Newbury Betfair Hurdle a race i follow as it has such a good record with runners at Cheltenham. Movewiththetimes is still a double figure price for the Supreme with some firms despite only going down by 3/4s of a length to Ballyandy in the Betfair Hurdle. Watching the preview Paul Nicholls wasnt over enthusiastic which either indicates that he doesn't rate him as highly as i do OR he wants to hold the price up for the owners (JPMcManus) I will be backing it Each Way. I would advise to look at the form lines of the Betfair Hurdle in relation to Cheltenham runners. These animals are related to the form lines.
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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby The Market Man » Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:29 pm

I mentioned him in the Supreme thread at 33s, Nors, and glad I took the price.

It's a mad race this season and I can see myself studying it again on the Monday night after I've listened to all the updates given during the preview nights.

Will a bookie offer four places on the day ?

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby nors » Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:45 pm

Godd stuff Market Man, a great price you have. The 7th (Monday) is ok for this thread as that should give us time to get the info collated for the following Sunday (Our Preview Night).

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Randy Rann » Fri Mar 03, 2017 5:12 pm

Hi All

I am really strong on Djakadam for the Gold Cup and have him backed at 10's, 8's & 7's and would of put him up as my Each Way banker of the week but as Buckz990 & Richard1963 have both put him up with brilliant reasoning, I'll go for something at a bigger price who like the Willie Mullins' horse has only one day in mind.

HOLYWELL in Tuesday's Ultima Handicap Chase is my idea of a first day Each Way knocking bet.

It is hard to be confident that a horse beaten 73 lengths on it's last appearance is a festival good thing, but that effort was better than his attempt the year before in the same race when pulled up behind Ziga Boy in the 3m SkyBet Chase at Doncaster.

That is his prep, and Cheltenham in March is all that matters for this Jonjo O'Neill old favourite of mine. As long as the ground isn't too deep on the opening day he will have a mighty chance of regaining his crown.

He won this race under it's former guise In 2014 off a mark of 143 and that was a pretty good year with a strong field vanquished, headed by the second and decent Ma Filleule.
He came back last year and was a gallant second to the obviously well handicapped Un Temps Pour Tout off an Official Rating mark of 153 and was 9 lengths clear of the third The Young Master, so that form looks strong too.

I won't forget the way he tanked through the race last year and was only undone by a very smart horse close home. In between those two efforts he ran a huge race in the 2015 Gold Cup on unsuitably soft ground. That vintage was a brutal race as the very brave novice Coneygree put the field to the sword, yet this fella still managed to finish fourth beaten less than 10 lengths. (Djakadam was second as a 6yo that year too and can give Mullins his first Gold Cup)

He is ultimately being trained for the one day, as he only has one entry at this year's Cheltenham festival and looks extremely well handicapped on 148. An improving novice may be lurking in the field but with the RSA Chase cutting up badly connections of horses like Singlefarmpayment might be tempted to go the Grade 1 route in a poor year.

This one will come here if fit and I've taken the 14-1 Non Runner No Bet with Paddy Power as I believe he will be well backed on the day.

Don't forget this horse won the Pertemps Final over hurdles in 2013 and that makes his record at the Cheltenham Festival from four attempts to 1142 so you can see the canny trainer Jonjo O'Neill is priming him up for a tilt at a race he has finished 1st and second in.

I've backed him in all of those four races and he has never let me down and is still only a 10-year-old. His sire Gold Well gets strong stayers and is another name to note in staying races at the Festival and as long as the opening day ground isn't a bog I fancy HOLYWELL to run another mammoth race.


I could of put up KNOCK HOUSE (Kim Muir) or TUDOR CITY (County Hurdle) as they only have one entry too, but all the four I've mentioned here including Djakadam make up into a nice life-changing Lucky 15.

Bring it on!

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Nicoista » Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:19 pm

AUVERGNT - GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

Trained by the king of the banks Enda Bolger, who's got a great record in this race winning it 4 times in the last 10 years (last year he was awarded the race when first past the post Any Currency failed a drug test).

He's shown that he's in good form winning over the banks in the P P Hogan cross country chase at Punchestown in February, which has traditionally been a good trial in the past with 4 winners completing the double in the last 12 years.

He had his first taste of the course in January, when he was travelling as well as anything until unseating at the 26th fence, in the race won by Urgent De Gregson. I know he was getting 8lb from the winner and 23lb from the second Cantlow where they run of level weights here, but the way these races are run with the horses just hacking around in circles for the majority of the race until they rejoin the main racecourse when it turns into a sprint for the line. I don't feel weight makes as much difference as in a normal race.

The way he's ridden is also a big positive for this race as he likes to sit just behind the leaders so he's in the perfect place when the pace increases as it not easy to make ground up late in these races as the leader don't usually stop. Also being a 7 year old he may also have the turn of foot for his older rivals. I also like the look of the forcast with the French horse Urgent De Gregaine who took to the course well when winning here in January.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Robmull » Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:42 pm

Most on my ante post selections (all NRNB) still retain multiple entries at Cheltenham and I am therefore struggling to identify a single horse that I can confidently post as a definite bet at this stage.

However, I believe that there is value in backing Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup, which for the uninitiated is a challenge between GB and Ireland as to which will win the most races over the 4 day festival.

Last year the bookmakers paid out on the tie as both teams notched 14 winners, albeit Any Currency (GB) in the Cross Country Chase was disqualified some weeks afterwards with the race being awarded to Josies Orders (Ire), so theoretically Ireland are the reigning champions with the final score being 15-13 in their favour.

Having reviewed all 28 of the races for this year, I can understand why GB have been installed as favourites to win the Prestbury Cup this time, especially as Willie Mullins has been beset with injuries to a number of his star performers, but with Gordon Elliott fielding a strong team and many other Irish trainers likely to chip in with a few winners, I believe that the Irish team have around a 25% chance of achieving 15 winners by close of business on Friday.

However, the current best odds available for an Irish victory is 11/2 (15.4%), which I believe is worth a wager, albeit I will probably also have a very small saver on the tie at 7/1, just to cover my stake for the Irish victory, in case the team's end up all square, again.

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Punters Guide – Updated on 4 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412199

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby Micko70 » Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:21 am

This is my 3rd and final attempt, both of my previous selections were pulled from their targets, so i have deleted and started a fresh thread (If this is permitted)

Urgent De Gregaine -Cross Country @ 8/1

The last time i tipped in this race, i managed to pick a toilet tip winner in the shape of Balthazar King back in 2012.

The selection beat favourite Cantlow (who also happens to be favourite this year) by 3 lengths and despite getting just over a stone that day, he can cause the favourite huge problems in this too.

On paper, Cantlow should take all the beating as this is not a handicap and he is much better off at the weights with almost all of his rivals, but i am impressed with Urgent De Gregaine's jumping and i feel he could have won easier if pushed out fully coming into the home straight.

The current price of 8/1 is pretty decent value and i feel you could make a profit by backing this fell and the favourite Cantlow at his current price, of 9/4.

Auvergnat was going well in the same race when unseating rider and despite winning next time out, has to carry tons more weight, it looks a 2 horse race for me, even though former decent handicap chasers Cause Of Causes, First Lieutenant, Quantitativeeasing, Rocky Creek, Sausalito Sunrise, Third Intention & Vivaldi Collonges are all entered but lack experience over these fences and this type of course.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby gracietyke » Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:13 pm

Coral CUP

MODUS

Really liked it's win last time out at Kempton.Won on good to soft that day and will get a strongly run race.Has won 3 of 9 over hurdles.Can come from off the pace to win coming up the hill at Cheltenham.Good spare ride for somebody as Geraghty now out of the festival.

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby pokerslut » Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:43 pm

Pacha du Polder

I'm a big On The Fringe fan and he's made me plenty dosh over the years however I have little doubt that if Pacha du Polder was rode more aggressively to win the race last year and not just to get round, would have won. He flew up the hill in eye-catching fashion.
I also believe that On the Fringe wouldn't have got up if anyone other than Nina was on and she won't be there this year.
Pacha du Polder is my e/w NAP of the week. Good luck with the preview night lads,I can't wait to watch it, your well capable of putting on a great show..

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Re: Official OLBG Cheltenham Preview Tips - The Racing World Is Watching!

Postby nors » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:18 pm

Bits of money for MTOY Shrews reported by Bet Victor.

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