I agree. The Supreme looks like a nightmare to unpick. Anyone from Melon to Movewiththetimes could win that on a going day. Degree of improvement and level of exposure can hide a good thing in that race.
How's the Gold cup and Cross country historically for favourites?
The Gold Cup has had 5 winning favourites in the last ten years but favourites have never won it two years on the bounce. Best priced winner was Lord Windermere at 20/1. Worth noting Denman was 9/4 second favourite when he won.
In the Cross Country Josie's Orders was the first favourite to win in ten years Heads Onthe Ground in 2007) so over ten years it's 2 winning favourites bookending the time period. Biggest priced winner was A New Story in 2010 at 25/1.
Another favourites graveyard is the Bumper with Moon Racer in 2015 the only winning favourite (and that was punted late, he started the day at 9/1) and you get some massive priced winners - 16/1, 25/1, 40/1...obviously this reflects that a lot of these horses are unknowns and the level of improvement, ability or both is guesswork, probably to the trainers to a degree but especially for the betting public.
A couple of other races whilst I've got a moment:
- 3 winning favourites in last ten years but that stat stays the same over 5 years (2012, 2014 and 2016).
- 5 winning favourites in the last ten years but Big Bucks was responsible for 3 of those. No winning favourite the last 3 years since Big Bucks last win and we have no defending champion again (although Cole Harden who won in 2015 should be back).
- 3 winning favourites in last ten years (I was slightly surprised without looking I felt it would be more) with two of those been massive odds on (Masrterminded and Sprinter Sacre). LKast three winners have all won the Clarence House Chase before coming to this so there's a stat Douvan must overcome (I'm sure Douvan backers are quaking in their boots about that!).