Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

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Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:10 pm

Below were the favourites a day or so out in 2016 for each day of the festival, with the decimal prices. 8 outright favourites won in 2016 and 1 joint favorite
2015 - 7 favs
2014 - 6 favs (1 joint)
2013 - 9 favs
2012 - 9 favs
2011 - 8 favs

If we say that there will be a max of 9 winning favs in 2017 and we ignore all the handicaps then we should be able to narrow down at least a few winners.
Tuesday 15th
Min 2.75 LOST
Douvan 1.44 WON
Minella Foru 15 NON
Annie Power 4 WON
Vroum Vroum Mag 2.5 WON
Black Hercules 5 NON
Orbasa 17 NON

Wednesday 16th
Yanworth 2 2nd
No More Heroes 3.75
Diamond King 13
Un De Sceaux 1.73 2nd
Josies Orders 3.5 2nd
Frodon 15
Ballyandy 11

Thursday 17th
Bristol De Mai 4.5 2nd
Cup Final 11
Vautour 5.5 1st
Thistlecrack 2.1 1st

Taquin Du Seuil 15
Limini 2.1 1st
Doctor Harper 13

Friday 18th
Ivanovich Gorbatov 5 1st
Blue Hell 13
Barters Hill 3.75
Don Cossack 5.5 1st
On the Fringe 3.75 1st
Diamond King 11
Next Sensation 12

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Piggybacker » Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:15 pm

Thanks for setting this up nors.

I was wondering about this myself. I'm finding some of the faves difficult to see past this year. If they run, which of these beauties do you think would let me down?

Rock solid imo
Arkle - Altior
Champion - Douvan
Stayers - Unowhatimeanharry

Others I like
Cross country - Cantlow
Triumph - Defi du Seuil
Gold cup - Thistlecrack

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Pisto1 » Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:42 pm

Thanks for setting this up nors.

I was wondering about this myself. I'm finding some of the faves difficult to see past this year. If they run, which of these beauties do you think would let me down?

Rock solid imo
Arkle - Altior
Champion - Douvan
Stayers - Unowhatimeanharry

Others I like
Cross country - Cantlow
Triumph - Defi du Seuil
Gold cup - Thistlecrack
I can see Thistlecrack being out stayed by native river up that hill and Cantlow I have a feeling will get beat.Altior and Douvan are way too short for me to back though they'll 'probably' win.The other 2 have strong chances.well I hope they do as I've backed em already!

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Piggybacker » Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:39 pm

I can see Thistlecrack being out stayed by native river up that hill and Cantlow I have a feeling will get beat.Altior and Douvan are way too short for me to back though they'll 'probably' win.The other 2 have strong chances.well I hope they do as I've backed em already!
Fair enough. Personally, I think Thistlecrack is being harshly reviewed based on its last run. On better ground, attacking the fences like in the KG, I think he'll be terrifying. They couldn't risk an all or nothing slog this close to the festival and Thistlecrack was looking striking even after a good test at Cheltenham last time. It wasn't worth flattening him for around £25k more for the win when there is £327k available for the Gold cup. A softer ride doesn't help our boy Thistlecrack so I think that caught him out more than anything.

I'm more uncertain about Cantlow. Maybe the good price I got is clouding my view on him, although I don't know which horse would beat him when the prize money is down.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Gman84 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:43 am

It's also worth n oting which races are good or bad for favourites.

The Supreme for example, has traditionally been a favourites graveyard although Mullins' briefly turned that around for a couple of years with Vautour (joint favourite) and Douvan. They are the only two winning favourites in the last ten years.

The Arkle has seen favourites win 4 of the last 5 years although go back to ten years and it's still only 4 favourite winners.

The Champion Hurdle is a bit like the Arkle, recent years have seen 4 favs go in from the past 6 renewals but it stays at 4 if you go back to ten years.

The OLBG Mares Hurdle is a favourites favourite! Helped by the fact the same horse won it 6 times on the bounce (Quevega) and last year we had Vroum Vroum Mag. Even when Annie Power fell at the last two years ago the 2nd favourite stepped into her place so the bookies tend to price this one up right.

I'm not going to go through every race now but what I would say is for the Grade 1's - not so much the handicaps for obvious reasons - it's worth checking out how favourites have fared in the race.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Piggybacker » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:55 pm

I agree. The Supreme looks like a nightmare to unpick. Anyone from Melon to Movewiththetimes could win that on a going day. Degree of improvement and level of exposure can hide a good thing in that race.

How's the Gold cup and Cross country historically for favourites?

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby UnderdogsLover » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:50 pm

Gold Cup: I can say Thistlecrack can be beaten again!!
1: With hard race against unfortunate :console: Many Clouds
could the race taken out of him!!
Be looking nice EW nearer the day, and watching the going to,
There been shocks in this such as Norton Coin anything can happen.
What make it be interesting. :cool:

Got another horse I follow for got what race he in!!
Could be Gold Cup runner!!next year..

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:03 am

If someone can list the championship races and list the favs for those that should help all of us.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Shrews » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:44 am

Not sure if they're classed as 'Championship' races but these are the non-handicap Grade 1 races with odds from Oddschecker

Day 1
Supreme Novice Hurdle - Melon 4/1, Moon Racer 6/1, Charli Parcs 8/1
Arkle - Altior 4/11, Yorkhill 9/1, Identity Thief 14/1
Champion Hurdle - Buveur Dair 7/2, Yorkhill (needs supplementing) 7/2, Petit Mouchair 9/2
Mares Hurdle - Apples Jade 15/8, Vroum Vroum Mag 9/4, Limini 9/2

Day 2
Neptune - Finians Oscar 4/1, Neon Wolf 6/1, Bacardys 12/1
RSA Chase - Might Bite 7/2, Coney Island 10/1, Alpha Des Obeaux 12/1
Queen Mother - Dovan 1/3, Altior 5/1, Fox Norton 10/1
Champion Bumper - Carter Mckay 4/1, Ballyward 9/1, Storm Home 10/1

Day 3
JLT Novices Chase - Yorkhill 5/2, Top Notch 4/1, Politologue 8/1
Ryanair Chase - Cue Card 7/2, Un De Sceaux 7/2, Uxizandre 7/1
Stayers Hurdle - Unowhatimeanharry 13/8, Vroum Vroum Mag 7/1, Jezki 8/1

Day 4
Triumph Hurdle - Defi Du Seuil 7/2, Mega Fortune 8/1, Charli Parcs 10/1
Albert Bartlett Novices - Death Duty 11/4, West Approach 7/1, Wholsetone 8/1
Gold Cup - Thistlecrack 15/8, Native River 9/2, Djakadam 7/1

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:04 am

Thanks Shrews, now of course it is possible that these favs may not line up or be usurped by other runners. Lets presume 1 handicap fav wins, that leaves 7/8 favs to win from these. So lets be cautious and choose 5 of these from 14 to give us a return. Tuesday is generally a good day for favs.

I really like Cue Card for the Ryanair seeing that the Gold Cup was initially the target.

Day 1
Supreme Novice Hurdle - Melon 4/1, Moon Racer 6/1, Charli Parcs 8/1
Arkle - Altior 4/11, Yorkhill 9/1, Identity Thief 14/1
Champion Hurdle - Buveur Dair 7/2, Yorkhill (needs supplementing) 7/2, Petit Mouchair 9/2
Mares Hurdle - Apples Jade 15/8, Vroum Vroum Mag 9/4, Limini 9/2

Day 2
Neptune - Finians Oscar 4/1, Neon Wolf 6/1, Bacardys 12/1
RSA Chase - Might Bite 7/2, Coney Island 10/1, Alpha Des Obeaux 12/1
Queen Mother - Dovan 1/3, Altior 5/1, Fox Norton 10/1
Champion Bumper - Carter Mckay 4/1, Ballyward 9/1, Storm Home 10/1

Day 3
JLT Novices Chase - Yorkhill 5/2, Top Notch 4/1, Politologue 8/1
Ryanair Chase - Cue Card 7/2, Un De Sceaux 7/2, Uxizandre 7/1
Stayers Hurdle - Unowhatimeanharry 13/8, Vroum Vroum Mag 7/1, Jezki 8/1

Day 4
Triumph Hurdle - Defi Du Seuil 7/2, Mega Fortune 8/1, Charli Parcs 10/1
Albert Bartlett Novices - Death Duty 11/4, West Approach 7/1, Wholsetone 8/1
Gold Cup - Thistlecrack 15/8, Native River 9/2, Dj

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Gman84 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:54 pm

I agree. The Supreme looks like a nightmare to unpick. Anyone from Melon to Movewiththetimes could win that on a going day. Degree of improvement and level of exposure can hide a good thing in that race.

How's the Gold cup and Cross country historically for favourites?

The Gold Cup has had 5 winning favourites in the last ten years but favourites have never won it two years on the bounce. Best priced winner was Lord Windermere at 20/1. Worth noting Denman was 9/4 second favourite when he won.

In the Cross Country Josie's Orders was the first favourite to win in ten years Heads Onthe Ground in 2007) so over ten years it's 2 winning favourites bookending the time period. Biggest priced winner was A New Story in 2010 at 25/1.

Another favourites graveyard is the Bumper with Moon Racer in 2015 the only winning favourite (and that was punted late, he started the day at 9/1) and you get some massive priced winners - 16/1, 25/1, 40/1...obviously this reflects that a lot of these horses are unknowns and the level of improvement, ability or both is guesswork, probably to the trainers to a degree but especially for the betting public.

A couple of other races whilst I've got a moment:

Ryanair Chase - 3 winning favourites in last ten years but that stat stays the same over 5 years (2012, 2014 and 2016).
World Hurdle - 5 winning favourites in the last ten years but Big Bucks was responsible for 3 of those. No winning favourite the last 3 years since Big Bucks last win and we have no defending champion again (although Cole Harden who won in 2015 should be back).
QMCC - 3 winning favourites in last ten years (I was slightly surprised without looking I felt it would be more) with two of those been massive odds on (Masrterminded and Sprinter Sacre). LKast three winners have all won the Clarence House Chase before coming to this so there's a stat Douvan must overcome (I'm sure Douvan backers are quaking in their boots about that!).

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby Piggybacker » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:26 pm

So no good news then Gman! :lol:

Now there I was thinking that with so many horses targeted at Cheltenham, their form is usually worked out and pretty strong by the time you get to the festival. But this is horse racing, right.

Naturally, I'd like all the horses I've followed and backed to crush it in their events - now it look decidedly unlikely that I'll get anywhere near a clean sweep.

Oh well, a boy can dream.

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