Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

nors
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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:33 pm

So we have the prices above from the 14th February, now some of the favs from the 14th Feb will not be running in those races, but if you have a look at the OLBG Mares Hurdle you can see that Limini was 9/2, now hovering around 1/1.

Sporting Index have a load of Cheltenham markets including the favourites market where they expect 8 winning favs.

The spread for the 4 Championship Races is 53-56, the 4 races are Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup.

The above figure "indicates" (but not guaranteed) that a max of 2 favs will win from the 4 championship races.

currently the favs are
Yanworth 4.0
Douvan 1.33
uknowwhatimeaniharry 2.37
Native River, Djakadam, Cue Card (to be decided)

So we think Douvan is fairly bomb proof that leaves Yanworth or uknowwhatimeanharry vulnerable if the traders at Sporting Index are correct.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby tbuckley » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:37 am

My Cheltenham blog looks at the SP of winners of a selection of Festival races from the last 12 years with the odds quoted & trends highlighted :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412396

here is an example taken from the blog

"Historical SP of winners of the Neptune Novice Hurdle (2005 to 2016)

Going from 2005 to 2016, the SP of winners of the Neptune Novice Hurdle have been :- 17/2, 17/2, 20/1, 5/2f, 7/1, 7/1, 2/1f, 7/2, 6/4f, 9/2 & 3/1 - In the context of how tough Cheltenham is for punters, then this race has been pretty kind to the majority of punters with only 1 winner bigger than 17/2 in last 11 years, last 8 have all been 7/1 or under."

you can use the blog to see how many favourites have won the selected races over the last 12 years, hope it helps in some way. :win:
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:17 pm

As a further aside to the above post in relation to Sporting Index


4 races in total.
Champion Hurdle, World Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup.

Championship Favourites 53-56
Championship Starting Prices 29-31

So the total Staring prices of the winners of those 4 races they predict to be between around 30/1, so 1 if not 2 of those Championship race are going to have a possible double figure winner if you think Douvan wins the Queen Mother.

So if Douvan does win the QM at odds on then the other 3 Championship races will have a combined SP of 30/1.

Something to keep in mind especially if 1 of the first 3 in the betting win the Champion Hurdle and then Douvan wins the QM.

Last year the Sp was 10.75 so its shows what a big figure is on offer this year.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:38 pm

Current favs for Tuesday:
Melon (4)
Altior (1.29)
Singlefarmpayment/Noble Endeavor (9)
Yanworth (4)
Limini (2.63)
Edwulf (6)
Foxtail Hill (7)

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:39 pm

Only 1 favourite went into today Altior. So that broke a pattern of Cheltenham Tuesday being good for favs. So possibly expect a good day for favs tomorrow.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:25 pm

So far:

Neon Wolf 2nd
Mightbite 1st
Tombstone unplaced
Douvan - unplaced!!
Cantlow 3rd
Divine Bere 2nd
Cause Toujours unplaced.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:46 pm

Again only 1 fav today. I would expect a minimum of 2 Thursday and 2 Friday that would still only be 6 which is low.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:45 am

Todays Favs - expect 2 winners but which ones? The 2 shortest are in bold.

1.30 Yorkhill
2.10 Jury Duty
2.50 Un De Sceux
3.30 Unowhatimeanharry
4.10 Diamond King
4.50 Lets dance
5.30 Squotaur

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:05 pm

2 favs won so far, and Presenting Percy on the ante post markets was the fav, so we are seeing a better day for favs and those close to the head of the market.

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:04 pm

Todays Favs
Defi Du Seuil- Won
Ivanovich Gorbachov Lost
Death Duty - Lost
Djakadam ?
On The Fringe
No Comment/Battleford?
Le Prezien?

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Re: Betting On The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Favourites

Postby nors » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:10 pm

I would suspect that either Djakadam or On the Fringe win.

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