Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

pokerslut
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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby pokerslut » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:23 pm

Was looking back over last year's race again and it looks to me had V Pendleton been a bit more aggressive and closer to the pace of the race Pacha du Polder would probably have won. The horse finished stronger than any other and I think going there armed with that extra confidence could be a major player at 16/1.
I'm a big fan of OTF but it was ninas expert ride that won last year so Im going against this year...

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby DannyCraig » Thu Feb 23, 2017 3:40 pm

Was looking back over last year's race again and it looks to me had V Pendleton been a bit more aggressive and closer to the pace of the race Pacha du Polder would probably have won. The horse finished stronger than any other and I think going there armed with that extra confidence could be a major player at 16/1.
I'm a big fan of OTF but it was ninas expert ride that won last year so Im going against this year...
Almost word for word, great minds think alike!

Give us something at big odds that is IT going to outrun it’s big price?

Many believed that with a more experienced jockey on board last year, Pacha Du Polder could have got a little bit closer than the 3 lengths it found itself off On the Fringe in the Hunter Chase at the Festival last year. Having won on its seasonal debut this year, perhaps the 16/1 could be too big a price come the Friday afternoon as we know it's very likely to stay on up the hill.

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Buckz990 » Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:09 pm

On The Fringe loves it round Cheltenham and ran well in last appearance getting beat out Foxrock who's been in very good form this season so that form is pretty good I think nice little preparation run that was. Nina Carberry is obviously a big miss but the horse is top class and I would think Jamie Codd will ride and he's won on the horse before and knows the horse well enough. I would expect the horse to at least go close and in my opinion still is a clear favourite for the race bit short at the moment around 6/4 and 5/4 some places I think might get a bit bigger than that on the day or closer to Cheltenham.

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby TeddyT » Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:11 am

I've just been looking through the prices and I'm very surprised to see Black Thunder priced up with one firm at 33/1.

I know he got beat at very short odds last time but I'm not sure a sharp track like Kelso would play to his strengths?

Even with the caveat regarding the course, his defeat of Dolatulo first time up at the track earned him a RPR of 142 which would put him fourth in those ratings for this race behind Pacha Du Polder, On The Fringe and Ask The Weatherman. Black Thunder is 0/5 at Cheltenham but I'm not sure that tells the whole story as on one occasion he looked set to be at least placed in a 28k handicap behind Sausalito Sunrise but made a bad mistake at the 2nd last.

Does anyone know what Sam Waley-Cohen's riding plans are? As Black Thunder is owned by his father I would have thought it was a certainty he would be riding this horse but then he continued his association with Paint The Clouds at Doncaster the other day so can we assume he is going to ride that again at Cheltenham? If that is the case then either Black Thunder is not going to run or perhaps the Waley-Cohens don't think he has much of a chance?

Even given the doubts about jockey plans I think 33/1 is too big a price for this formerly very decent handicapper.
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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:53 am

I am also thinking pacha du polder is going to be bettet for a different ride... Pendleton whole aim was to get round last year... if it was put in the race before it was too late we may have seen a different result....

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby addpea » Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:26 pm

Pacha Du Polder has no chance of staying a truly run Foxhunter. Last year's race was about 20 seconds slower than the Gold cup whereas it is usually run around 10 seconds slower. That meant horses who didn't stay were able to come to fore. Pacha's class got him involved and because he had been held up at the back so he did have a chance to stay it meant he still had plenty of running left at the finish. Nothing in his form suggests he is going to stay a Foxhunter that is run at its usual pace. The other issue is his jockey who isn't the best.

As for Black Thunder I just wonder if he will only run if it is testing ground as they will take Paint The Clouds out if it is soft. Struggle to see Sam not wanting to ride Paint The Clouds if the ground comes up good.
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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby jaydubs » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:47 pm

Why do I always have to wait till late on Friday to break even at Chelt.

Given a much better ride this year and it told....

Well done all those on it

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby slimey » Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:56 pm

Corals were 22/1, no ideas what it was on the exchanges

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Re: Foxhunters Chase - Friday 17th March 2017 (Day 4)

Postby Bennywatson » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:33 pm

Nice tip on PDP. I was backing OTF and was disappointed! First Cheltenham in a while that I left in minus money!!
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