Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

TeddyT
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby TeddyT » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:47 pm

I always think most of the fancied runners at this stage of the year can be crossed off as they are very unlikely to run. Let's see if we come up with a shortlist of horses who will run in it and then we must surely to be able to find a bit of value. If you have read or heard anything clearcut about any of these runners please post:

Un De Sceaux
The Ryanair probably looks like the race for this horse at this stage of his career. Personally I'd imagine If the ground came up good something would beat him.

Cue Card
In today's RP the Tizzards are suggesting that the Festival target is still to be decided for this horse. I think he'll most likely run in the Gold Cup.

Josses Hill
I would imagine he is a fairly certain runner here. As others have mentioned though I'm not sure his jumping is good enough to win a top race at Cheltenham.

Outlander
I would think more likely to run in the Gold Cup?

Sub Lieutenant
This one interests me for this and seems much improved since being switched to De Bromhead.

Black Hercules
Connections seem perplexed regarding this horse's optimum distance with everything from 2m to 4m previously considered. His two runs this season leave him with a bit to prove.

Djakadam
Surely more likely to head back to the Gold Cup?

Vroum Vroum Mag
Likely to have multiple entries and this race doesn't leap out as the most likely.

Other top horses quoted include Zabana, Road To Riches, Bristol De Mai and Ar Mad.

Can anyone confirm any of the above (or other entries) where this race is the definite target?
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby JoeWBA » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:40 pm

Wish I'd done the same Brownie! Talked myself into taking the exact same bet last night

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:14 pm

Personally speaking, I think the Tizzards will be mad in the head if they take Fox Norton to the Queen Mother Champion Chase to tackle Douvan.

I believe Fox Norton has a much better chance of landing what may turn out to be a very winnable Ryanair Chase. Fox Norton already had a crack at Douvan during last years National meeting and was no match for the Mullins star, beaten 32 lengths. Even with the improvement since, it's a stiff task tackling the mighty Douvan.

It's obviously an extra 5F in the Ryanair but Fox Norton finished strongly last time and I feel he may get the trip. He's improved to a rating of 167 now, which is a fair way from the 146 he went in against Douvan from. Fox Norton is in good hands with a Trainer/Owner combo doing little wrong this season.

Fox Norton would have more pace than Djakadam and the way stablemate Cue Card ran last time, he might not need to fear him too much. The two sticking points are, Is he going to run? and will the trip be a bit too far?

I think he is well capable of staying, so I am going to hope he heads to the race if Douvan goes for the Queen Mum. I could see Fox Norton in the first three in the betting at a good bit shorter odds. If he doesn't run, it's not damaging stakes at 16/1.

Ryanair Chase Fox Norton 16/1 for a sporting gamble :hope:
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby tbuckley » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:09 pm

I've got my Alan Potts colours on again for this and I've had a very small e/w bet on SIZING JOHN at 25/1, now trained by Jessica Harrington

I've heard that this could be the festival race he's targeted at this year as Mr Potts has Fox Norton for the Champion Chase, Sizing John proven he can handle Cheltenham, I think he's a really classy type who can improve for stepping up in trip, he takes his chance at Thurles on Thursday and we'll know more after that.
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:44 am

Read a comment that when he last ran over 20f they felt he didnt stay, but hope he may with age?

This is 21f, but I suppose the ground will be far better than what he's been running on.

2nd 7 times to Douvan!

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Derbz87 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:07 pm

He certainly stayed it well enough there today although up the hill at Cheltenham could be a different ball game, for all that we know he gets up the hill fine off a fierce 2 mile gallop. Its a muddling old race for form because patently Smashing and Black Hercules look to have lost the plot this season and the other two never had a chance but Sub Leiutenant's been running pretty solidly around the high 150's-160 recently and there's no reason to doubt him running his race here. With so many of the others in the market being horses who are dropping back in trip which isn't certain to suit and others who might take Douvan on over 2 miles, there's not that many you'd say definately want 2.5M and you have to say hats off to tbuckley because that was a cracking bit of speculating prior to today and you could be sitting on a superb price there! :win:

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby tbuckley » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:36 pm

He certainly stayed it well enough there today although up the hill at Cheltenham could be a different ball game, for all that we know he gets up the hill fine off a fierce 2 mile gallop. Its a muddling old race for form because patently Smashing and Black Hercules look to have lost the plot this season and the other two never had a chance but Sub Leiutenant's been running pretty solidly around the high 150's-160 recently and there's no reason to doubt him running his race here. With so many of the others in the market being horses who are dropping back in trip which isn't certain to suit and others who might take Douvan on over 2 miles, there's not that many you'd say definately want 2.5M and you have to say hats off to tbuckley because that was a cracking bit of speculating prior to today and you could be sitting on a superb price there! :win:
cheers for that Derbz87, I actually didn't see the race live as my shift in the bookies finished 10 minutes before the race so I watched a re-run when I got home, I know people have & will pick holes in the form of the race today but I thought Sizing John did it well & I think he showed he deserves his chance in a race like the Ryanair and can go there with a live hope, I'm not going to say he's a great bet but I think he's a much better bet than a lot of the others in the race, I've only got very small money on at 25/1 & I'm not going to start pretending I'm in line to land a massive ante-post gamble, purely a punt taken on a horse I've followed from day 1 and a horse that before today wasn't considered by anybody apart from those connected or who follow him, after all he's not trained by Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls.

Sizing John impressed Lydia Hislop enough for her to include him in her Cheltenham ante-post article on sportinglife :-

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news ... nair-chase

basically thoughts along the lines of Sizing John being proven at Cheltenham & likely to be suited by the trip, always good to know that the very well paid experts are ahead of the game and can inform us all........ :wink: :lol:
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby jackh1092 » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:14 am

Definitely deserves to take his chance after that...a small crab on the form for me would be i don't think sub lieutenant stays that trip as well you'd like....the way sizing john came up and pounced on him suggested to me a slightly shorter trip suits SL.
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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Robmull » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:08 am

I have just posted the first iteration of my trends based blog for this race, but as always it is a difficult event decipher in terms of which entries will actually turn up on the day, let alone finding the winner at this stage.

There are currently 3 trends based qualifiers from the first 9 in the betting, but each of them has also been entered for an alternative Grade 1 chase at the Festival and there is a strong chance that the final field will look very different to the current betting market, albeit there are probably some good value odds available for some of entries, if punters can be certain that the horse will be declared to run on the day.

Ryanair Chase Key Race Trends – 16 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412220

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Shrews » Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:57 pm

Uxizandre an impressive performance there to finish 2nd after two years out. 10/1 or so at present looks a cracking Each Way for this race

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Robmull » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:05 pm

On face value I agree Shrews, especially when equipped with his usual blinkers applied, over the longer trip.

However, the fact that he ran such a strong race worries me a little, as he may 'bounce' after such a long absence.

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Re: Ryanair Chase - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Robmull » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:42 pm

Another race that doesn't appear to have captured the imagination of the OLBG members during the last few weeks.

Having just updated my trends based blog for this event, I have been tempted to place a small Each Way investment (NRNB) on one of the score based qualifiers, which is a fairly rare event for me, as I usually only have a portfolio of around 5 or 6 ante post bets prior to the start of the Cheltenham Festival.

Ryanair Chase Key Race Trends – 16 March 2017 – Updated on 22 February 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412220

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