Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

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Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:20 am

Thoughts...

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:19 pm

Pertemps final handicap three miles


I thought i look at the declarations of this race and at this present stage, there are 54 entries, as we all know well they all will not be appearing here.
Of this large amount of declarations twenty three have entries for earlier races, with this, they will be being placing their potential ability on the line, with indication of where they be appearing at Cheltenham or not.
Here are the runners that have entries over this weekend.

Saturday

Kempton
1.15
RAINY CITY weight 11-12 rating 135 twice placed off this mark in last twice two races.

Chepstow
3.40

ABBREVIATE weight 11-0 rating 131 up six pounds from last run
ANTEROS weight 11-0 rating 131 racing off same mark when fifth last time out.
GAYEBURY weight 11-1 rating 132 beaten 2 1/2 lengths off this mark at Haydock on heavy ground
JURY DUTY weight 11-12 rating 143 won off 126 at Navan, raised seventeen pounds.
RACING PULSE weight 10-12 rating 129 been finding it hard to complete a race and racing off higher marks than this
RED HANRAHAN weight 10-12 rating 130 on the same rating as his Newbury sixth
ROLLING MAUL weight 10-12 rating 129 won off 130 a pound higher
RUACANA Non Runner
SOLSTICE STAR weight 11-1 rating 132 won off a mark five pounds lower
SOUPY SOUPS weight 11-4 rating 135 nineteen pounds higher than best rating
SPLASH OF GINGE weight 11-10 rating 141 up seven pounds from best mark and last run
SURTEE DU BERLAIS weight 11-7 rating 138 dropped a pound from last two runs when finishing third and ninth

4.15

SOLSTICE STAR non runner

Fairyhouse
2.55

GLENLOE Non Runner
PRESENTING PERCY weight 11-4 rating 130 up fifteen pounds but a pound higher than his last two runs when fourth and fifth
SUTTON MANOR Non Runner
WOODFORD ISLAND Non Runner

Sunday

Southwell
4.10

ABBREVIATE Non Runner
KELVINGROVE weight 11-9 rated 131 up five pounds from highest winning mark but raced off this mark the last twice when third and fifth
RUACANA Non Runner
SOME KINDA LAMA Non Runner

Monday

Ayr
4,45

RUACANA weight 11-8 rated 135 dropped two pounds from best mark, which he ran off last time when pulled up.
SHADES OF MIDNIGHT weight 11-12 rated 139 up two pounds from best winning mark but been dropped three pounds from last run when fourth

INTEREST of THOUGHTS

The Chepstow race appears with most of the field having Cheltenham on there agenda ad we might see a good run from ROLLING MAUL who has a fair mark to run off and maybe SURTEE DU BERLAIS could be worth a look.

At Fairyhouse PRESENTING PERCY has a good chance of showing his potential and if doing so would surely be at Cheltenham.

Sunday meeting at Southwell KELVINGROVE will be putting his credentials on the line and with a big run, he could be marking his place for Cheltenham.

At Ayr on Monday we see two declarations and both have lower ratings and be interesting to see who can come out on top.


The reason for placing over this information as we could be rewarded with a good winner, as they maybe ready to run a big race and give their chances of success at Cheltenham greater than first thought, or they could be missing the festival altogether and worth keeping an eye on later in the season.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:03 pm

PRESENTING PERCY gave notice of his being by winning with what looked plenty in hand as the jockey was not that hard on his mount and may of booked his place at Cheltenham.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:21 am

KELVINGROVE certainly showed he can battle, even though he came third, his jockey was working hard from someway out. To be frank, cannot see him lining up for this race, does not look good enough.

For the Ayr race today, RUACANA is non runner but SHADES OF MIDNIGHT has stood his ground and could be well worth the punt or watching to see how well goes with a view of a tilt at this race.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:27 pm

SHADES OF MIDNIGHT battle well but could not find the first place spot at Ayr today and I think this one will not be going to Cheltenham either.

So far of all the runners that come out GAYEBURY and JURY DUTY from Chepstow gave notice of their chances, the other eleven that ran, I could see them not keeping their declaration.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:38 pm

How tight can the bookies get with PRESENTING PERCY 7/1 and 6/1 with Ladbrokes. Surely will be double figures on the day.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Shrews » Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:43 pm

The Tourard Man is available at 50/1 and was 3rd in this in 2015. He is Alan King's only runner in the race and it's the horse's only entry at Cheltenham. Other than the 20/1 3rd with this horse in 2015, King also had a 3rd with Chamirey at 28/1 in 2010. The horse won over hurdles last season and is now just 1lb higher and then followed that up with a hat-trick over fences.

Poor runs in the autumn, but he had been on the go for a year and may well have needed a break. He will have had a break of 131 days by the time the race comes and he's sure to be geared up for this and perhaps interesting that he's going back to hurdling.

From At The Races http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/alan-king

“Well he’s already won four and ran at Hereford on Thursday. We might switch back to hurdles and get him qualified for the Pertemps Final again. He will be one that will go off for a winter holiday as he is very much a good ground horse.”

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby Zipster » Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:27 pm

There are three currently entered in the race who have caught my eye.

Mr Mix (21/1)
French bred runner who moved to Paul Nicholls back in 2014, beaten on his first two starts for the yard before going in at Taunton, has since been out and failed to finish three of his races but did win a Cl2 at Wincanton back in December. Was tried out over fences last time out but he unshipped NTD so will be reverted back to hurdles for this and holds a 143 mark, his win over hurdles came off 139 so this mark should not be out of his reach. Ran in the Martin Pipe last year but fell at the final hurdle although looked to have too much ground to make up to get in the places.

Barney Dawn (26/1)
This runner has a good 4 months between Nov 2015 and March 2016 when he went on to win 3 from 4 starts over hurdles but has since gone 5 without picking up a win, the run that caught the eye though was when unseating Brennan at the last the Warwick two starts ago when despiting second behind Tobefair, he needs a bit of cut in the ground, only concern is his increasing OR despite not winning.

Caid Du Berlais (26/1)
This is probably the strongest for me out of the three mainly because he has Cheltenham form have won here by in 2014 and has also placed here three times in the past including the 2013 (Fred Winter) and 2014 (Martin Pipe) festivals. He won back in November at Aintree off 140 to show he still knows how to win a races, he has form at winning over 3m having won at Aintree over a similar trip and as long as the ground does not go heavy then he would be fine, Fingal Bay came here in 2014 as an 8yo previous Cheltenham winner to win the race and Caid Du Berlais could follow suit.

There is still questions about which of the handicaps Barney Dawn and Caid Du Berlais will be heading but if Caid Du Berlais comes here then he will be my pick, if he doesn't then Barney Dawn will be, if he goes to the Coral Cup then Mr Mix will be the pick!

Has anyone else had a look over the race yet, if so what are your fancies?
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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby tbuckley » Thu Mar 02, 2017 2:35 am

For those interested I've done a blog looking at historical Winner SP's of a selection of races including the Pertemps :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412396

taken from the blog :-

"
Going from 2004 to 2016, the SP of winners of the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle have been :- 10/1, 50/1, 14/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 14/1, 25/1, 9/2f , 9/1 14/1 - 2014's heavily gambled 9/2f winner Fingal Bay stands out in this race as you can see the previous 9 years were not good for the favourites or general fancied horses, previous 9 all 10/1 or bigger, 8 of them 14/1 or bigger with a 50/1 winner thrown in for good measure, 10 of the last 12 winners have been 10/1 or bigger."

Hope that helps & interests people :win:
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:51 am

With the continuation of looking at horses who are declared to run here and may not hold this entry, three come to view

Today
STONEHAM running at Newcastle 2.40 7/2 favourite and top weight in this flat race over two miles.

Saturday
Doncaster 1.50

RUACANA

ROLLING BALL

Monday

Lingfield 3.50

RUACANA

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby meoldmate » Thu Mar 02, 2017 2:48 pm

STONEHAM won at Newcastle and will be stripping a lot fitter for this entry if keeping, plus for ourselves we gained a winner with a player from this race, which looking at these runners for Cheltenham could be bearing fruit else where.

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Re: Pertemps Final - Thursday 16th March 2017 (Day 3)

Postby The Executioner » Thu Mar 02, 2017 4:23 pm

This is what I have written for the Cheltenham tips preview page.



Arguably the toughest and most competitive of the festival races with many established handicappers being taken on by some improving and unexposed novices. A big field is always guaranteed and the task to find some value on the betting is never easy. However I have had my attention drawn to one particular runner for some time now , that is the Harry Fry trained Wotzizname. He's a lightly raced 7yo son of Fruits Of Love who joined his current connections back in the spring of last year following some promise between the flags. This will be only his fifth run under rules, winning two novice hurdles in April and May with any amount in hand with a view to a campaign over fences this season. Wotzizname disappointed on his chasing debut at Aintree in November where his jumping was far from fluent at times and he was comfortably beaten by the Paul Nicholls trained Arpege D'Alene. He was then given two months off and I feel it may well turn out to be a wise decision by his trainer to return him to the smaller obstacles. A run at Musselburgh last month when fourth beaten a shade under four lengths in total behind El Bandit will hopefully put him cherry ripe for this, and the three pounds pull in the weights can only help. Wotzizname acts well on a sound surface and also soft underfoot conditions which is in his favour and unless I'm wrong appears open to further improvement.

El Bandit is likely to be in the starting line up and is one of many with chances. While the season's big improver Tobefair is a real winning machine for his stable and was earmarked for this race some time back. Presenting Percy looks to be the main Irish Challenger but looks dreadful value to me at around 6/1 having to race from a mark some thirty one pounds higher than his Punchestown win in November and sixteen higher than his most recent success last month, the GB assessor has clearly taken a strong view of the Irish form.


Betting is all about value, and at 33/1 currently with Paddy Power Wotzizname strikes me as outstanding EW value , and those are odds which I can only see contracting before raceday , with the concession of NRNB now being in place he rates a must bet for me.


Selection: Wotzizname ...... EW @33/1 ( Paddy Power ) NRNB
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412109

2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412443

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