Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Gman84
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:46 am

Nicky Henderson has ruled out Daphne Du Clos. Was near the top of he betting so a few around it may shorten a touch.
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby tbuckley » Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:29 am

my blog covering look at Winner SP of selection of Festival races including the Champion Bumper :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412396

Going from 2004 to 2016, the SP of winners of the Champion Bumper have been :- 7/2f, 33/1, 11/2, 12/1, 9/2, 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1, 16/1, 9/2f & 5/1 - A glance at those historical winner SP's shows that up until the last 2 years it had not been a great race for the favourites or market leaders, prior to last 2 well fancied winners only other well backed winner in the period covered was in 2005, only 1 other winner priced under 10/1 and that was 2009, five of the last 7 Champion Bumper winners have come in at 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 16/1.

hope that interests & helps people in some way.
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Gman84
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:27 am

Good stuff tbuckley and gives me hope for my long shot I mentioned a couple of runs back who will run it seems:

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/ho ... -1-8426542
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Zipster » Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:46 pm

This is my profile which I have setup for this year's Champion Bumper! I am looking for a runner who ran at a flat track (as described by RP) over either 2m or 2m½f on ground with some cut in it and who were sent off now bigger than 5/2 in their run before coming to this race. This profile produced the winner in 2011, 2012, 2014 & 2016 so 4 of the last 6 times this race has been run and the two which my profile highlight are Sam's Adventure & Golden Jeffrey.

Sam's Adventure has the benefit of more experience at the racetrack having made his debut last season, he has won 3 of his 4 starts with his only defeat coming to Better Getalong who holds an entry here also but will be 8lb better off for this for a short head defeat, you would expect him to reverse that form. Golden Jeffrey is in his debut season and with just two starts under his belt, was a convincing winner at Ayr last time out but comes here as a 4yo and they tend to struggle in this race, the only winner was back in 2010.

For me I think the more experienced Sam's Adventure would be the pick of the two, the runner up from his win last time out has since been out to win, his win at Newbury has produced multiple winners including Tara View who has been out to win 4 from 5 and he beat Spirit of Kayf on debut who has been out to win twice including a Cl2 at Newcastle so there has been plenty of runners finishing in behind him each time franking the form.

At the moment the 33/1 available on him looks a great price despite the big jump in class but lets also not forget that he is a Cl2 winner also.
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Nephilim » Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:56 pm

I see Gman84 has mentioned Irish Roe at decent odds of around 33/1....some builders who like the black stuff at my local have been bigging this one up and said the dead heat was down to a poor ride and should of won. They have next week off and are hoping to be off the following week too if this one comes in.

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:24 pm

I see Gman84 has mentioned Irish Roe at decent odds of around 33/1....some builders who like the black stuff at my local have been bigging this one up and said the dead heat was down to a poor ride and should of won. They have next week off and are hoping to be off the following week too if this one comes in.
It's good to know you aren't the only one who likes a horse!

I'm not sure I'd be as quick to blame Graham Lee as your builder mates have been. Irish Roe fair flew up the hill which is very encouraging but she showed her inexperience also as I think Lee wanted to stay closer to the rail but having let the rein out in order to let her accelerate then he's used the whip to get an effort she's lost a bit of control of where she's going and has wandered off a true line, cutting behind the leader and going around the long way which has just stopped her momentum. I don't see what Lee could really have done bar try and put the brakes on and correct her or swap hands earlier with the whip which would likely have lost momentum either way and probably worse. I just think it's one of those things, Lee would probably want the ride back in a way but I don't think he could really help what happened.

The way she quicken is very impressive though and if you watch the whole race, about a mile out you don't think she's going that well but once the race gets going, she's in her element.
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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:56 am

Mares have a relatively poor record in this race and have failed to provide the winner during the past 10 years, however having just scored all the 5 day entries for my trends based blog (see link below), I have identified that 3 of the 7 qualifiers are members of the fairer sex, which suggests that there is a reasonable chance that this trend may be broken this year.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper Key Race Trends – 15 March 2017 – Updated on 10 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412304

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Micko70 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:36 pm

5 pass the trends at the 5 day stage

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412383

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Re: Bumper - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Senisss » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:43 pm

I was at Leopardstown when Bakmaj won the bumper. The horse was beaten by the current market leader on its debut but won very, very costly and at 16/1 is worth a little e/way punt.

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