Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

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Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:17 am

Thoughts...

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby jackh1092 » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:48 pm

One high up in the Market Mega Fortune given 146 today by Phil Smith. Basically rules him out of this, and to be honest not sure we should be surprised, he finished very close to two Triumph hopefuls so it was unlikely that he'd be handicapped appropriately for this!

Albeit 146 is a funny one....
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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Micko70 » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:09 pm

Looks like it Jack

133 is the maximum any horse has won this race with, Diego Du Charmil in 2016 & Crackaway Jack in 2008

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:11 pm

The highest rated runner in the last 4 years was Blood Cotil in 2013, who was rated 144. The next three years saw the top weight rated 139, 141 and 142. Fixe Le Kap was that 142 rated horse last year and he finished 8th, giving 9 lbs to the 133 rated winner Diego Du Charmil from the Nicholls stable.

Paul Nicholls has landed the last two runnings and will obviously have contenders again in a bid for the hat-trick.

At this early stage I would be looking for something rated between 125 and 135, who has the scope to run and hopefully win again to leave a mark likely to get in the race but not to be over burdened.

My early fancy is Don Bersy from the Tom Symonds stable. This Gelding is a son of Califet and he has only run three times, once in France and twice for his current trainer.

On his UK debut at Warwick he was sent off at 8/1 and travelled really well all the way, approaching the 5th flight he was coasting along in third and looking set to run a big race but he somehow knuckled on landing and fell.

Next time up Don Bersy faced a seemingly thankless task against an Alan King trained hotpot at 1/3. Sent off 7/1 he travelled well and came into the business end of the race seemingly going better than the favourite if anything. Having looked likely to score comfortably Don Bersy found that the favourite kept tabs on him for a while, but popping over the last it was Don Bersy who stayed on the better and he scored well in receipt of 6 lbs from Coeur De Lion, who was hot favourite due to having run second to Defi Du Seuil, the Triumph Hurdle favourite, previously.

Don Bersy is entered up back at Warwick on Thursday, where his 127 rating gives him the right to be one of the leading contenders. He has to carry 7lbs extra because he's won a race but he remains with tons of scope to improve. Even if he wins and goes up,he should still have a workable mark for Cheltenham and he finished strongly at Sandown last time. Fixe Le Kap won that Warwick race last year, so the stepping stone to Cheltenham has been used before.

In a race of if's and buts, I think Don Bersy is a decent shout at 20/1, with the hope of another win on Thursday enhancing his claims for the Fred Winter.

Fred Winter Don Bersy 20/1 for some ante-post interest in the race.
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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Micko70 » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:37 pm

9 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 127 & 133

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:13 pm

9 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 127 & 133
Amazing looking back to Crack Away Jack's year and seeing Thousand Stars only 8th off a mark of 130. The horse would go on to become a regular sparring partner of Hurricane Fly and become rated 164 at his peak. He also trousered a lot of Euros over in France.
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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:25 pm

One high up in the Market Mega Fortune given 146 today by Phil Smith. Basically rules him out of this, and to be honest not sure we should be surprised, he finished very close to two Triumph hopefuls so it was unlikely that he'd be handicapped appropriately for this!

Albeit 146 is a funny one....
146 is a ridiculous mark. He is 133 on the Irish Ratings and 135 on Racing Post Ratings.

He was third to Bapaume and that horse is 137 with both the above ratings. There's no way you could keep a straight face and say he is nine pounds better than Willie's horse.

May as well send the trainer a card with an extended middle finger regarding participation at Cheltenham.
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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:21 am

Just out of interest, to clarify the issue for punters, Im certainly unclear.

If you've backed him Ante Post, is it void because he was not eligable to run, or is it merely a loser?

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:02 am

Just out of interest, to clarify the issue for punters, Im certainly unclear.

If you've backed him Ante Post, is it void because he was not eligable to run, or is it merely a loser?
These are the Sky Bet rules regarding the matter of non-runners on ante-post bets:-

"4.) If a horse race is postponed to another day then Ante Post bets stand. However, in the event of the following occurrences happening bets on the market will be void.-

The race is abandoned.
The race is officially declared void.
The conditions of the race are altered after bets are made (as defined under Tattersalls' Rules).
A horse is balloted out under The Jockey Club Rules of Racing.
The venue is altered.
The running surface is altered (e.g. Turf to Dirt/All Weather or vice versa).
The entries of the race are reopened."



Ante-Post bets are normally settle on an "All-in, run or not, entered or not" basis. In most instances you will lose if the horse does not show up.

In races where horses are balloted out to reduce the field to the deemed safe maximum size, the lowest rated horses are eliminated and in that scenario you will get your money refunded. The Sky Bet rules above mention the other situations where you will be refunded.

The 1993 Grand National was one where the abandonment meant I had to recover all the "Dead" ante-post bets for refunding. Those who were out of the race at various stages were discarded but suddenly became due for voiding because you cannot lose money on a race that never took place.

In most scenarios balloting out if the best chance you have of a refund. That is next to impossible for the horse in question here,as he would probably be top-weight if declared.

Sorry if that's bad news.
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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:22 am

No Id not backed him, just interested.

Effectively all the bookmakers are offering prices about a horse who can't possibly run, doesn't seem quite right to me!

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:22 am

No Id not backed him, just interested.

Effectively all the bookmakers are offering prices about a horse who can't possibly run, doesn't seem quite right to me!

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Re: Fred Winter Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby jackh1092 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:31 am

One high up in the Market Mega Fortune given 146 today by Phil Smith. Basically rules him out of this, and to be honest not sure we should be surprised, he finished very close to two Triumph hopefuls so it was unlikely that he'd be handicapped appropriately for this!

Albeit 146 is a funny one....
146 is a ridiculous mark. He is 133 on the Irish Ratings and 135 on Racing Post Ratings.

He was third to Bapaume and that horse is 137 with both the above ratings. There's no way you could keep a straight face and say he is nine pounds better than Willie's horse.

May as well send the trainer a card with an extended middle finger regarding participation at Cheltenham.
If Willie had entered Bapaume in a handicap in ENG he would've received a rating much higher than 137 as well..Phil Smith clearly thinks the form is quite strong and to be fair to him, Finishing so close to two quite highly fancied Triumph runners, does suggest he shouldnt be given a mark for the Fred Winter IMO. It is also very likely the track will suit him better.

Not condoning the mad rating but, at the same time he obviously doesnt want to let him in the FW.
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