Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:35 pm

She's top rated on RPR ratings (160) and agree on the Course and distance suiting as she ran well enough in the Truimph last year but clearly didn't have the speed gears when at the business end so further is ideal. Again it's the issue of backing antepost whether you risk the price without NRNB, 16's with several firms, or take shorter with NRNB with 10's the best from SkyBet and bet365 and Paddy Power a rather disgraceful 8/1!

Getting weight off the boys I'd love to see her make this a more competitive field. How all the novice hurdles shape up over the coming weeks is going to be one of the major things to follow IMO. Lots of nice horses, lots of trainers and owners being coy on where they will actually go.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:49 pm

She's top rated on RPR ratings (160) and agree on the Course and distance suiting as she ran well enough in the Truimph last year but clearly didn't have the speed gears when at the business end so further is ideal. Again it's the issue of backing antepost whether you risk the price without NRNB, 16's with several firms, or take shorter with NRNB with 10's the best from SkyBet> and bet365> and Paddy Power> a rather disgraceful 8/1!

Getting weight off the boys I'd love to see her make this a more competitive field. How all the novice hurdles shape up over the coming weeks is going to be one of the major things to follow IMO. Lots of nice horses, lots of trainers and owners being coy on where they will actually go.
Surely that figure is incorrect Gman? The Racing Post Website have her as 146 rated and her official rating is 147.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:08 pm

Chaps, you are both right in a way.

LB - Let's Dance does have a career best RPR of 146 against her current OR of 147.

Gman - Her adjusted (racecard) RPR is 160, which is calculated from her career best figure of 146, to which 14 lbs has been added to make 160 as she would carry 11 stone whereas adjusted RPRs are based on runners carrying 12 stone in National Hunt races.

Hope this helps to clarify the apparent anomaly.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:39 pm

Cheers Rob I just took it off the card on their site, I generally don't pay RPR'snthe biggest amount of attention so not sure why I did this time guess the figure just stuck out to me.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:07 am

The Neptune Hurdle hasn't been a Mares race and Let's Dance must be badly in now with the late 14 lb "Penalty" :P

I think it's important to strive for accuracy, for the benefit of the forum, and 160 for Let's Dance clearly stood out as the wrong figure.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:41 am

I agree LB, accuracy is vital, but it is not true that Lets Dance has a 14 lbs penalty.

Her basic RPR is 146, but as the adjusted (racecard) RPRs are calculated based on a horse carrying 12 stone, but she will only be carrying 11 stone if she runs in this race, hence her adjusted RPR of 160 (146+14).

Gelding are set to carry 11.07, so their basic RPR is only raised by 7 lbs to calculate their adjusted RPR.

Let's Dance is tachnically the highest rated entry based on adjusted RPRs and definitely doesn't have a 14 lb penalty.

I hope this makes sense this time.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:52 pm

I agree LB, accuracy is vital, but it is not true that Lets Dance has a 14 lbs penalty.

Her basic RPR is 146, but as the adjusted (racecard) RPRs are calculated based on a horse carrying 12 stone, but she will only be carrying 11 stone if she runs in this race, hence her adjusted RPR of 160 (146+14).

Gelding are set to carry 11.07, so their basic RPR is only raised by 7 lbs to calculate their adjusted RPR.

Let's Dance is tachnically the highest rated entry based on adjusted RPRs and definitely doesn't have a 14 lb penalty.

I hope this makes sense this time.
I fully understand the process Rob. I was just having a wee joke about the "Penalty" hence the inverted commas and the tongue sticking out of the mouth Smiley :P

I don't use the adjusted ratings at all. It just leads to confusion. It is best to use the base rating and then allow for any weight concessions. It just makes for clearer calculations. If someone were to pick up on the 160 figure and then allow another 7 lbs for the weight concession, they would end up with a wildly inaccurate figure.

Something I do with the Novice races in particular is to have a rough idea of what rating previous winners of races came into the Festival on. That way, when you see a rating that looks high, you immediately get suspicious of a higher figure.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:11 pm

OK LB, your joke was just too subtle for me to grasp.

However, which ever way the calculation is done, Let's Dance is currently the highest rated runner in the race based on RPRs, when taking into her 7 lbs mares' allowance, irrespective of whether we work on the adjusted RPR of 160, or the base figure of 146 to which is added the 7 lbs mares' allowance to give a figure of 153.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:44 pm

I have Finian's Oscar highest rated here. Although he was awarded 149 by the handicapper, I believe it was worthy of more than that. Capitaine is a good hurdler in his own right and there was an air of authority about the way Finian's Oscar put him to the sword, at a trip arguably short of what will be ideal.

Lough Derg Spirit is a reasonably well established yardstick, most recently seen serving it up to Peter The Mayo Man. Lough Derg Spirit is rated 137 but was 8 lengths in arrears of Capitaine, who was defeated cosily by Finian's Oscar in the Tolworth.

I have Finian's Oscar on 155 and I will be surprised if he doesn't come out of the Cheltenham Festival rated in excess of 160.

Has a mare ever won the Neptune? The last mare I can see in the race was Ruthenoise, for the Pipe stable back in 2009. She was on a fools errand that day, as she was only rated 120 and despite getting 7lbs for her sex and an extra 9 lbs for being 4YO, she was out of it as 100/1 shot on the day.

Let's Dance would be going against the recent trends if turning up for the Neptune.

Neon Wolf could obviously be anything and has to be respected but I think Finian's Oscar is very unexposed at the Neptune trip and I just feel he has the gears for whichever way the race pans out.

I did toy with a saver on Neon Wolf at double figures, probably slightly regretting that I didn't but Finian's Oscar thrashed a seemingly highly regarded Harry Fry horse who was a shade odds on at Hereford, and he just travelled so much better than the favourite all the way into the closing stages.

I would still back Finian's Oscar at 4/1, rather than scrape around for a supposedly better value horse.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:25 am

I think there have been seven mares run with one placed and that's not a big enough sample to put me off. She's a front runner and Ruby from the front at Cheltenham sounds good to me.

I've risked the bigger price in some bets, have her as NRNB with some of my stronger fancies / naps

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:24 pm

NRNB is the best way to go with Let's Dance.

Rich Ricci recently said "The New Course at Cheltenham, on which the racing on the Thursday and Friday of the festival takes place, would suit her and so she has plenty of options.

"I would say at this stage the Dawn Run mares novice race on the Thursday of the Festival looks the most likely race for her in my view."


The stable staff will be hoping so, because there is a 50,000 Euro bonus for them if she follows up her last win with a Cheltenham success.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:22 pm

Here's an interesting one, Neon Wolf.

Betfair Sportsbook push him out to a massive 13/2.......sister company and partner Paddy Power shorten him into 3's favourite.

What am I missing here?

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