Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:07 pm

Well Gigginstown have made this mistake before and i'll definitely take him on at those prices.

Wholestone is 16s, won at the distance and won a good trial in the Bristol.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:39 am

Well Gigginstown have made this mistake before and i'll definitely take him on at those prices.

Wholestone is 16s, won at the distance and won a good trial in the Bristol.
If he gets there safe and sound, 100%, over 3 miles......he'll hose up :win:

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Derbz87 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:59 pm

Regarding Death Duty my only concern might have been his lack of quick ground or even good-soft experience, for one they view as a future staying chaser a quick ground Neptune wouldn't sit well. As it is he's going for the Albert Bartlett which is an all out stamina test and I don't think the ground will worry them one iota over that sort of trip. Wholestone hasn't done much wrong so far and he does have the course and distance form to boot but with all due respect Gordan Elliot's been quoted as saying Death Duty at this stage of his career is the best he's ever trained and that is some serious accolade for one they've always viewed as a chaser in waiting and considering who they have trained down the years.

You wouldn't want to say it too loudly but he's the heir apparent to Don Cossack's sadly vacated place at the head of their staying chasers division if he takes to fences next season and you would not be suprised at all if this time in two years (potentially next year if he's seriously smart) we are looking at a realistic Gold Cup contender. It could all be hype but I don't get the feeling from Elliot's interviews that he is one to blow smoke out of his own backend without just cause.

In terms of the Neptune Finian's Oscar's claims are obvious enough but I do think Peregrine Run warrants respect, much in the same regard as Wholestone (who he's beaten incidently) he's been to Cheltenham and won a Grade 2 on quick ground over the trip. I'd like to see him come out and run at Warwick this weekend because I'd imagine that would cement plans in terms of the Neptune rather than the Albert Bartlett, he probably wouldn't be disgraced in the longer race either although he's untried over the trip. As a 7 year-old he certainly strikes you as more of a Unowhatimeanharry improver with age type than a potential future star as Finians Oscar might be, although to be fair it hasn't worked out too badly for Harry Fry et al so far with last years Albert Bartlett winner and he could be a star himself.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:46 pm

It isn't an exact science but breeding suggests a stiff 3 miles could be beyond Death Duty. Very few Shantou's are as good at 3 miles as they are at 2 1/2. Polly Peachum was similarly bred to Death Duty ( by Shantou out of a Presenting mare ) and she won several times at 2 1/2, once at 2m 6f ( but almost caught on the line ) and yet beaten both times at 3 miles ( including when odds on in the OLBG Mares Hurdle at Kempton )

As Derbz says, there's a lack of experience on decent ground and his action is rather choppy.

No doubting he's a good horse and i've backed him a few times but he hasn't yet raced at 3 miles and pedigree for it isn't copper bottomed

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Leicester Bigot » Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:41 pm

Regarding Blow By Blow, who beat Death Duty, Gordon Elliott had this update:-

"I'd say he's a very good horse but he had a little setback and he's just back cantering now actually," said Elliott.

"I don't know if I'll run him over hurdles this year, I might leave him and go back for one of the championship bumpers, either that or a graded hurdle. He certainly won't be running in a maiden hurdle at this time of year.

"He beat Death Duty. I was disappointed at the time and thought the bubble had burst, but it just shows how good a horse he is that he beat Death Duty.

"He'll be a big three-mile chaser."


That must raise questions for him in this race and the Albert Bartlett for anyone thinking of him ante-post.

Only one bookie (Sporting Bet) going 5/1 Finian's Oscar for the Neptune now. 4/1 everywhere else, with 9/2 on Betfair.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:38 pm

I think if it's soft they could run Finian's Rainbow in, what appears to be, a very winnable Supreme.

A very interesting couple of weeks ahead with trials in Ireland and the Trials Day itself at Cheltenham

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby tbuckley » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:03 pm

Another great read, absolutely brilliant to read the detailed analysis and reasoning people are giving for their own selections.

With regards to Finian's Oscar then I've arrived very late to the party in backing him for this race, as those of you who know me do know that I've always followed the Potts horses very closely & I was told about the purchase of Finian's Oscar for £250,000 after winning a point to point, basically with the added comment along the lines of they think he's exciting.

I didn't contemplate backing him ante-post for Cheltenham as I just wanted to see him run first as I didn't know anymore about him other that the comment about being exciting, after watching him win so impressively at Hereford it was instantly clear that he was a very exciting horse indeed.

I still wanted to see where he went & what he did after that race as plenty of horses can look amazing winning novice hurdles and then end up being nothing special, so it was exciting to see when the Tolworth Hurdle was mentioned for him.

Clearly after that Hereford win a lot more people knew about him & the vibes coming out of the Tizzard yard were very strong so as soon as the ante-post betting came up for the Tolworth I had a little dabble at 9/4, the money kept coming for him and they clearly knew as he stormed to a great win as a very well backed 11/10 shot.

That's when I first thought about Cheltenham for him and I thought that the Neptune was the race, don't get me wrong I think he would do very well in the Supreme Novice but I think the Neptune would suit him better and so far I don't think we've seen a horse with a more rock solid profile for the Neptune than Finian's Oscar, you always fear something coming from nowhere, well from Ireland, but I don't see anything in England to fear and I do expect Finian's Oscar to continue to be very well backed for this race, of course for those not sure then you can take advantage of those bookmakers who offer prices on them to win any Cheltenham race, that might be a sensible back up approach.

I really hope Finian's Oscar continues to perform and develop as he has done already and becomes the high class horse Alan Potts has chased since Sizing Europe retired.
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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Robmull » Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:54 pm

I have just posted the first iteration of my trends based blog for this race (see link below), in which 5 of the top 7 horses in the betting have either achieved, or exceeded the minimum threshold score of 64 points.

However, all 5 of the qualifiers have alternative entries in either the Supreme, or the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdles, so it is difficult to know just who will turn up for this race on the day.

Neptune Investment Management Baring Novices’ Hurdle Key Race Trends – 15 March 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412258

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby evertoncal » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:04 pm

They are really useful, thank you.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby horseracinglife » Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:45 pm

I think William Henry would have a massive chance in this race.I think if the ground is good he will run a big race and i think his price for this race is way too big in my opinion.Does anyone agree with me on this topic?.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Gman84 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:53 am

I think William Henry would have a massive chance in this race.I think if the ground is good he will run a big race and i think his price for this race is way too big in my opinion.Does anyone agree with me on this topic?.
He's been given a rating of 132 and the last race, behind the useful looking Wholestone, was a first crack at 2 and a half miles. However, that's compared to 149 that Finian's Oscar and the 143 Messire Des Obeaux has. Opening marks are always tough to judge but can at least give a hint to ability and what they have achieved so far. If you believe William Henry can still improve then the 25's available is the best price around although with a firm that is NRNB then 20's is the best you can find.

I think FInian's Oscar is going to be a tough nut to crack but I do like Messire Des Obeaux despite getting nipped at Huntington last week. The counter to that is Ballyandy has franked his earlier form when he beat him in the The Winter Hurdle at Sandown and Ami Desbois who he beat in the Challow has also gone on and won. MDO is a best priced 12/1 with several firms who aren't NRNB yet but if you want NRNB then 10's with bet365 is the best around.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:21 pm

Still hoping ( with hint of expectation ) that Let's Dance is given her chance here. They have horses for the Mares races and she looks ideal for course and distance.

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