Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

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Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:09 am

Thoughts...

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:06 pm

Invitation Only to clash with Death Duty on Sunday at Navan.......I'm sure somebody will duck it, too early for a clash like this!

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby DannyCraig » Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:04 am

I've been chipping away at invitation only for this race. Death duty looks more of an AB type. Not expecting this match up to go ahead and think IO will reroute elsewhere

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:22 am

That's the way I see it, but you never know with Gigginstown, they can make some odd race choices at the last minute.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:57 am

Something has gone seriously wrong if Invitation Only wins the Neptune, in my opinion :D Might win a Grade 2 over in Ireland but i think he's one of those second or third tier Mullins horses that mops up easy prize money, although he might improve when sent left handed.

Robin Roe has more substantive form

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:45 am

It's a game of opinions of course......on this one, I think your way off, way, way off :yes:

I think, I hope, he's the real deal, I'm told he is. His last Bumper win seems to be working out pretty well, the 3rd has won twice, the 4th sluced up on Sunday.

Listen, he's ran once, he won, the fog really didn't allow us to see how he won, lets see him up next to decide!

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:14 pm

Well it's on, not sure I wanted it to be on, but the 2 big guns at the head of the Neptune & Albert Bartlett races clash on Sunday at Navan.

Death Duty is 6/4 trying to give away 3lbs to Invitation Only who is 5/2.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby DannyCraig » Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:37 pm

Looking forward to this, but unless it's a dead heat with them pulling 20+ lengths clear of third, my antepost book might not be looking as strong. The 5/2 on invitation only could look to be very big post-race.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:49 pm

Deathy Duty won easily but i think connections will be making a mistake if they step him up in trip and i'd be opposing him in the Albert Bartlett. He's bred for 2 1/2 miles and that's where he should stay.

Invitation Only shouldn't be written off yet but 16s is about right, in my opinion.

The markets for these novice races are mad. It's a very strange year, as if backers and layers are both expecting an awesome horse to dominate but then the odds are slashed when a previously unbeaten horse tastes defeat. Certainly proves the lack of money that's on these market leaders in the first place and the false prices for many of these inexperienced jumpers.

A big problem for 2 1/2 mile hurdlers is that there's no Cheltenham race for them once out of novice company. Trainers are forced to decide whether to drop them back to 2, up to 3 or send them chasing. One common argument is that " there's always Aintree ", which i find ridiculous. You wouldn't tell 200m runners that there's no race for them at the Olympics but they can wait until the World Championships.

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:46 pm

I think he'll be a shoe-on over 3 miles, pure class.

The key here is ground for me, not sure Invitational Only relished that going, Ruby seemed to be checking a few times during the contest.

I wouldn't right off IO, but I think he was disappointing.

Death Duty imo, needs 3 miles all day long...........however, I would say that, im on at 33's!

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby The Market Man » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:24 pm

Why does he need 3 miles all day long when he's unbeaten and winning Graded races at 2 1/2 ? He might win at 3 miles but he's doing this easily enough at present and better Spring ground should suit. He's not raced over three miles yet. If he goes for the Albert Bartlett it could be due to Gigginstown already having a quicker type for the Neptune but we haven't see one yet and it's mid December...which brings me back to Blow By Blow.
It would be nice for the RP or a trade journalist to ask Elliott about the horse's well being.

Connections made a similar mistake with Shantou Village, in my opinion. No need at all to step him up in trip as a novice and should have been in the Neptune, not the Albert Bartlett

Invitation Only was a terrible price before today - winner of a Gowran maiden in adverse conditions and the hype gives him a false price. This is partly why many people are complaining about the antepost markets for these races.

It's mid December and only a couple of horses at the head of the Neptune market have won a relevant prep race !

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Re: Neptune Novices Hurdle - Wednesday 15th March 2017 (Day 2)

Postby Brownie3 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:33 am

I think Elliott and Gigginstown see him as a 3 mile chaser, as such its the logical route to take.

I understand the view your taking, ie he's unbeaten over 20f, why change and step up to 3m. However, I'd argue 2 points to step up, the ground will be quicker, and the pace stronger. He looks a horse who gallops to me.

I don't think he lacks tactical speed, but for me the Neptune is a race where you need speed, look at the some of the previous winners, id argue there is more speed than stamina, Istabraq back in the day, Yorkhill, The New One etc etc, these to me are all horses who stepped back in trip.

They ain't planning Champion hurdles with Death Duty!

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